UFC 315: Muhammad vs Della Maddalena: New champion puts his belt on the line in Montreal

The undisputed UFC welterweight championship of the world is on the line in the main event as the UFC lands in Montreal, Quebec, Canada this weekend for UFC 315. 

Chicago’s Belal “Remember The Name” Muhammad captured the 170-pound title last year at UFC 304. Now, he’s set to put his title on the line for the first time as he takes on Australian contender Jack Della Maddalena, who hasn’t lost a fight since 2016.

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It’s a fight that looks set to see the welterweight division catch fire, with Della Maddalena the first in a string of contenders vying to challenge for the 170-pound title. It means Muhammad has a tough reign ahead – if he can hang on to his belt this weekend. Can he do it, or will the Aussie rip it from his grasp at the very first opportunity?

Tale of the tape: Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad: Winning the belt is tough, but defending it is even tougher

To say that Belal Muhammad’s success has been long-awaited and hard-earned would be a huge understatement. “Remember The Name” hasn’t lost a fight since January 2019, and is currently riding an 11-fight unbeaten streak (10 wins, 1 no contest). His list of victims speaks to how solid a competitor he’s been over the years, with victories over the likes of Demian Maia, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, Gilbert Burns and, in his championship-winning moment, Leon Edwards.

Despite his rise up the welterweight rankings, Muhammad has struggled to get respect from the fanbase, with his grinding, unspectacular fighting style failing to win over a large portion of the casual UFC fans. But his work rate, toughness and sheer grit have helped take him to levels that few thought he could achieve.

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Nowhere was that more clearly demonstrated than when he defeated Leon Edwards at UFC 304 to win the title. Muhammad fought to a tight gameplan, leaned heavily on his cardio and overwhelmed a sub-par Edwards to capture the title.

Despite his win, much has been said about whether Muhammad’s victory was due to his excellence or Edwards’ “bad day at the office,” and few are tipping Muhammad to hang on to his belt for long. The bookies are siding with him in this matchup, however.

Jack Della Maddalena: Aussie finisher has his sights set on gold

In 2016, a young Jack Della Maddalena lost his first two fights as a pro. But that’s as bad as it’s been for the Australian, who has won 17 fights in a row en route to his first UFC world title opportunity. Yet, despite his remarkable run of form, some believe his opportunity may have come too soon.

After capturing the welterweight title for top Australian fight promotion Eternal MMA and defending it four successive times, Della Maddalena earned his spot in the UFC with a win over Ange Loosa on Dana White’s Contender Series to get his shot on the world stage. Since then, “JDM” has been at full throttle as he has flown up the welterweight rankings.

Della Maddalena kicked off his UFC career with four first-round finishes - three TKOs, followed by a submission - as he made a big impact on the UFC’s 170-pound division. That form eventually saw him bumped up in competition, and a pair of split-decision wins over Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland showed that he can outbattle opponents, as well as finish them. 

But it was his third-round knockout of Gilbert Burns, after a back-and-forth war at UFC 299, that showed that Della Maddalena was capable of mixing it with the division’s top men. And, after Shavkat Rakhmonov was forced out of a planned title fight with Muhammad due to injury, and with Edwards booked to face Della Maddalena in the main event of UFC London, the UFC opted to keep the London show intact with a Brit at the top of the card and promoted Della Maddalena, not Edwards, into the title fight vacancy.

It’s a chance that perhaps has come a fight or two earlier than most expected, but Della Maddalena has two major weapons heading into his title challenge this weekend - momentum and confidence.

Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena: The key factors

The matchup between Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena offers a stark contrast in fighting styles. The champion is a tough, seasoned grinder, who works in the trenches and uses his wrestling and gas tank to gradually break down his opponents, while the challenger is a finisher of fights who has shown a willingness to go toe-to-toe and back his skills in a firefight.

The big question here is this: which fighting style will prevail?

Muhammad has faced a host of different fighting styles, and has dealt with them all pretty well. Looking back through his past opponents, he’s faced a number of strikers, including one of the the best the UFC welterweight division has ever seen in Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, as well as the likes of Vicente Luque and Leon Edwards. Gilbert Burns loves to stand and bang, too. Muhammad handled them all.

Della Maddalena’s style of striking will be a little different. He has dangerous boxing, and is much more aggressive in his use of that skillset. He has submissions in his locker, too, but his preference is always to get the job done with his fists. It’s an approach that has served him well over the course of his career, but against Muhammad, his cardio and defensive skills are going to be put to the test.

Muhammad’s gas tank is arguably his best weapon, and that, plus his relentless work at close quarters is likely to provide a test for Della Maddalena that he hasn’t seen so far in his UFC career. And, with the Aussie’s takedown defence percentage at a solid, but not elite 70%, that may give Muhammad the confidence to know that his persistent pursuit of the takedown will eventually bring success on fight night.

FIRST’s top tip for Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena

The fight pits a seasoned grinder who wins the majority of his fights by decision against a bonafide finisher, and while the sexy pick would be to go for Della Maddalena to stop Muhammad, the smart pick is to side with the champion to retain his title. 

He’s battle-hardened, he has a bottomless gas tank, and he thrives in five-round fights. Della Maddalena, meanwhile, has never been past 15 minutes in a fight. It might not be pretty to watch, but Muhammad is likely to make this a scrappy, clinch and grapple-heavy fight and grind out another decision victory

PICK: BELAL MUHAMMAD TO WIN BY DECISION @ 19/20 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

The co-main event will see women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko put her 125-pound title on the line against surging French contender Manon Fiorot, with bookmakers offering incredible value on the women’s pound-for-pound number one fighter to get the victory.

Fiorot hasn’t lost since arriving in the UFC in 2021, and has won each of her last five UFC fights by decision. That suggests that Shevchenko will likely have five rounds to finish Fiorot before the worst-case scenario of a decision defeat. Shevchenko will likely lean on her wrestling and grappling to neutralise Fiorot’s size and range. And, with the fight on the floor, the skill discrepancy between the champion and challenger should become more apparent. 

It could come via ground-and-pound TKO, or via submission (most likely an armbar or arm-triangle choke), but Shevchenko has the skills to get the finish on the mat. Betting on Shevchenko to get the finish is a superb value bet, with BetMGM offering very tasty odds of 21/4 on the champion to get the job done inside the distance.

PICK: VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO TO WIN BY FINISH @ 21/4 (BETMGM)