Premier League betting tips: Matchweek 11 preview

By Andrew Beasley

It’s a big weekend in the Premier League as Manchester City and Arsenal look to bounce back from recent defeats they suffered in both domestic and European fixtures. Two of last season’s top four clash when Liverpool host Aston Villa, while the bottom two in the table meet in a huge match between Wolves and Southampton. 

Brentford vs Bournemouth betting tips

They may not be the first name to come to mind but Brentford have been the best home team in the Premier League this season. While that is helped by a favourable schedule, it’s not as if Bournemouth have been great on the road.

As impressive as their victories over Arsenal and Manchester City were, the Cherries would currently be winless away from home had they not come back from being 2-0 down at Everton in the 86th minute. Expected goal data suggests backing Brentford to be arguably the best value pick of the weekend. 

Scoreline prediction

Brentford 2-1 Bournemouth (31/4 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Brentford to win (14/9 with Matchbook)

Crystal Palace vs Fulham betting tips

This match should be close. The last three meetings (and four of the last five) have ended level, while only Ipswich have drawn more games than Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season.

However, Fulham’s underlying numbers are seriously good. If expected goals decided games, Marco Silva’s side would be second in the table. The data suggests the Eagles deserve a few more points but they’re not that good. 

Against a Palace team which is struggling to generate good chances, the visitors stand a great chance of collecting three points. 

Scoreline prediction

Crystal Palace 0-2 Fulham (53/5 with Betgrouse)

FIRST’s top tip:

Fulham to win (9/5 with Matchbook)

West Ham vs Everton betting tips

Only three grounds in the top flight have seen more goals than the London Stadium so far this season. Every match has featured at least three, with both teams scoring in four of the Hammers’ five league games under Julen Lopetegui. Apart from the 3-0 loss to Chelsea, each fixture has seen one side score before then conceding an equaliser. 

This fixture tends to be low-scoring, as Everton’s last three away matches have been. It feels like the chaotic nature of West Ham’s games, with chances galore at both ends, should overpower that though. 

Scoreline prediction

West Ham 2-1 Everton (141/20 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (Evens with Matchbook)

Wolves vs Southampton betting tips

The biggest match of the weekend in many ways. If one side loses, their manager will not sleep so easily in the forthcoming international break. 

It should be entertaining, as neither team looks capable of keeping it a game tight even if they wanted to. Don’t be fooled by Southampton’s narrow 1-0 loss at Manchester City in their last away game. The champions had the chances to score three; just as Brentford, Bournemouth and Arsenal did when hosting the Saints. 

As for Wolves, every home game has seen them score while also conceding at least twice. The score line could be anything in this one. 

Scoreline prediction

Wolves 3-1 Southampton (16/1 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 3.5 Goals (149/100 with Betgrouse)

Brighton vs Manchester City betting tips

Manchester City have won four of their last six visits to Brighton, scoring at least four goals in each of those games. While they aren’t in that sort of form, the Seagulls’ recent home matches suggest there will be plenty of goals.

The last five games at the Amex Stadium have all seen both teams score at least twice. The last two were goalless entering the 45th minute, so get set for late drama. 

With City a lot shakier defensively in Rodri’s continued absence, there’s no reason to think this won’t be as entertaining. 

Scoreline prediction

Brighton 2-2 Manchester City (103/10 with Betgrouse)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (7/9 with Matchbook)

Liverpool vs Aston Villa betting tips

Having started the season well on the road, Aston Villa will be very wary of their trip to Liverpool having let a lead slip to lose 4-1 at Tottenham last weekend. They also have one day fewer to prepare than the Reds, having played in Bruges on Wednesday. Unai Emery’s side have also now lost three straight in all competitions. 

For Liverpool, it has been largely business as usual at Anfield. Their 4-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday was their joint-biggest of the season, against a team that had lost less since the start of last season than Manchester City have in the last week. The Reds are in ominous form.

Scoreline prediction

Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa (44/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Under 2.5 Goals (159/100 with MrPlay)

Manchester United vs Leicester betting tips

Manchester United are in limbo, waiting for Ruben Amorim to take over from Erik ten Hag. Even so, it will be hard for Leicester to take advantage of this strange period. It’s less than two weeks since United won this fixture 5-2 in the Carabao Cup, after all.

The Red Devils were the closer of the two to full strength that night, so this should be closer. The data paints this as the likeliest game this weekend to see a goal for both teams and at least three in total, which feels very plausible. Only one of the Foxes’ 10 league matches hasn’t seen them both score and concede.

Scoreline prediction

Manchester United 2-1 Leicester City (34/5 with Betgrouse)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (6/7 with Matchbook)

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle betting tips

Which Newcastle will turn up here? They have beaten Arsenal and Chelsea (in the Carabao Cup) recently but can’t be trusted on the road. In the Premier League, the Magpies have scored five away goals from 8.3 expected. 

It’s hard to see them scoring too many at Nottingham Forest. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are incredibly resolute, having conceded just seven goals in 10 league games. Forest lead the Premier League for matches which featured fewer than three goals, with the only example to the contrary at the City Ground occurring after a first half red card.

Scoreline prediction

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Newcastle (151/20 with Betgrouse)

FIRST’s top tip:

Under 2.5 Goals (21/25 with Betgrouse)

Tottenham vs Ipswich betting tips

As Ipswich continue to search for a first win, it feels hugely unlikely that it will occur at Tottenham, even allowing for their hosts playing away in Turkey on Thursday night. The underlying numbers are stark. Ipswich have generated the fewest expected goals while conceding the most. 

In three of their five away games so far, the Tractor boys have let in four goals, the total Spurs have put past West Ham and Aston Villa at home in the last month. As Ipswich have scored more on the road than the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United, it’s reasonable to assume they will at least avoid a shutout. 

Scoreline prediction

Tottenham 4-1 Ipswich (21/2 with Betgrouse)

FIRST’s top tip:

Tottenham to win and Both Teams to Score (63/50 with MrPlay)

Chelsea vs Arsenal betting tips

Few people would’ve predicted Chelsea to be above Arsenal after 10 games, even if it is only by goal difference. If the Gunners are aiming for 90 points, they’ve already dropped half of the 24 they can afford to let slide.

While the defensive solidity which powered their recent title challenges hasn’t gone entirely, Arsenal are on a run of six league games without a clean sheet. Disregard a cup win over Championship side Preston and Mikel Arteta’s side are winless in five on the road too, with three consecutive losses.

They might still win against an erratic Chelsea side, but the likes of Cole Palmer are going to pose serious problems at Stamford Bridge. 

Scoreline prediction

Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal (169/20 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Chelsea Over 1.5 Goals (5/4 with Betgrouse)

Odds correct at the time of writing.