Premier League betting tips: Matchweek 13 preview

We’ve reached week 13 of the 2024/25 Premier League season. Can Manchester City and Arsenal make up ground on leaders Liverpool this weekend?

Liverpool’s clash with defending champions City is undoubtedly the biggest game of the matchweek, but we also have a couple of London derbies and Ruben Amorim’s first Premier League match in charge at Old Trafford.

Brighton vs Southampton betting tips

When Southampton were last in the Premier League in 2022/23, their two meetings with Brighton saw the Seagulls win 3-1. You must go back six matches to find the last one which was won by the Saints.

And if you make the reasonable assumption that Brighton will win, then goals will inevitably follow. Only Liverpool and Tottenham have won more matches which featured at least three goals this season.

Southampton are joint-top for losses which paid out on over 2.5 goals, with that the outcome in six of their previous eight defeats. The selection for the first game this weekend is obvious. 

Scoreline prediction

Brighton 3-1 Southampton (23/2 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Brighton win and over 2.5 goals (77/100 with Mr.Play)

Brentford vs Leicester betting tips

This is not a fixture which traditionally produces clean sheets. The last five meetings have seen both teams score, with four goals in two of those games.

Neither side has shown much to suggest the trend won’t continue at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday. Brentford’s matches have averaged 3.7 goals in the league this season, the second most of any side, with Leicester (3.17) only a few places below them in the standings. 

The Bees drew 0-0 last week after suffering a first half red card. Assuming they keep 11 on the pitch, their usual goal frenzy should follow them. 

Scoreline prediction

Brentford 3-1 Leicester City (19/2 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 3.5 Goals (29/20 with 888 Sport)

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle betting tips

None of Crystal Palace’s last four home games saw more than two goals, with only four in total across those matches. That clashes significantly with Newcastle’s recent away form, with four of their last five matches on the road featuring three or more goals. What’s going to give way here?

It feels like there should be goals. While Palace are the lowest-scoring home side in the Premier League, they have contrived to turn 7.7 expected goals at Selhurst Park into just three in reality. 

With Newcastle both creating and conceding chances in high quantities, there should be goals at both ends.  

Scoreline prediction

Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle (19/2 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (21/20 with Bet365)

Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich betting tips

Only two Premier League stadiums have seen fewer goals than the City Ground so far this season. However, Ipswich are third for total goals in away games and their influence should ensure we see several goals in this match.

Forest are in form for this too, in fairness. Their last four matches have seen a pair of 3-1 score lines and two 3-0s. With three of Ipswich’s previous six games seeing both teams score combined with at least three goals, this could be one of the more entertaining fixtures this week. 

Scoreline prediction

Nottingham Forest 2-1 Ipswich (13/2 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (13/10 with Ladbrokes)

Wolves vs Bournemouth betting tips

Wolves will be bouncing into Molineux having recorded back-to-back wins. While a home victory over Southampton was a minimum requirement, their 4-1 win at Fulham last week was certainly impressive. 

Yet despite Bournemouth being winless in four games on the road, the underlying expected goal (xG) data for this season suggests backing them to win is one of the value plays of the weekend. 

The Cherries have won their last two games at Wolves too. With Gary O’Neil’s men having the worst defensive record in the division, Bournemouth are very capable of winning. 

Scoreline prediction

Wolves 1-2 Bournemouth (10/1 with Bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Bournemouth to win (20/13 with Matchbook)

West Ham vs Arsenal betting tips

Arsenal won this fixture 6-0 in February, with five different players getting on the score sheet. While they will be expecting to head back to North London with three points once again, this match should be much lower scoring. 

The Hammers’ recent home games may suggest otherwise though. Before the recent stalemate with Everton, West Ham’s last four matches at the London Stadium saw three goals with a 3.8 average. 

But keeping games tight on the road has been Arsenal’s style for a few years now. Only Manchester United’s away Premier League games have featured fewer goals in 2024/25.

Scoreline prediction

West Ham 0-2 Arsenal (38/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Under 2.5 goals (5/4 with Unibet)

Chelsea vs Aston Villa betting tips

Last season, Chelsea set a Premier League record for yellow cards, with 109. The fact Sheffield United and Wolves also went past the previous high point shows the direction of travel for discipline in English football.

The Blues averaged 2.9 bookings per game in 2023/24, yet they are collecting 3.75 per match this season, with their fixtures seeing an eye-watering seven on average. Joint second in those standings are Aston Villa, with 5.8, who visit Stamford Bridge this weekend.

Match referee Stuart Attwell has averaged 4.3 yellows per game since the start of last season. He can expect to be reaching for his pocket more often here. 

Scoreline prediction

Chelsea 2-1 Aston Villa (131/20 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 5.5 cards (5/6 with Paddy Power)

Manchester United vs Everton betting tips

Considering some of their poor results which saw Erik ten Hag lose his job, Manchester United have a surprisingly good defensive record. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer league goals this season. 

In Everton, they are hosting a team that is really struggling for goals. They failed to break down 10-man Brentford last weekend, resulting in two goalless draws in a row. 

These two teams are bottom of the league for matches in which both teams scored, so at least one of them should have a zero on their side of the score sheet on Sunday. 

Scoreline prediction

Manchester United 2-0 Everton (7/1 with William Hill)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score: No (Evens with Matchbook)

Tottenham vs Fulham betting tips

Which Tottenham will turn up here? The team that tore apart Manchester City or the side that lost to Ipswich in the match before that?

You could ask similar questions about Fulham. Despite incredibly strong underlying statistics this season, they lost 4-1 to Wolves last time out. They may have a slight advantage here, as Spurs played Roma in the Europa League on Thursday evening. 

Nonetheless, Tottenham tend to win and concede when playing on home turf. With both teams scoring in nine of Fulham’s 12 league games this season, it’s easy to see that happening once again.

Scoreline prediction

Tottenham 3-1 Fulham (44/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Tottenham win and both teams to score (7/4 with 888 Sport)

Liverpool vs Manchester City betting tips

Mohamed Salah loves playing against Manchester City at the best of times, never mind when they arrive at Anfield on the back of a horrendous run of form. Only against Manchester United and West Ham has Salah scored more goals when playing for Liverpool than the current champions. 

The Liverpool talisman was only fit for a substitute appearance when the Citizens visited the Reds in March. Had he been on the pitch at the time, he would have likely scored the penalty from which Alexis Mac Allister equalised. 

The ‘Egyptian King’ has only failed to net in one of his seven Anfield starts against City. With chances likely easier to come by this time around, Salah should score once again.

Scoreline prediction

Liverpool 2-1 Manchester City (36/5 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Mohamed Salah to score any time (8/5 with Bet365)

Odds correct at the time of writing.