Miami Grand Prix betting tips, odds and F1 predictions: Piastri to dominate; but US-backed Haas to surprise in Magic City

Formula One state of play 

Formula One (F1) lands in America for the first of three trips stateside this year. 

It’s been an exciting start to the 2025 season, with three wins for McLaren’s Oscar Piastri, and one win each for teammate Lando Norris, Max Verstappen in the Red Bull, along with a first sprint race win for Lewis Hamiton in his new Ferrari colours.

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For the first time in his relatively short F1 career, Piastri leads the Driver’s Championship, with a 10 point gap to Norris. Piastri is the first Australian to lead the F1 World Championship since Mark Webber in Japan 2010.

McLaren hold the advantage in the Constructors’ Championship too, with a healthy gap of 77 points over Mercedes. 

How the team will balance the ambitions of their two drivers and keep up the charge for McLaren to win a consecutive title will be an interesting dynamic to watch. Intra-team battles have a reputation of ending badly in F1.

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Ferrari are yet to unleash their true potential with the debate raging: has Lewis Hamilton had the best days of his career or do the current ground-effect era cars just not suit him and next year, with the regulation changes, will he be back to his best? 

It is worth noting that since his win at the sprint race in China, Hamilton has looked all at sea in the ‘Prancing Horse’. 

Both he and the Tifosi will hope Miami sees a turnaround in fortunes. It would be almost unbelievable if he were to get another win this weekend.

F1 Miami Grand Prix odds

F1 Miami Grand Prix predictions 

Oscar Piastri will aim to build on his 10 point lead this weekend, with a maximum of 33 points on offer – 8 for winning the sprint race and 25 for the Grand Prix win on Sunday. 

However, Verstappen and Red Bull won the first two races in Miami, in 2022 and 2023, and Norris secured his maiden Formula 1 win last year. Both men will be eager to stop Piastri's early charge for the title.

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The Miami International Autodrome is 5.412 kilometres long, the race being run over 57 laps. Tyres are a step softer than last season (as in Jeddah last time out). The track that wraps itself around the Hard Rock Stadium is very smooth. 

Thermal degradation will be a major factor, as temperatures are expected to be very high, which could see an option for a 2-stop race opening up for some. With an expected pit loss time of 20 seconds, I still think the one stop will be the preferred strategy.

There are three DRS zones, providing the best overtaking opportunities (turns 1, 11 and 17). The combined effect of slipstreaming and DRS produces very high speeds last year, Lance Stroll in his Aston Martin reached 355 km/h in the race.

FIRST’s top tip for the F1 Miami Grand Prix

it’s almost impossible to split the McLaren drivers hence the joint favourite odds for the win.

I’d look further afield to the Mercedes George Russell to stand on the podium, He’s finished in the top three, three times this season and is perfectly placed to capitalize on anyone else’s misfortunes. 

Pick: George Russell for a podium finish - Evens (10bet)

Extra tips 

• So far, the quickest driver in qualifying has never won the race, but has always finished second, worth remembering. 

Leaders in GP: Over 2.5 - 4/7 (Ladbrokes)

• Williams are the best of the rest and I see the team working together, as they did last time out in Jeddah, to secure double-points in Miami. 

Both cars points finish: Williams - 9/4 (10bet)

• Red Bull has so far suffered in high temperatures, so this week might be another race where Yuki Tsunoda struggles.

Not to be classified: Yuki Tsunoda - 7/1 (10bet)

• With just three races in the past, the safety car has been used twice – a 67% chance and I think it’s a fair bet to say we can expect a safety or virtual safety car at some points through the weekend.

Safety car - 1/3 (Ladbrokes) 

• Isack Hadjar in Racing Bulls has impressed so far this season and put in some impressive rookie performances, with two points finishes so far. He could be a good option for a top 10 finish.

Points finish: Isack Hadjar - 10/11 (10bet)

• Watch out for Pierre Gasly in the Alpine. He’s due a good result after crashing out on the first lap in Jeddah. The car looks good if he can just avoid any tangles.

Points finish: Pierre Gasly - 10/11 (10bet)

• Haas are the home favourites, they’ll be looking for another double-points finish this weekend after some decent results so far this season.

Both cars points finish: Haas - 18/1 (10bet) 

Formula 1 standings (Drivers)

Formula 1 constructors (Constructors)

All odds correct at the time of writing.