UFC Atlanta: Usman vs Buckley – Former champ vs surging ace in huge welterweight clash

After the drama of UFC 316, we head to Atlanta, Georgia, with a huge fight in the welterweight division. 

The former undisputed welterweight champion Kamaru Usman takes on knockout artist and rising contender Joaquin Buckley in an explosive main event dust-up.

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The matchup pits two experienced operators head to head, with the fighters on two very different trajectories. Usman looking to rediscover his championship form against a fighter on the best run of his MMA career.

Tale of the tape: Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley

Kamaru Usman: Can the former champ bounce back into title contention?

Former undisputed champion Kamaru Usman was once considered one of the very best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. But he lost his title in stunning fashion to Leon Edwards in Salt Lake City at UFC 278 in 2022, and hasn’t really recovered since.

A rematch against Edwards the following year ended in a majority decision defeat. A short-notice bout with Khamzat Chimaev at middleweight at UFC 294 showed his toughness, but ultimately ended in another loss on the scorecards.

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It means the man who was one of the most dominant champions in the UFC now finds himself on a three-fight losing streak. He leaves him desperate to pick up a victory to right the ship and set himself up for a run back towards the title later this year or early in 2026.

But, at the age of 38, time isn’t on Usman’s side, and with a host of young, dangerous contenders starting to gather at the sharp end of the UFC welterweight division. 

The big question heading into this weekend is whether Usman still has what it takes to rule at 170 pounds, or whether the next generation of contenders has now eclipsed him as he enters the veteran stage of his career?

Joaquin Buckley: Can surging contender break into welterweight elite?

Joaquin Buckley has been marked out for stardom ever since his second UFC fight. Where he delivered one of the most spectacular knockouts in UFC history as he stunned Impa Kasanganay with a flying spinning back kick on “Fight Island” Abu Dhabi during the pandemic.

Ever since then, Buckley’s fights have been eagerly viewed as pundits and fans look to see if “New Mansa” can fulfil the potential he clearly had when he entered the UFC. His run began initially as a middleweight, but after back-to-back defeats, he made the move down to welterweight, and his career has exploded as a result.

Six wins in a row, four by knockout, have propelled him into the welterweight top 10. He heads into his main event bout with former champion Usman this weekend knowing that victory could catapult him into the division’s top five. Thus putting him as little as one win away from a potential shot at the 170-pound title.

Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley: The key factors

This is as intriguing a matchup as you could possibly book in the UFC’s welterweight division, with a number of different factors at play.

Perhaps the biggest factor, and the biggest challenge Usman has to face this weekend, is momentum. Incredibly, he hasn’t won a fight since his UFC 268 victory over Colby Covington back in November 2021. 

By contrast, Buckley has fought 10 times since Usman’s last win, and heads into this weekend riding a six-fight win streak. Coincidentally, his most recent victory also came against Covington, but while Usman got the job done on the scorecards, Buckley finished him in the third round.

Age is likely to be a key factor, too. Buckley is seven years Usman’s junior, and is just coming into his fighting prime, while Usman’s best days may now be behind him. 

However, with those years come additional experience, and while they have comparable careers in terms of fights contested, Usman has operated at a much higher level through his UFC career. This weekend’s fight is undoubtedly the biggest in Buckley’s career. 

The question will be whether Buckley rises to the challenge, or if Usman’s top-level experience will hold sway in a five-round main event.

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There are also significant technical and stylistic factors involved. Usman is happy to stand and trade, but against such an explosive knockout artist like Buckley, he’d be well served to lean heavily on his wrestling. 

Will he do so, or will he look to tough it out with Buckley on the feet? If he does the former, that will then put Buckley’s takedown defence to the test. 

His takedown defensive percentage stands at 73% through his UFC career, which is solid, but not brilliant. And with Usman landing an average of 2.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, there’s a better than average chance that Buckley is going to have to use his defensive wrestling. 

If Buckley can keep it standing, he has the speed and power to give Usman major problems on the feet. 

But if Usman can force the action against the fence, or better still, take things to the mat, he has the smarts to control the action and drain Buckley’s gas tank over the longer five-round duration.

FIRST’s top tip for Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley

Looking at the betting odds, the first thing that leaps off the page is just how big of an underdog Usman is in this fight. He’s 41/20 (BetMGM) to win the fight, and his odds to win the fight by decision – his most likely path to victory – are a very tempting 21/4 (BetMGM). 

Yes, he’s on a three-fight skid, but the first was a one-in-a-million KO after a fight he’d dominated, and the two that followed were very competitive decision defeats against championship-calibre fighters. 

With that considered, 21/4 on an Usman win on the scorecards is a massive opportunity (and might be worth a little side bet to cover you). 

But, while the value undoubtedly lies in backing Usman, the man who looks most likely to win this fight is Buckley. 

His form, confidence and power could overpower Usman. Providing he doesn’t run out of gas by going too aggressive, too early, this looks like the moment where Buckley can claim an attention-grabbing stoppage victory.

PICK: JOAQUIN BUCKLEY TO WIN BY TKO, KO OR DQ @ 8/5 (BetMGM)

Extra tips

On a fight card with a lot of lop-sided matchups odds-wise, hunting a solid value bet that isn’t a complete punt is a little trickier than usual. But the middleweight matchup between Edmen Shahbazyan and Andre Petroski might open up an opportunity.

Shahbazyan is an outstanding striker, who can light up almost anyone on the feet at 185 pounds. But if he gets taken to the mat, things change drastically. 

His last two losses both came against noted grapplers, as he was TKO’d on the ground by Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and submitted by Gerald Meerschaert. 

Petroski is among the best grapplers in the middleweight division, and if he can get Shahbazyan to the mat early enough in a round, he’ll have an outstanding chance to get the finish. 

He is 11/2 to win via submission as our pick of the bunch. But the 6/4 odds on him getting the victory are there to be had, if you fancied a small gamble.

PICK: ANDRE PETROSKI TO WIN VIA SUBMISSION @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes)

Odds correct at the time of writing.