UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3 – Can ‘The Diamond’ bow out with BMF title victory in retirement fight?

The UFC’s famed Octagon heads to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana as one of MMA’s most beloved fighters returns home for his retirement fight.

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier has announced that his fight at UFC 318 will be his last as he bows out in his home state in one final fight – and he’s got the perfect partner for his last dance.

Check out the best UK bookmakers to claim free bets worth up to £850!

Max Holloway is the reigning BMF champion, and a fighter who, like Poirier, always brings excitement and entertainment to his fights. 

The Hawaiian superstar has fought Poirier twice before, and came out on the losing end – but his stunning BMF title-winning knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 showed that he is now a force to be reckoned with at 155 pounds. 

It’s the perfect matchup for what should be a great night as Poirier makes the walk for the final time, with the chance to bring the curtain down on his career with a championship belt around his waist.

Tale of the tape: Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

Max Holloway: Can “Blessed” become the best at 155 pounds?

Holloway’s legacy as a future UFC Hall of Famer is already assured. His run, and title reign, in the UFC’s featherweight division made him one of the greatest 145-pounders in MMA history. But now, in the veteran stage of his fighting career, he’s taken the decision to prolong his career by ditching the punishing weight cut and moving up to 155 pounds.

After dominating Justin Gaethje through four rounds of their title fight at UFC 300, Holloway captured the BMF (Baddest Motherf****r) title with a stunning last-second KO of “The Highlight” to notch one of the most spectacular victories ever seen inside the Octagon.

But a return to featherweight to challenge then-145-pound champ Ilia Topuria ended with Holloway suffering the first knockout loss of his fighting career.

Now Holloway is back at lightweight, and looking to face a fellow legend as he takes on Poirier in a fight that gives him the opportunity to avenge his two prior losses to the Louisiana native earlier in their careers. 

Poirier will retire at the end of the night, but Holloway plans to move on and eventually fight for the undisputed lightweight title, which is now held by the man who knocked him out – Topuria.

But to get that rematch, he’ll need to ruin Poirier’s night on Saturday. Holloway wins are usually well received by the fans. But on Saturday night, there’s no doubt that “Blessed” is playing the role of spoiler. And if he wants to fulfil his dream of becoming a two-weight world champion, victory at UFC 318 is a must.

Dustin Poirier: Can “The Diamond” enjoy the perfect send-off?

Fighters rarely get the chance to bow out of MMA on their own terms. Usually, they’re told to retire, or they go on for a fight or two too many. And even those who pick their moment don’t always get the chance to go out on a win.

For Poirier, the chance is there for him to enjoy the perfect MMA retirement, by fighting on home soil, defeating a fellow legend and leaving the cage with a belt over his shoulder. That’s the dream, but against someone as good as Holloway, that’s still an incredibly difficult task.

Poirier has fought a who’s who of the featherweight and lightweight divisions during his 40-fight career, and knows Holloway well, having fought him twice. But no two fights are the same, and rematches don’t always go the same way.

If he can claim the victory on Saturday night, it will see Poirier depart the main event stage in the perfect manner. But against a fighter as durable and difficult as Holloway, he’ll have to push himself to the limit one more time. 

If he’s successful, it’ll be one of the biggest feel-good moments in UFC history. But while the UFC has generously set up this event in his home state to give him the perfect stage to bid farewell, Holloway won’t be as accommodating on fight night. If Poirier is to get his dream send-off, he’s going to have to earn it.

Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier 3: The key factors

A host of factors will be in play on fight night when Holloway and Poirier face off for the third and final time at UFC 318, as the two fighters head into the Octagon with different emotions and different motivations for their trilogy clash.

Holloway will arrive in the arena with a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove. Firstly, he lost both of his previous fights with Poirier – the first via triangle armbar submission at UFC 143 on Holloway’s UFC debut, and the second via unanimous decision at UFC 236. For that reason alone he’ll be desperate to get one back on Poirier on Saturday. But Holloway’s motivations don’t end there.

The Hawaiian is looking to earn a shot at the lightweight title having stated that his days as a featherweight are now behind him. 

The former featherweight champion now has his sights set on the lightweight title, and sees victory over former interim champion Poirier as the perfect springboard to propel him into championship contention at 155 pounds.

