Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs William Scull betting tips: Who will be crowned undisputed super-middleweight champion on Cinco de Mayo?

Four-weight world champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez aims to become the second-ever undisputed super-middleweight world champion in the four-belt era, since he made history as the first to do so in November 2021.

The Mexican megastar defended his undisputed status on five occasions before being forced to give up the IBF belt last year.

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The 34-year-old from Guadalajara opted to fight Edgar Berlanga over his IBF mandatory and was forced to relinquish the red belt.

Cuban stylist William Scull, 32, was the IBF #1 and was ordered to fight for the vacant belt against the IBF #2 Vladimir Shishkin, emerging victorious in the country where he is based - Germany.

Now the new IBF champion not only looks forward to defending his world title for the first time but also has a chance to become undisputed, as his opponent holds all the other belts at super-middleweight.

However, Scull needs to heed the age-old adage, ‘be careful what you wish for’, because Canelo believes that the IBF belt is rightfully his and he’s keen to get it back again.

The two super-middleweight world champions will clash for all the marbles in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, live on DAZN PPV from 10am PT / 1pm ET / 5pm GMT.

Tale of the tape: Canelo vs William Scull

Canelo: Can the Mexican megastar make more history for his country during their Cinco de Mayo celebrations? 

It’s difficult to sum up Canelo’s accolades just as a four-weight world champion and first-ever undisputed super-middleweight champion in a four-belt era. The man has been the face of boxing for several years, and when he fights, the whole world stops still to watch.

He won Ring Magazine Fighter of the Year and the Sugar Ray Robinson Award in 2019 and 2021 respectively. Now approaching his mid-30s, some believe he is nearing the twilight of his career, but he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down just yet.

His only two defeats have come at the hands of generational great, Floyd Mayweather, taking the fight perhaps just a little too soon in 2013 before he had reached the peak of his powers.

His only other loss was much more recently in 2022 to the masterful Dmitry Bivol up at light-heavyweight, where he is now reigning as undisputed champion after defeating Atrur Beterbiev earlier this year.

Just two defeats in 66 contests, spanning 20 years, proves how hard he is to beat. Canelo is very versatile and experienced, but he also possesses a high IQ, often intelligently setting traps; a fantastic counter-puncher with the precision and power to sweep opponents off their feet with a single blow, as many of his recent rivals have discovered first-hand.

Trained by Eddy Reynoso, Canelo has defeated two Hall of Famers – Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto – and 20 world champions, including the likes of Erislandy Lara, Amir Khan, Gennadiy Golovkin, Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev, Callum Smith, Caleb Plant, Jermell Charlo and Jaime Munguia.

The history-making Mexican is a future Hall of Famer himself and has another chance to make history against Scull on his country’s annual celebratory weekend. This will be the 10th time he has performed on the Cinco de Mayo weekend, so it’s a landmark number that he will be determined to mark with a resounding victory to add to the festivities.

William Scull: Can the Cuban rip up the script to spoil Canelo’s Mexican celebrations?

32-year-old Cuban William Scull boxed his first nine pro fights out in Argentina, but has since moved his base to Germany, where he has fought 11 times, culminating in his IBF world title crowning in October last year.

Known as “El Indomable”, the Berlin-based boxer became the IBF champ with a unanimous decision victory over unbeaten Vladimir Shishkin in October last year. 

Despite the undivided opinion at ringside, it was actually a very close contest. In the final round, Scull’s legs appeared to buckle under the weight of a double jab from Shishkin, who piled on the pressure and appeared to continuously hurt the Cuban, who managed to ride it out to the final bell to his awaiting prize.

A victory that has led him to the ultimate prize, but he has a Herculean task ahead of him and a formidable foe to contend with in Canelo.

Canelo vs William Scull: The key factors 

Canelo has been a pro for 20 years now and has boxed in over 500 rounds. Scull has only been pro for around eight years with just 144 rounds under his belt, so there is a vast disparity in experience.

Scull only possesses a lowly nine KOs (39% KO ratio) compared to Canelo’s 39 (62.9%). However, the Cuban does have a height and reach advantage, but the shorter Mexican is used to fighting bigger men; his last opponent was six inches taller than him and he dropped him in the third round.

However, despite the difference in power, both fighters’ last knockout wins came at the same time in November 2021, and their last five fights have all ended in unanimous decision wins.

However, only one of Canelo’s last eight victims to not hit the deck against him was the formidable Kazakh Gennadiy Golovkin.

Scull’s best punch is the overhand right, but it doesn’t carry the power required to trouble Canelo. Plus, in past fights, he has had to land it several times to make an impact, so he isn’t blessed with one-punch power. Canelo, however, is. His counter-punching, precision and timing has seen him drop opponents with a single shot. They often return to their feet, but Canelo is patient and happy to keep fighting rather than go in for the kill.

Defensive and instinctive, Scull may take a few rounds for Canelo to get to, but he has the IQ to go with the experience, and knows exactly how to break his opponents down. The Cuban will need to start the fight sharp and busy, perpetually moving and not lingering in one spot for too long to risk gifting the titan in front of him any opportunities. That, however, requires a lot of energy and will be difficult to maintain for too many rounds.

Expect Canelo to take his time to get to Scull, but when he slows him down and catches up to him, that’s when the writing could be on the wall.

FIRST’s’ top tip for Canelo vs William Scull 

Canelo has floored his last four victims in an average of 4-5 rounds, and his recent knockout wins have averaged 7.2 rounds, so our top tip is for Canelo to KO Scull, which is currently 15/4 at Bet365.

H3: Extra tips

Canelo to KO Scull in rounds 4-6 is currently 17/4 with Spreadex.

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas

Naoya Inoue versus Ramon Cardenas closes the Cinco de Mayo weekend on Sunday 5 May at the T-Mobile Arena, live on ESPN.

The Japanese monster is back on American soil for the first time in almost four years. Inoue (29-0, 26 KOs) returns as a two-weight undisputed champion, now undefeated in 29 bouts with 26 KOs.

WBA #1 Cardenas (26-1, 14 KOs) has just once loss on his record, way back in 2017, which was a narrow mixed decision defeat against a Mexican in Mexico.

The Texan has a mean left hook and really turns his hips into his bent arm shots. His KO ratio of 53.85% doesn’t really tell the full story because he has dropped many opponents with a single big shot.

Inoue is currently riding on a 10-fight knockout streak, averaging 6.6 rounds per KO. When he fights it’s usually when will the knockout come, not if. Now that he is a world champion in his fourth weight division, the opponents are getting bigger and stronger, which he found out when he was dropped in the first round by Luis Nery. So, he isn’t invincible, but he’s not far off! He’s pound-for-pound top 3 in the world for a reason.

I believe that Cardenas will represent a very decent opponent for Inoue and will provide him with a tough fight, but I do believe Inoue will collect another knockout, perhaps in the second half of the contest.

Inoue to beat Cardenas by KO, TKO or DQ is 1/10 with BetMGM.