UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira – Who leaves UFC International Fight Week as the new lightweight king?

A new world champion will be crowned during UFC International Fight Week as former undisputed featherweight king Ilia Topuria moves up to lightweight to challenge former 155-pound champion Charles Oliveira for the vacant undisputed UFC lightweight championship of the world at UFC 317.

Their matchup will reboot an already exciting lightweight division with a new champion following Islam Makhachev’s decision to move up to welterweight to chase title glory at 170 pounds.

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And with the title now lying vacant, the opportunity is there for former featherweight champ Topuria, who vacated his belt to move up to 155 pounds, and former lightweight champ Oliveira, who never lost his title inside the Octagon, to do battle for the title.

It’s a huge fight, and tops a card full of exciting matchups in Las Vegas this week.

Tale of the tape: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

Ilia Topuria: Can “El Matador” take over in his new weight class?

The fighting pride of both Spain and Georgia, Topuria has risen up the ranks at featherweight to become one of the best pound-for-pound athletes in the sport. His compact fighting style, marrying outstanding grappling skills with sharp boxing and fierce knockout power, has seen him make it all the way to the top of the featherweight division, demolishing two of the UFC’s all-time greats along the way.

He captured the title with a stunning knockout of Alexander Volkanovski, then became the first man to knock out Max Holloway when he ran through the Hawaiian in his first featherweight title defence. 

But, rather than looking to turn back all comers at 145 pounds, Topuria announced that he’d be moving up to lightweight, stating that fighting without having to go through a punishing weight cut would only take him to new heights.

That theory gets its first test at UFC 317, as the undefeated Topuria faces one of the most dangerous men on the planet at 155 pounds, Charles Oliveira, a former champion with a chip on his shoulder.

Charles Oliveira: Does “Do Bronxs” have one more title run in him?

Charles Oliveira’s path to the top was a long and winding one. After initially competing at featherweight, Oliveira went through a tough run of form before eventually making the decision to move up to lightweight in 2017. It proved to be the best decision of his career.

After one win and one loss at 155 pounds, Oliveira hit form, and reeled off nine wins in a row, and took his run into double figures with a come-from-behind TKO finish of Michael Chandler as he captured the vacant lightweight title at UFC 262. 

A third-round finish of Dustin Poirier followed as he retained his title in style, but after arriving on the scale half a pound over the 155-pound limit ahead of his bout with Justin Gaethje, a devastated Oliveira was stripped of his title, leaving Gaethje as the only man who could win the belt with victory at UFC 274. 

Oliveira stepped into the Octagon with a point to prove and, after submitting Gaethke in less than three and a half minutes, he declared, “The champ has a name! Charles ‘Do Bronxs’ Oliveira!”

Sadly for Oliveira, he never got back to the belt. A shot at the vacant title ended in defeat to Islam Makhachev at UFC 280, and he hasn’t been back to a title fight since. But now, after a second victory over Chandler at UFC 309, Oliveira is back, and ready to reunite himself with the title he never lost in the cage.

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira: The key factors

The matchup between Topuria and Oliveira pits one of the very best pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC against the most decorated finisher in UFC history.

Oliveira has a staggering 20 finishes in the Octagon, and is almost as dangerous on the feet as he is on the mat. The Brazilian has finished a plethora of top names, including Chandler, Gaethje, Poirier and Beneil Dariush. But against Topuria, he faces a man who is no respecter of reputation.

“El Matador” has finished both Volkanovski and Holloway, and submitted grappling specialist Bryce Mitchell. He has also had one fight at lightweight, where he took on former Cage Warriors champion Jai Herbert. It took him a round to get his sights set, but once he did, he looked phenomenal as he flattened Herbert with one of the most vicious KO’s you’ll see.

That power at lightweight could be Topuria’s golden ticket. But to use it, he’ll have to get inside Oliveira’s striking range. The Brazilian is the taller man, and will have a five-inch reach advantage over the former featherweight champion. Throw into the mix his kicking skills, and that range becomes even tougher to penetrate.

If Topuria can get close enough – and he thinks Oliveira’s style will make that easy for him – he has the power to put the Brazilian on his back in short order. But if he can’t, and Oliveira proves a trickier customer, there’s a chance “Do Bronxs” can find a home for his own power strikes.

While most expect the bout to play out predominantly on the feet, if the fight goes to the mat, the matchup arguably gets even more intriguing. Oliveira is a legit BJJ black belt, with 21 career submission wins to his name. Topuria has excellent grappling skills, but against a bigger, more experienced grappler, with so much proven finishing ability, that could be a tricky prospect, especially if Oliveira wins the positional battle.

In summary, it’s a matchup where both men possess the tools to win the fight inside the distance, via almost any method imaginable. And that’s why it’s such a must-see fight. Topuria has the momentum, and arguably the power advantage. But this is Oliveira’s weight class, and he’s been there, seen it, done it and has the belt to prove it. 

FIRST’s top tip for Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

As we’ve laid out above, Topuria carries the key advantages in age, speed, power and momentum, and is deservedly the betting favourite heading into Saturday night’s matchup. He also brings the bulletproof confidence of a fighter who has never tasted defeat. 

Oliveira, meanwhile, has experienced the full gamut of emotions and outcomes in his UFC career, and the knowledge that this is possibly his last shot at recapturing UFC championship gold could weigh heavily on him on fight night.

Given where both men are in their respective careers, and looking at their form over the last few fights, it’s impossible not to lean towards Topuria here, and the most likely path to victory is via knockout or TKO. BetMGM has that outcome as a 8/11 shot, which is as good as we’ve found for the former featherweight champion to get the job done by that method.

PICK: ILIA TOPURIA TO WIN BY TKO, KO OR DQ @ 8/11 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

Charles Oliveira has been stopped eight times in his career, with four of those coming via KO or TKO. And, on each of those occasions, the finish has come in the first or second round. The Brazilian’s aggressive, come-forward approach is likely to see the action catch fire early, and standing in front of Topuria could spell disaster for the Brazilian.

Both men have the ability to finish the fight, but in terms of sheer punch power, and the ability to shut someone’s lights out with a single shot, Topuria has the edge. And if things get tasty early, a quick finish could be on the cards. 

If you’re feeling brave, you can get 5/2 on a first-round win for Topuria, but the 27/25 odds on him getting the victory in Round 1 or 2 looks like a very nice side bet.

PICK: ILIA TOPURIA TO WIN IN ROUND 1 OR 2 @ 27/25 (BETMGM)

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