And finally, Holloway heads into the fight having suffered the first KO loss of his career to Topuria last time out. His stats certainly back up his claim to being the best boxer in the UFC, but he was crushed by the Spanish-Georgian last time out. 

As a result, he’ll be determined to bounce back in emphatic fashion to prove that he’s still got it, and he’s ready to make his way to the lightweight title, and a potential rematch with Topuria.

The motivations for Poirier are very different. There’s no onward career path for him inside the cage, and he has no revenge or ill will on his mind as he faces a man who he not only respects, but one he knows he’s defeated twice before. 

For Poirier, the fight will be all about controlling his emotions. He has always been a fighter who wears his heart on his sleeve, from his early days where he was a bit of a hothead, to his veteran recent career, where he’s dealt with rivalries with maturity. 

Now, he’s going to have to keep his emotions in check for different reasons as he fights for the final time, knowing that he has his friends and family in attendance, and a huge amount of goodwill and backing from neutral fans around the world.

He’ll have to stick to his gameplan against Holloway, who has the ability to outstrike him and, based on his finish of Gaethje, the power to knock him out, too. But Poirier won’t want to lose in his home state, and knows he’ll need to treat this fight as if it’s his last – because it is.

FIRST’s top tip for Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier 3

More so than either of their first two meetings, this fight between Holloway and Poirier is as close to being a pick-em as you could find. The bookies are struggling to separate the pair, with BetMGM having Holloway as a narrow favourite, but by the time the Octagon door shuts, those odds could easily be reversed.

Holloway has the advantage in terms of his gas tank and striking output, but Poirier is the naturally stronger athlete, and has the broader arsenal of weapons. 

While Holloway almost exclusively looks to stand and strike, Poirier mixes in takedowns, clinch work, and has a dangerous submission game.

Read: What is a handicap bet and how does it work?

In any fight where the pair are closely matched, the smartest bet is usually to side with the fighter who has more ways to win the fight, and in this case, that man is Poirier. If Holloway hits top form and keeps it standing, he has the skill to win a decision. 

But Poirier will meet him toe-to-toe in what should be a thrilling fight. And with the pair slugging away in the pocket, Poirier’s ability to take the fight to the mat could prove crucial to help him bank crucial rounds en route to a decision victory.

It should be a phenomenal matchup, and we’re taking Poirier to edge it on the scorecards – just – and claim a Hollywood ending to his legendary fighting career. Most bookies have Poirier listed at events, but BetMGM have him at odds-against. 

PICK: Dustin Poirier to win @ 27/25 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

MMA markets tend to be pretty stingy when you’re looking at standard head-to-head fight odds, but occasionally something leaps off the page as being particularly good value, making it a great opportunity for a value side bet.

That’s exactly what we have with the featherweight matchup between Dan Ige and Patricio Pitbull. Pitbull has been one of the very best featherweights in the world for the last five or six years, but never had the chance to mix it with the UFC’s best during his time as the featherweight champion in rival promotion Bellator. 

Ige, meanwhile, is a seasoned operator in the UFC who has never been finished, but when he’s come up against truly elite-level opposition, he’s fallen just short. 

Read: What to consider with 1X2 betting and 1X2 betting strategies 

Pitbull’s UFC debut was a disappointing one as he lost out to former interim champion Yair Rodriguez at UFC 314, but that performance was not indicative of the Brazilian’s abilities. 

So to see Pitbull as a sizable betting underdog for this matchup suggests the bookies could be placing a little too much stock on Pitbull’s Octagon debut, while forgetting the stellar performances he delivered in Bellator. 

Based on sheer ability, the 6/4 odds available on Pitbull don’t reflect his chances of success here, and offer great value on a bounceback win. He’ll be focused and determined to make up for an uncharacteristically sub-par showing last time out, so a side bet on Pitbull at those odds looks like a very appealing option.

PICK: Patricio Pitbull to win @ 6/4 (Mr.Play)

FIRST recommendation for UFC 318 best sports betting sites

Our team of betting experts have evaluated UK bookmakers and selected their top three best sites for Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier 3, based on their odds, app interface, transparency, and features. Make sure to sign up today for your free bets welcome bonus.

Responsible gambling with FIRST

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Odds correct at the time of writing.