UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 – Will it be repeat or revenge in bantamweight title rematch?

The UFC Octagon heads to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey with a loaded card of fights for UFC 316, with the men’s and women’s bantamweight world titles both up for grabs at the top of the bill.

In the main event, men’s 135-pound champion Merab Dvalishvili will look to cement his status as the top bantamweight on the planet when he faces off against the man he defeated to win the belt, Sean O’Malley, in a world title rematch.

The co-main event will see women’s 135-pound queen Julianna Pena put her belt on the line against two-time Olympic judo gold medallist and former PFL women’s lightweight champion Kayla Harrison in a title clash that has plenty of heat heading towards fight night in Newark.

Ahead of fight night, we run the rule over the main event to deliver our big-fight prediction, and weigh in with a side bet on Saturday night’s co-headliner.

Tale of the tape: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley

Merab Dvalishvili: Can ‘The Machine’ repeat the feat against O’Malley in the rematch?

Merab Dvalishvili has looked virtually unstoppable since losing his first two UFC bouts back in 2017 and 2018. Since then, he’s gone 12-0 in his last 12 outings, and has defeated a string of former champions along the way. 

The 11th win of his current run came at the famous Sphere in Las Vegas, where he defeated then-champion O’Malley by unanimous decision to capture the bantamweight title at UFC 306. He’s since gone on to defend his belt with another decision win, this time against the previously undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, and now he stands as the clear man to beat at 135 pounds.

He may not be a prolific finisher of fights, but nobody in the UFC has had an answer to his cardio, which even for a pro athlete, is off the charts. He weaponised that conditioning to great effect to capture the belt against O’Malley in the first fight, and he’ll be looking to use his bottomless gas tank to make life very uncomfortable for him again in the rematch.

Sean O’Malley: Will ‘The Suga Show’ hit the big time again?

Ever since his highlight-reel performance on Dana White’s Contender Series, “Suga” Sean O’Malley has been earmarked for stardom. And, when he knocked out Aljamain Sterling to capture the bantamweight title back in 2023, then defended his belt with a dominant decision win over Marlon Vera, it looked like his star was all set to go supernova.

But then O’Malley was outworked, outhustled and outfought by Dvalishvili at UFC 306 as he lost his belt in Las Vegas. Now, after making a slew of changes to his lifestyle and approach to fighting, the former champ is hoping to put right his shortcomings from the first fight and return to the top of the 135-pound division.

He’s a sniper of a striker, and while his wrestling isn’t a match for Dvalishvili’s relentless abilities, O’Malley does have a great equaliser – his punch power. If he lands clean, he can turn any fight upside down. The big question is, can he work an opening, and if he can, can he land big and make it count?

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley 2: The key factors

Mixed martial arts is a sport where the athletes involved have so many different ways to win, or lose, any given fight. But in this case, where the skillsets of both men are so clearly defined, and so clearly contrasting, it’s much easier to assess the factors in play.

Put simply, this fight comes down to two words: takedown defence. In the first meeting between the pair, O’Malley was forced to defend a plethora of takedown attempts from Dvalishvili. And, while he was successful in fending off 60 percent of them, Dvalishvili’s relentless approach and bottomless gas tank meant that, even if O’Malley stuffed his first attempt, there was another one coming right behind it. And it was often those second or third attempts that took the fight to the mat. In all, Dvalishvili landed six of his 15 takedowns attempted. But if you can land six takedowns in a fight, it doesn’t matter how many attempts you needed to get them, especially when, like Dvalishvili, you don’t get tired.

For O’Malley to win the rematch, he needs to not just be able to stuff the first takedown from Dvalishvili. He needs to either get himself out of danger, or stuff the follow-up attempts. If he can do that more effectively in the rematch, it opens the door for him to put his offensive gameplan in place.

O’Malley has legitimate knockout power – he’s finished 12 of his 18 career wins by KO or TKO – and he’ll need to find Dvalishvili’s chin to turn the fight in his favour. Dvalishvili’s in-your-face approach means he’ll always be close enough to hit, especially with O’Malley’s 72-inch reach, but it’s whether the former champion can land with enough force and accuracy to make a real difference to the trajectory of the fight.

If he can’t hit, and hurt, Dvalishvili in the first couple of rounds, it could turn into another long, frustrating night for O’Malley. But if he can detonate something big on Dvalishvili as he comes charging in for the takedown, a knockout victory might not be out of the question.

FIRST’s top tip for Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley 2

Whenever I look at a rematch, I look at how the first fight played out, work out how big of a skill discrepancy there was in the fight, and whether I think the losing fighter has done enough to close that gap ahead of the rematch.

In the case of O’Malley, it’s impossible to say, because we haven’t seen him in action since his defeat to Dvalishvili back in September 2024. He’s likely to be fitter, better conditioned, and quite possibly sharper. All of these should improve his chances of winning. But if he isn’t able to prevent the takedown, it could be another long night for “The Suga Show”. 

For Dvalishvili, the task is very simple. Stay defensively responsible, and put the pressure on O’Malley in the same way he did in the first fight. He couldn’t live with the Georgian’s pace and work rate through the five rounds last time, and it’s unlikely he’ll have improved his cardio to Dvalishvili’s level ahead of the rematch. 

As long as he doesn’t get clipped, it should be “AND STILL” in the main event.

PICK: MERAB DVALISHVILI TO WIN BY DECISION @ 7/10 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

The co-main event clash between Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison might be even more intriguing than the main event. Harrison has a huge wrestling and grappling advantage in this fight, and if she can get Pena to the mat and establish top position, she has the tools to smash her way to victory with a violent barrage of ground and pound. The 3/1 available on Harrison to do exactly that is our pick. But this fight isn’t as cut and dried as the odds may suggest. 

Defending champ Pena is a 5/1 shot just to win the fight, which is insane, and an even more incredible 12/1 to win the fight by decision. If she is going to win, it’ll likely come on the scorecards after weathering an early storm and coming back strongly through the middle and late rounds. Our pick is Harrison by TKO, TKO or DQ, but a small side bet on Pena to win a decision at 12/1 might be a very handy investment if that early stoppage doesn’t come.

PICK: KAYLA HARRISON TO WIN VIA KO, TKO OR DQ @ 3/1 (BETMGM)