UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs Erceg betting tips: Flyweight contenders vie for title shot

The UFC returns to Mexico with a fight card stacked with Latino fighting talent, and none have been as successful as former two-time UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno. 'The Assassin Baby' remains one of the most exciting, entertaining fighters in the UFC and, at the age of 31, he’s chasing his third UFC title run.

Standing in his way is Australia’s Steve Erceg. The unassuming flyweight contender has let his performances make all the noise as he climbed the 125-pound ranks.

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Now, after losing out on his first title opportunity last year, 'Astro Boy' is looking to claim a huge scalp to earn himself a second shot at flyweight glory.

The pair will face off in the main event in front of a raucous crowd at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, as the two top-10 contenders do battle with championship gold on their minds.

Tale of the tape: Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

Brandon Moreno: Does Mexico’s evergreen warrior have another title run in him?

Brandon Moreno may only be 31 years of age, but he’s already packed a tonne of experience into his mixed martial arts career.

The Mexican will live forever in the UFC’s history books as the first Mexican to win a UFC world title. The Tijuana-born fighter has proudly represented his nation on the world stage as he captured the UFC’s 125-pound belt twice, and has entertained the fans the world over with some of the most thrilling fights we’ve seen inside the Octagon.

Moreno’s career will be defined by his quadrilogy with Brazilian former champion Deiveson Figueiredo, as he and 'The God of War' did battle in four epic title fights.

Moreno claimed two of them, one by submission and the other by TKO, as he edged their rivalry, with Figueiredo claiming one win, while their first meeting ended in a draw.

Those fights showcased Moreno’s skill, tenacity and unbreakable will to win as he went into the trenches with a fighter who held similar qualities to his own and produced some of the most exciting title fights we’ve seen in the UFC.

But, at UFC 290 in July 2023, Moreno lost his title to another Brazilian, Alexandre Pantoja, via split decision. 

Now he’s battling to get back to a title rematch with 'The Animal'. Another split-decision loss, this time to Brandon Royval, was a big setback. But he rebounded last time out with a victory over Amir Albazi to show that his skills are still very much there. 

Victory over Erceg on Saturday night in Mexico City could be enough to see him back in line for a shot at the belt by the year’s end.

Steve Erceg: ‘Astro Boy’ wants to earn his way back to the top 

Quiet and unassuming away from the cage, Steve Erceg was thrust into the MMA spotlight after he knocked out longtime ranked flyweight contender Matt Schnell with a huge left hook in his third UFC appearance.

That victory, which came after a pair of unanimous decision victories in his first two UFC fights, saw Erceg enter the UFC’s flyweight top 15, and the Aussie would likely have been assessing his possible route to the top of the division.

But, in a move that surprised many, possibly including Erceg himself, 'Astro Boy' was handed a shot at newly-crowned flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and the 125-pound title at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro.

It was a fight many thought came too soon for Erceg, but his performance in defeat proved many of his doubters wrong as he took two rounds off the champion on two of the three judges’ scorecards after five hard rounds of back-and-forth MMA. 

In the end, it left Erceg, and many observers, wondering what might have happened if the Aussie had been able to push the pace for the full five rounds.

Despite the defeat, it proved that Erceg had the skills, and the mindset, to compete at the very top of the division, but his next fight, against fellow contender Kai Kara-France, proved a disaster as he was stopped with strikes late in the first round by the New Zealander.

It pumped the brakes somewhat on Erceg’s upward momentum, but now he has the chance to pick up the pace again as he faces former champion Moreno in a main event bout. If he’s successful, we could see him enter the flyweight championship conversation again.

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg: The key factors

Flyweight fights are often some of the most well-rounded bouts you’ll see in the Octagon, and that means the key factors lie across the full gamut of skills in MMA. 

The most crucial areas are likely to be the striking and the scrambles. Both are well-rounded competitors, but in the boxing department, Moreno has looked among the very best in the UFC, with his ability to stick and move, while mixing up his attack, making him one of the most dynamic boxers in the UFC. 

Moreno’s ability to throw combinations with speed and power could keep Erceg on the back foot, and he’ll look to settle into boxing range early to ensure he banks the early rounds.

Against Moreno, Erceg will be facing a volume striker who has outstanding boxing skills. His ability to gauge Moreno’s timing and find openings for shots of his own will be key.

As we’ve seen in some of his fights, Moreno can get clipped, and that’s where Erceg will look to capitalise. 

Matt Schnell also had sharp boxing skills, but Erceg used his own boxing, coupled with outstanding timing and anticipation, to find a perfect counter hook to knock out Schnell and propel himself into title contention.

The other key area will be in the scrambles. Both men have good takedown and submission abilities, but the crucial aspect will be in who wins the transitions and the scrambles. 

Moreno has proven ability to do exactly that, while Erceg has looked solid on the mat in his UFC appearances, he perhaps hasn’t had the chance to showcase his skills as much against top opposition.

Erceg’s title tilt against Alexandre Pantoja ultimately ended as a result of him being taken down in the final round. You can bet he’ll have been working tirelessly on that aspect of his game as he looks to fully establish himself among the division’s elite.

FIRST’s top tip for Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

Erceg is a talented contender, but against Moreno he faces a fighter who probably edges him in all of the main categories – speed, boxing, wrestling, cardio, five-round experience. 

Throw in the fact that he’s fighting on home soil, in front of a passionate Mexican crowd, and it’s hard to go against 'The Assassin Baby' here. 

Take Moreno to win, and for better value, look at the odds on him doing it in the championship rounds (rounds four and five).

PICK: BRANDON MORENO TO WIN @ 4/9 (BetMGM)

Extra tips

The lightweight main card bout between Manuel Torres and Drew Dober has Fight of the Night written all over it. The two dynamic finishers will go head to head in a fight that the bookies have as a virtual coin flip. 

Dober has the advantage in striking power, while Torres has arguably the more well-rounded game. Check the odds for the fight not to go the distance, for a nice side bet that doesn’t need you to pick a winner.

Odds correct at the time of writing.