UFC 312: Du Plessis vs Strickland 2 betting tips: Will it be repeat or revenge?

Du Plessis vs Strickland 2: Main card

• Dricus Du Plessis (c) vs Sean Strickland – for middleweight title
• Zhang Weili (c) vs Tatiana Suarez – for women’s strawweight title
• Justin Tafa vs Tallison Teixeira
• Jimmy Crute vs Rodolfo Bellato
• Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado 

Preliminary card

• Jack Jenkins vs Gabriel Santos
• Tom Nolan vs Viacheslav Borshchev
• Wang Cong vs Bruna Brasil
• Colby Thicknesse vs Aleksandre Topuria

Early Prelims

• Rongzhu vs Kody Steele
• Jonathan Micallef vs Kevin Jousset
• Quillan Salkilld vs Anshul Jubli
• Hyunsung Park vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Sydney, Australia plays host to the UFC prime time event this weekend, as South Africa’s undisputed middleweight champion Dricus ‘Stillknocks’ Du Plessis puts his title on the line against the man he defeated to win it, former title holder Sean Strickland.

It’s a rematch that simply had to happen after their first fight at UFC 297 ended in a split decision, and with both men possessing gritty, stand-and-bang fighting styles. Their clash at the Qudos Bank Arena looks set to be another super-close, back-and-forth battle. 

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But who will leave Australia with the title belt in their carry-on luggage? Let’s break it down here.

Tale of the tape: Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland

Dricus Du Plessis: Can ‘Stillknocks’ leave no doubt in rematch?

Whenever there’s a close outcome in the first fight, there’s still plenty to prove in the rematch, and that’s very much the case here with Du Plessis. He was the challenger last time out, and he did just enough to get the nod from two of the three cageside judges on the night. 

Subsequent rewatches of that fight have done little to support anything other than the need for a rematch, and now, despite being the champion, it feels like the onus is still on Du Plessis.

He went toe-to-toe with Strickland last time out, and the cut sustained by the American late on in that fight may have been the deciding factor. Du Plessis claimed it came from a punch, while Strickland suggested it was from a headbutt. 

Either way, Du Plessis knows that he’s going to have to hit the gas earlier in the fight to put Strickland on the back foot, and then he has to sustain that pace through the full five rounds if needed, to claim a wider decision win. 

He probably has the heavier punch power, but Alex Pereira aside, nobody’s been able to knock him out at 185 pounds. 

That means that he needs to impart damage on Strickland again while keeping a higher pace than in the first fight. That’s some ask, but it’s within his compass. The big question is whether he can do so while eating a steady diet of strikes coming the other way.

Sean Strickland: Can an adjusted game plan make the difference in the rematch?

Sean Strickland's fights, by and large, tend to look pretty similar. He works behind the jab well, protects his head exceptionally well for an MMA fighter, and can push the sort of pace that breaks fighters. 

His punch power tends not to be of the one-shot-KO variety, but the cumulative effect of continually shipping shots from him, coupled with that aforementioned pace, has seen him rise up the middleweight ranks to be one of the toughest tests for anyone at 185 pounds.

Heading into the rematch, it’s almost too close to call, but one X-factor that Strickland has in his favour is his team. 

He trains out of the Xtreme Couture gym in Las Vegas, which is one of the most respected in the sport and works under head coach Eric Nicksick, who is indisputably one of the very best MMA coaches on the planet. 

Their gym has a steady stream of the best fighters in the world walking through its doors. And as such Strickland, who has a great reputation with his fellow fighters, despite his spiky, outspoken persona on the microphone, has plenty of goodwill from inside the sport. 

Case in point, he’s been working with fellow middleweight contender Caio Borralho during fight week in Australia, and will even have his former nemesis and reigning UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira in his corner.

Will that make the difference against Du Plessis in the final reckoning? That may all depend on how well he listens to his corner. He didn’t when he fought Pereira, and he got knocked out. If he does here, he could make this almost too close to call again.

Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland: The key factors

In boxing, rematches tend to go the same way the second time around, but that’s not necessarily the case in MMA, with so many different ways to win (and lose) a fight. 

But, in a fight where the fighting styles of the two men involved are very unlikely to change too much, the result is going to hinge on small adjustments to their respective approaches.

For Du Plessis, it’s going to be about pushing the pace even harder this time around and trying to hurt Strickland early. Strickland is very hard to take out of his rhythm once he’s in it, so Du Plessis will need to do everything he can in the first three rounds to keep Strickland guessing. 

The best way he can do that is letting Strickland get comfortable thinking it’s a purely stand-up fight, then smartly try to mix more wrestling into his output.

If he can land a solid takedown in a couple of the rounds, and keep Strickland there for a fair amount of time, that could be a crucial factor in assuring Du Plessis gets enough rounds banked if it goes to a decision. 

On the feet, he needs to load up on his shots, especially to the body. Strickland keeps a high guard, and shots to the body could be fruitful as Du Plessis looks to sap the former champion’s gas tank.

If he invests in the body early and mixes in a little more wrestling at appropriate times, that could see him home.

For Strickland, meanwhile, it’s all about output and work rate. His gas tank is absurdly good for a middleweight, and after spending five rounds with Du Plessis in a breathless first fight, he’ll know what’s needed to outwork and outpace the South African in the rematch. 

That output will need to be there again. But he will also be very aware of the fact that damage is a major scoring factor, so stepping in and using his elbows up close could be a smart option for him as he looks to bust up the champion at close quarters.

The former champion has tended to stay in one gear in some of his past fights, and he’ll need to vary his pace from time to time, especially in the final 60-90 seconds of rounds.

Just to help underline his performance in each round and give the judges a bit more to think about as they assess their scores. 

But, in a fight where neither man looks likely to break easily, this one could end up being every bit as close as the first.

FIRST’s top tip for Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland

It’s almost too close to call, but I think that Du Plessis may have more room to improve from the first fight, and I think that his heavier strikes, coupled with a more varied MMA game, could prove the difference-maker in another super-close fight.

PICK: DRICUS DU PLESSIS TO WIN BY DECISION – 13/8 (Betway)

Extra tips

The night’s co-main event also features championship action, as China’s reigning women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili puts her title on the line against American Tatiana Suarez. 

The bookies can barely separate the two, but Suarez’s wrestling and submission skills could give her the edge if she can get the fight to the mat. With that in mind, the 5/2 (Betway) on a Suarez win by submission looks a solid option.

Odds correct at the time of writing.