UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber – Who moves closer to a title shot at 125 pounds?

The UFC APEX in Las Vegas will play host to a pivotal matchup in the UFC’s women’s flyweight division, as top-five contenders Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber face off in a bid to push themselves one step closer to a shot at the 125-pound title. The event also features a clash of fighting styles at lightweight, as Polish grappling ace Mateusz Gamrot takes on Slovakian striker Ludovit Klein. 

Ahead of fight night, we run the rule over the main event to deliver our big-fight prediction, and weigh in with a side bet on Saturday night’s co-headliner.

Tale of the tape: Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber

Erin Blanchfield: Can 'Cold Blooded' performance earn her a title shot?

Erin Blanchfield has looked every inch a future champion since her arrival in the UFC in 2021. The former Invicta FC standout joined the UFC and immediately made an impact as she built a six-fight win streak that included notable victories over Molly McCann, former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade and former flyweight title challenger Taila Santos.

In a division packed with strikers, Blanchfield’s mat skills and submission abilities marked her out as a different kind of flyweight contender, but when she ran into in-form French contender Manon Fiorot last year, she was unable to take her down and was outstruck on the feet en route to a shutout defeat after five one-sided rounds.

That defeat sent Blanchfield back to the drawing board, and in the most important fight of her UFC career, she bounced back with a unanimous decision victory as she edged the former strawweight champion after five competitive rounds in Edmonton, Canada.

Now, with Blanchfield back in the win column, and with a former world champion on her resumé, “Cold Blooded” is ready to prove herself against another of the division’s top contenders. 

Maycee Barber: Can 'The Future’s' form carry her to top contender status?

Maycee Barber has been tipped for the top ever since she burst into the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series as a teenager back in the summer of 2018. Since then, we’ve seen her grow up in front of our eyes as she’s claimed a string of impressive victories over a host of notable names. And, while there have been a couple of obstacles along the way, “The Future” has developed into a dangerous, well-drilled flyweight contender.

Early wins over the likes of JJ Aldrich and Gillian Robertson added to the hype around Barber, but that came crashing down with back-to-back losses to Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso. The latter defeat came in February 2021, and Barber hasn’t lost since.

She heads into Saturday night’s main event riding a six-fight win streak, with all bar one of them coming via the judges’ scorecards. It shows that, while the prolific finishing rate of her early UFC career may have subsided, her ability to game-manage her performances, coupled with her improved conditioning, has helped her to a succession of solid victories.

Now she’ll look to claim her seventh straight win by outworking one of the grittiest, trickiest contenders in the division. If she can get past Blanchfield, a title fight could potentially be as little as one win away.

Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber: The key factors

Both athletes are outstanding young talents whose best years are ahead of them, both have made massive improvements over the last couple of years, and both have rebounded from career setbacks en route to this weekend’s pivotal clash. Both also have bulletproof mindsets and are determined to make it to the very top of the division.

However, that’s where the similarities end. Blanchfield and Barber couldn’t be much more different as fighters. While Blanchfield prefers to take the action to the ground and dominate on the mat, Barber is a pure striker, who has added defensive wrestling to her game to help her maximise her striking output on the feet.

As is so often the case in fights between grapplers and strikers, the key to victory lies in the battle for territory. Whoever can determine where the fight takes place will have a huge edge in the matchup.

If Blanchfield can take Barber off her feet and get her down to the canvas, she’ll have a huge advantage on the ground. But if Barber can reproduce the winning formula Fiorot used to defeat Blanchfield, the momentum will side firmly with “The Future”.

FIRST’s top tip for Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber

Delving into the stats of both fighters, a clear difference between the pair can be found. Barber’s takedown defence percentage is just 53 percent, which isn’t a particularly impressive number. That suggests that, if Blanchfield can be relentless enough in closing the distance and shooting for takedowns, the chances are she’ll land one eventually. And once the fight is on the mat, she can put her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to good use.

Barber has the striking skills to outstrike Blanchfield on the feet, but if she can’t prevent herself from being taken down, her chances of victory will be even slimmer than the 37/20 odds on offer from BetMGM.

Given both fighters’ tendency to go the distance in fights, backing the 4/9 available on the bout to go the distance is tempting. But with Blanchfield looking the more likely winner on paper, taking her to win the fight on the scorecards at EVENS offers solid value. 

PICK: ERIN BLANCHFIELD TO WIN BY DECISION @ EVENS (BETMGM)

Extra tips

The co-main event offers a similar clash in styles, as grappler and ranked lightweight contender Mateusz Gamrot takes on Slovakian striker Ludovit Klein.

Gamrot has operated in much higher company during his UFC career, and always gives his opponents a hard time, even in defeat. A bet on “Gamer” to grind out a victory on the scorecards after three rounds may offer the most likely outcome, but if you fancy more of a value punt, the 21/4 available on Gamrot to win by finish offers a good value side bet.

PICK: MATEUSZ GAMROT TO WIN BY DECISION @ 49/50 (BETMGM)