UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes betting tips: Who leaves Miami as new featherweight champ?

The UFC featherweight title is up for grabs as the UFC heads to Miami, Florida for UFC 314 this weekend. 

Following Ilia Topuria’s decision to vacate the featherweight title and move up to chase championship glory at lightweight, the 145-pound title sits vacant, with a new champion set to be crowned at Kaseya Center on Saturday night.

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Former champion Alexander Volkanovski returns looking to recapture the title he held for more than four years. But he’ll face stiff opposition for the belt as he takes on surging contender Diego Lopes, who arrives in Miami in career-best form and is ready to become a UFC world champion.

Tale of the tape: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

Alexander Volkanovski: Can Aussie legend recapture his former glories?

Alexander Volkanovski will go down in history as one of the greatest featherweight fighters in UFC history. The big question is, will he go into the record books as a two-time featherweight champion?

That’s what we’re going to find out on Saturday night as he answers the questions that have been hanging in the air ever since his knockout loss to Ilia Topuria back in February 2024. 

His second-round KO defeat to the Spaniard saw him lose his featherweight title. But more importantly, it was his second successive knockout loss, with the knockout coming less than four months after his knockout defeat to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev at UFC 294 in October 2023. 

Now Volkanovski is back, fully rested, and ready to show the world that he’s ready to retake the featherweight throne once more. 

His resume stacks up against the very best to ever do it at 145 pounds but, given his last two outings, a championship-winning comeback this weekend would surely rank right up there with his greatest-ever performances.

Volkanovski already holds a number of statistical UFC records in the featherweight division, and he can move one step closer to another with victory on Saturday. 

A win over Lopes would take him to seven title fight victories at featherweight, one shy of the all-time record held by Jose Aldo. 

Diego Lopes: Can Brazilian star turn momentum into a title win? 

Diego Lopes has enjoyed a meteoric rise up the UFC’s featherweight division. Now, he faces the biggest opportunity of his career in the biggest fight of his life. 

Can he turn his stellar form into a win over the greatest featherweight of all time and capture the 145-pound title in the process?

Lopes arrived in the UFC on super-short notice as he took on undefeated Russian Movsar Evloev on just five days’ notice at UFC 288. It was a fight that few gave him a chance of winning, but he pushed Evloev all the way to the judges’ scorecards, winning a round on two of the three judges’ scorecards in a losing effort. 

It showed that Lopes had the natural talent and physicality to hang with one of the featherweight division’s best, and gave him the confidence to head into his UFC career with gusto.

Since then, it’s been nothing but wins for Lopes, who has reeled off five straight victories, including claiming the scalps of longtime contender Dan Ige and former title challenger Brian Ortega. 

His all-action fighting style has made him a real handful for whoever he’s faced so far. And with the chance to complete an incredible rise to the top this weekend, you can bet he’ll be attacking this matchup every bit as aggressively as we’ve seen to date.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes: The key factors

Many factors play into the success or failure of a fighter on fight night, but ahead of Saturday night’s main event, one thing in particular dominates the discussion – Volkanovski’s durability.

The former featherweight champion was previously seen as one of the toughest, most durable fighters in the 145-pound class, but his back-to-back losses to Makhachev and Topuria have cast a big question mark over the former champion’s durability moving forward.

In truth, Volkanovski’s decision to come back so quickly from the Makhachev loss may have contributed to the nature of his loss to Topuria. 

But, as he prepares to return to the cage following a year-long layoff, all eyes are on the Aussie, with big question marks over his durability following those two KO losses. 

Has a rested, recuperated, refreshed Volkanovski returned to the condition that took him to a dominant championship reign, or is his chin now compromised as a result of those two crushing defeats?

We know Volkanovski’s cardio will be on point – few, if any, can match Volkanovski’s pace over a five-round matchup at 145 pounds. We also know his game plan will be solid. His team, led by longtime head coach Joe Lopez, will have all bases covered on that front. 

But how will he fare against a rising star of the division, who can finish fights both on the feet and on the mat? 

If Volkanovski is back to 100%, it’s hard to pick against him. But you just can’t ignore what happened to him in those last two fights, and that has to be a consideration for bettors heading into Saturday’s fight.

For Lopes, meanwhile, there are also questions to answer. Is this chance coming at the perfect time in his career, or is this a step too far, too early? 

His career trajectory suggests his title shot is well-timed. But until he’s in there, facing a legend in a five-round title fight, we won’t know for sure.

What we do know ahead of time is Lopes is anything but a one-trick pony. The Brazilian carries a legitimate dual threat to Volkanovski, with 12 of his 26 career wins coming via submission, and 10 more coming via KO/TKO. 

Ahead of his bout with the former champion, Lopes said he thinks he’ll get the win via knockout – possibly as a result of what he’s seen from the Aussie’s last two fights. 

But, make no mistake, if a submission opportunity presents itself, he won’t hesitate to take it.

If momentum is a determining factor, Lopes has the edge. He has looked superb in the Octagon over the last few fights, and he’s coming into his prime. Now he faces the job of toppling a legend to reach the featherweight summit.

FIRST’s top tip for Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

If this fight had taken place before Volkanovski’s foray to lightweight to challenge Makhachev, the Australian would be a sizeable favourite to win. 

But it’s impossible to ignore what happened to him in his rematch with the Russian, and then what happened when he came back too quickly against Topuria. 

It would be an incredible story for Volkanovski to bounce back and become a two-time champion. But an inside-the-distance victory for Lopes seems like the smartest pick here, with BetMGM offering odds on him to ‘win by finish’, which covers both KO or submission outcomes.

PICK: DIEGO LOPES TO WIN BY FINISH @ 15/8 (BetMGM)

Extra tips

The main card opener between light heavyweights Nikita Krylov and Dominick Reyes may be flying under the radar as far as fan attention goes, but the bookies’ strong fancying of Krylov leaves the door open for some very nice value on Reyes. 

The former title challenger is on form, is by far the more dynamic striker, and has finished both of his last two opponents, former kickboxer Dustin Jacoby and former title challenger Anthony Smith. 

However, Krylov has only been stopped with strikes once in 39 fights, so backing Reyes to get the job done on the scorecards looks like a solid pick at 17/4 with BetMGM.

Pick: DOMINICK REYES TO WIN ON POINTS @ 17/4 (BetMGM)

Odds correct at the time of writing.