UFC Des Moines: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo betting tips: Bantamweight contenders vie for title shot in Iowa

The UFC bantamweight division takes centre stage in Des Moines, Iowa on Saturday night as the division’s fourth and fifth-ranked contenders go head-to-head in a pivotal bout at 135 pounds.

Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo both have designs on a shot at the undisputed UFC bantamweight title currently held by Georgia’s Merab Dvalishvili, but to put themselves in position to challenge for championship gold they need to pick up a big win in Iowa.

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The pair headline a packed card of fights, with a fascinating middleweight clash between the Netherlands’ Reinier De Ridder and former college wrestling standout Bo Nickal providing chief support in the night’s co-main event.

Tale of the tape: Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo

H2: Cory Sandhagen: Can ‘The Sandman’ move one step closer to bantamweight gold?

As things currently stand, Cory Sandhagen is the “nearly man” of the UFC’s bantamweight division. It’s an unwanted label, for sure, but one that aptly describes his situation and recent career as he’s toiled away in his quest for a UFC title shot. But, every time he finds himself just one win away from a tilt at gold, disaster strikes.

This stretches back to the summer of 2020, when Sandhagen had earned a title eliminator fight with Aljamain Sterling. But “The Sandman” was submitted 88 seconds into the bout in Las Vegas.

Back-to-back Performance of the Night wins followed, only for him to lose a split-decision to former champion TJ Dillashaw. But good fortune followed, as Sandhagen was added to UFC 267, where he took on Petr Yan for the interim UFC bantamweight title. Sandhagen fought superbly in a bout that went all the way to the scorecards, but all he took away from Abu Dhabi that night was a Fight of the Night bonus after he lost a unanimous decision.

Back to the drawing board Sandhagen went, and three more wins – over Song Yadong, Marlon Vera and Rob Font – put him in another title eliminator. But, once again, Sandhagen had more heartbreak in Abu Dhabi as he lost another decision, this time to Umar Nurmagomedov.

Now Sandhagen needs to bounce back again against a bonafide championship performer, who plans on making a championship run in his new weight class.

H2: Deiveson Figueiredo: Will former flyweight king earn a chance at two-division glory? 

Deiveson Figueiredo was a force of nature at flyweight, and now he plans on reaching his full potential in what should be his natural weight class.

Despite being a two-time undisputed flyweight champion, Figueiredo was always tight at the weight, and many - including this writer - felt that he was a natural bantamweight, boiling himself down to compete at 125 pounds.

Now he’s taken the plunge and made the move up to bantamweight, he has the chance to show his full potential without the need for such a gruelling weight cut.

Since moving to bantamweight, Figueiredo has looked every inch a title contender. He defeated longtime contender Rob Font on his UFC bantamweight debut, then submitted former flyweight champion Cody Garbrandt in a 135-pound bout at UFC 300. He then added a third win with a unanimous decision victory over another perennial contender in Marlon Vera.

Most recently, Figueiredo lost out to former world champion Petr Yan in Macau in a hugely entertaining five-round matchup. Yan proved just a bit too good on the night, but it showed what Figueiredo needs to do to level up to championship calibre, and he’ll get the chance to showcase that against Sandhagen on Saturday night.

H2: Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo: The key factors

The matchup offers a fascinating clash, with a perennial bantamweight contender taking on a former flyweight world champion who has the talent to join the division’s best at 135 pounds. The big question is: just how good is Figueiredo at 135 pounds?

Against Font, Garbrandt and Vera, he looked like the Figueiredo we’ve been used to seeing at flyweight, only fresher, bigger and more powerful. The move up in weight seems to have been an easy one for him, and he’s carried his power and speed up with him, with the latter the most dangerous asset he brings to the table.

His loss to Yan pumped the brakes on the Figueiredo hype a tad, but it was more down to a phenomenal performance on the night by Yan, rather than Figueiredo being sub-par, so the Brazilian shouldn’t be ruled out on the strength of that fight. However, it did show that if an elite bantamweight turns up on their A-game, Figueiredo will need to find another gear to get the job done.

For Sandhagen, the battle is almost more mental than physical. He has the talent to finish literally anybody in the world at 135 pounds when he’s on top form, but he has found himself on the losing end of decisions in three of his last six UFC fights.

That suggests issues of output and pacing could be at play, and against a former flyweight champion who will be naturally faster than his opponent Sandhagen will need to hit the ground running from the opening bell.

Physically, Sandhagen has a significant height advantage and a slight edge in reach. He’s also the younger man, with fewer fights on his record. On the flipside, Figueiredo has championship experience and is the more explosive fighter.

Also, the five-round course should be no problem for either man, with Figueiredo a seasoned championship fighter, and Sandhagen a frequent main-event competitor. 

The fight will ultimately boil down to who can dictate the pace and location of the fight. If it stays standing, Sandhagen’s range and smarts should be enough to secure the victory. But if Figueiredo can get the fight to the mat, he has the skills to cause Sandhagen - himself a talented grappler - one or two problems.

H3: FIRST’s top tip for Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo

However this fight pans out, betting on the over – or on the fight to go the distance – looks like the smart move here. 

Both men are seasoned five-round operators, and they don’t get finished often. Sandhagen has been stopped just once (by submission), while Figueiredo has been finished only twice (once by doctor stoppage, once by submission). 

With that in mind, taking the 12/25 on the fight to be won by decision (by either man) in BetMGM’s Alternate Winning Method market looks a solid bet. 

PICK: FIGHT TO BE WON BY DECISION @ 12/25 (BETMGM) - ALTERNATE WINNING METHOD

H3: Extra tips

If I was looking to pick a winner in the main event, I’d have to side with Sandhagen’s size and divisional experience. But “The Sandman” is unbackable at 1/5 odds, and while Figueiredo is outstanding value – especially to win by decision at 15/2 – it wouldn’t warrant anything other than a cheeky side bet. 

A better bet can be found a little further down the fight card, as Welsh warrior Mason Jones and Jeremy Stephens both return to the UFC looking in search of a big win in what should be a wild slugfest.

Stephens is an all-out brawler who knows nothing other than to bite down on his mouthpiece and throw heavy leather. And that will suit Jones perfectly. His own penchant for getting involved in wild brawls makes this matchup a near certainty for one or both men to receive a post-fight bonus. But the bookies only see one winner – Jones.

The 1/6 odds on Jones are stingy, at best, but the 2/1 available on Jones to finish “Lil’ Heathen” by KO, TKO or DQ looks very tempting indeed. He’s stopped three of his last four opponents, and will fancy his chances of finishing Stephens, who hits like a truck, but won’t be hard for Jones to find. 

PICK: MASON JONES TO WIN BY KO, TKO or DQ @ 2/1 (BETMGM)