UFC London: Edwards vs Brady betting tips: Will the former champion bounce back on home soil?

Former UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards returns to action in the main event of UFC London, and he does so with a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove.

This is due to Edwards’ last appearance in Manchester, last year, where he was dethroned by Belal Muhammad at UFC 304. It was a strangely low-key performance by Edwards and one that ultimately cost him his title. 

Now Edwards is back and, after originally being set to face Australian contender Jack Della Maddalena, is now set to face American grappler Sean Brady after a shake-up at the top of the division saw Della Maddalena drafted into a title fight with Muhammad at UFC 315.

Edwards was already locked in for London, and the UFC have decided that Edwards needed to stay in his main event spot when on home soil. He now faces Brady in the knowledge that the winner will move on to challenge for the title later this year.

Tale of the tape: Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady

Leon Edwards: Can ‘Rocky’ put things right after title loss?

For Leon Edwards, Saturday night’s main event bout is a battle to prove that his last appearance was a rare bad day at the office. Against Belal Muhammad, Edwards looked sluggish, off the pace, and didn’t seem to have the same snap and sharpness to his work that we’ve become used to seeing. 

Now, as he gets set to face Brady, Edwards is looking to bounce back to put himself right back into the championship conversation once again. 

His title loss to Muhammad aside, Edwards was one of the most in-form fighters in the UFC, and his performances just seemed to be getting better with each fight. But against Muhammad, things looked off as he was outworked by Muhammad in Manchester.

Despite being on Edwards’ home soil, in the UK, that fight took place on US primetime which meant that his bout played out at around 5am. 

Edwards said that played a part in his sluggish performance, and he wants a return bout with the new champion to show that the real ‘Rocky’ is better than ‘Remember The Name’.

To do that, he’ll have to defeat Brady, who will pose a very different threat to Edwards’ originally scheduled opponent, Della Maddalena. The change means Edwards has gone from prepping to face a southpaw boxer to an orthodox wrestler/grappler. 

But, as Edwards has stressed in the lead-up to fight night, he’s been training to face wrestle-first fighters for the last few years, so making the switch shouldn’t be a huge problem.

The big question is can Edwards return to the stellar form that took him to the title, or will he suffer back-to-back losses for the first time in his career and fall down the crowded welterweight pecking order?

Sean Brady: Can Philly grappler bulldoze his way into title contention?

Pride of Philadelphia Sean Brady has been steadily working his way up the welterweight ladder, and now stands one win away from a possible shot at the undisputed title.

Brady has accepted the short-notice assignment against Edwards, which in itself is a big statement of not only his intention. But also his confidence that he can run through the former champion despite not having a full camp to prepare for him.

Brady’s confidence shouldn’t be mistaken for arrogance, however. The hard-nosed American contender has earned everything he’s been given in the UFC to date. 

His career record stands at 17-1, and he heads into his bout with Edwards riding a two-fight win streak, with a third-round finish of former middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum and a decision win over former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns.

The American’s only career defeat came to the new welterweight champion Muhammad, who at the time was working his way up to a title shot. 

Brady lost by standing TKO on that night and is keen to not only defeat Edwards and earn his title fight, but also to then move on and avenge his only loss by dethroning the champion.

To get there, he’ll have to face one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division, who has the striking to cause anyone problems, and underrated defensive skills on the mat. 

Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady: The key factors

On paper, Edwards vs Brady looks like a classic striker versus grappler matchup, but there’s much more at play than a simple battle of contrasts. 

Ultimately, it could boil down to several different factors, with both men heading into the bout with key advantages they’ll look to leverage on fight night.

Edwards has the edge in the stand-up, with his striking among the best in the division. His ability to counter-strike and exploit holes has helped him pick apart the likes of Colby Covington. 

His skillset gives him the technique to hit eye-popping techniques like the head kick that spectacularly knocked out Kamaru Usman to capture the championship.

Brady, meanwhile, has a superior grappling base. If he can get his opponent to the mat, he has the strength and technique to keep them there. And, if his opponent makes a mistake, he has the skills to take advantage and put them away with a submission.

While both men possess key advantages in their respective skill sets, victory will likely go to the fighter whose defensive skills can nullify their opponent’s best weapons.

For Edwards, that means stuffing the takedown and keeping the fight on the feet, while for Brady, he can stay away from Edwards’ striking. 

Can Edwards wrestle with Brady? Can Brady strike with Edwards? Based on what we’ve seen so far, Edwards’ wrestling looks a touch better than Brady’s striking. That, combined with the fact that every fight – and every round – starts with the fighters standing, that means it’s advantage Edwards.

Also in Edwards’ favour is the five-round distance. Brady went all 25 minutes in his last fight as he defeated Burns on the scorecards. Edwards has thrived in the five-round format and, crucially, has a huge experience advantage in five-round fights.

Edwards’ last seven fights have been over the longer duration, with four of them going the distance and another going deep into the final round. 

Conditioning won’t be a problem for 'Rocky', and his ability to face a wrestler/grappler over that 25-minute distance will be nothing new.

FIRST’s top tip for Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady

Looking at the head-to-head between the pair, Edwards appears to have more key advantages than Brady, with the Englishman’s main event experience, seasoned gas tank over five rounds, and a more well-rounded skillset giving him the key edge. 

But, despite those advantages, Edwards is a 6/5 underdog with several bookies for this fight. 

That means there’s some value to be had for Edwards backers, and the 21/4 available on 'Rocky' getting the victory via KO/TKO looks like an outstanding bet for a fighter with a significant striking advantage.

PICK: LEON EDWARDS TO WIN BY KO/TKO - 21/4 (BetMGM)

Extra tips

Carlos Ulberg is all the rage in the UFC’s light heavyweight division, and his slick striking style has seen him fly up the UFC’s 205-pound rankings. 

But against Jan Blachowicz, he’ll face one of the most durable, dogged competitors in the division. 

Former champion Alex Pereira couldn’t knock him out. Neither could new champion Magomed Ankalaev. And while Ulberg will look to test Blachowicz’s chin, Blachowicz will look to test Ulberg’s wrestling. 

It’s a much closer fight than many who are backing Ulberg may be thinking, and the 2/1 available on Blachowicz is worth a cheeky side bet. Once the markets open up and you can take him by decision, you’ll get even more bang for your buck (or pound!).

Odds correct at the time of writing.