Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Belgian GP tips, odds and race preview as Verstappen wins sprint race

Formula One state of play 

We might have all seen the writing on the wall, but the timing of Christian Horner’s removal from his long-held Team Principal (TP) role took the spray can, covered the whole wall, and then set fire to it, before burning down the whole house. 

After 20 years at the helm of Red Bull Racing, including six constructors titles, eight drivers’ championships and 124 victories, a string of controversies over the last 18 months has finally seen his time leading the team come to a sudden, abrupt end.

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There are so many questions that remain unanswered: 

Why now? 

What was the actual reason? 

Will he return to F1? 

Will the team survive without Horner? And perhaps most significantly, Will Max Verstappen stay at Red Bull?

Without a crystal ball and lacking hard facts a lot of those questions will remain unanswered for the time being. 

What we do know at this point is that Laurent Mekies has been promoted from TP at the junior team – Racing Bulls and is now CEO and TP at Red Bull but there will be much more control from the Austrian HQ. 

Read: What is a double bet and how does it work?

Will we see Horner back in F1 in the future? He’s already been linked to Ferrari and Alpine. Plus, while a period of leave is bound to be in his contract, I can’t see Horner walking away from the sport forever, no matter how big his payout might be. 

So yes, I do see him taking another role in F1 and the most likely place does appear to be Alpine, but let’s wait and see.

And the biggest question: Will Verstappen stay at Red Bull, or have they already lost their star driver to Mercedes? 

Time will tell, but with such a big regulation change next year and a lack of concrete information to go on until the cars hit the track for testing in 2026. 

The smart money is on the four-time drivers’ world champion staying put for at least one more year before making an informed decision so he can pick the ‘winning’ car for 2027 and beyond. 

That means another year at Mercedes for George Russell and their young super-talent, Kimi Antonelli.

A harmonious decision rather than the ructions of throwing in a Verstappen-shaped grenade. 

Belgian Grand Prix odds

Belgian Grand Prix predictions 

Right, enough gossip, after Lando Norris bagged the win at Silverstone, let’s deal with some cold, hard facts ahead of the Belgium GP. 

It’s a sprint weekend, with rain in the air in the Ardennes Forest, and an intriguing tyre selection from Pirelli. It’s all set up to be a barn stormer.

Tyre-starter - how Pirelli has mixed things up 

Oscar Piastri leads the championship by a slim eight points after Lando Norris’ win at Silverstone last time out. McLaren are sitting pretty in the constructors with 460 points. Ferrari have 222 points and Mercedes 210. Look at that lead!

Little known fact: Norris is half Belgian – his mum Cisca was born in Flanders. However, Norris has never finished higher than 5th at his second home-race. 

Last year, a stunning one-stop masterclass (M/H) from George Russell saw him cross the line in first place. Toto Wolff calling him the ‘tyre whisperer’. 

However, he was later disqualified (his car was under-weight) promoting his teammate Hamilton to race winner (two stop M/H/H), with Piastri second and Charles Leclerc (pole) in third.

Pirelli have decided to mix things up, bringing the C1 (hardest tyre) and then jumping a compound to the C3 (medium) and C4 (soft). This is a deliberate move to force teams away from a one-stop ’processional’ race.

Spa is an historic, undulating, challenging, high-speed track that weaves through the Ardennes Forest. 

A marathon not a sprint…

It’s the longest track of the year at 7.004km meaning the Grand Prix is just 44 laps. The weather (wet and cold) could cause issues for Ferrari and help Mercedes and McLaren…Max will do Max. So, I’d pick a McLaren top two with either Russell or Verstappen being best of the rest.

Verstappen sets the fastest time: The Dutchman has set the fastest time in qualifying the last three years. (2022, 23, 24) but didn’t start on pole due to penalties.

Safety Car: 64%

Pit Stop loss: 19s

2024 overtakes: 36

Distance to T1 braking: 137m

Won from pole 21 times

FIRST’s top tip for Belgian GP

Piastri to win: The leader in the drivers’ championship was unlucky to pick up his penalty at Silverstone and will want to come back strong. 

Read: What is a sports betting strategy and tips to make it happen

The McLaren’s are still the cars to beat and with Oscar’s form being slightly better that Lando’s at this race, I’m back the Aussie racer for the win.

Pick: Oscar Piastri to win the Belgian GP - 13/8 (10bet) 

Extra tips 

McLaren 1-2: The Woking based team have recorded six 1-2 finishes this season. Another this weekend (which seems likely) would be the first time since 1988 that McLaren would have recorded six 1-2 results in a single year.

Pick: Norris and Piastri to finish in the top two + Number of classified cars over 17.5 & more than 2.5 leaders (was 11/2) NOW 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

Win by less than five seconds: 14 of the last 25 Belgian Grands Prix have been won by less than five seconds and by less than a second on five occasions, most recently in 2024.

Pick: Race winning margin - under five seconds - 8/11 (10bet)

Pole to podium: Since 2007 the polesitter has always finished on the podium.

Pick: To win qualifying and to win the race:
Oscar Piastri - 10/3
Lando Norris - 7/2
Max Verstappen - 6/1

(10bet)

Ferrari have the most poles at Spa – a record 13 – including the last three years. However, they haven’t won a race since 2019 when Leclerc got his first ever F1 win.

Pick: Belgian Grand Prix qualifying winner: Charles Leclerc - 12/1 / Ferrari - 6/1 (10bet)

Only six GPs in Spa have been red flagged but with rain forecast on and off for this weekend, you might find this Sunday’s race is rain affected and could see a red flag.

All English Club: If you fancy back the Brits how about England to win the Euros (they play Spain on Sunday evening) combined with Norris to win the race.

Pick: Lando Norris to win the Belgian GP and England Women to win the 2025 European Championship - 6.5/1 (+650 moneyline) (Ladbrokes)

All square: Because it’s a sprint weekend there are extra points available, and it could see Norris and Piastri tied on points at the top of the standings. 

If that had happened Piastri would still lead due to the number of wins.

Pick - sprint winner: Lando Norris - 2/1 (Ladbrokes)
Pick - race winner: Oscar Piastri - 7/4 (Ladbrokes)

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructors standings

FIRST’s recommended Formula 1 Belgian GP betting sites 

FIRST's expert team have put their heads together to come up with three of the best formula 1 bookmakers to make their move on the Belgian Grand Prix this weekend.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.