UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev betting tips: Can the Brazilian superstar make it four title defences in a row?

Pereira vs Ankalaev full fight card

Main card

Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev – for light heavyweight title

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

Jalin Turner vs Ignacio Bahamondes

Amanda Lemos vs Iasmin Lucindo

King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy

Preliminary card

Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev

Joshua Van vs Rei Tsuruya

Brunno Ferreira vs Armen Petrosyan

Alex Morono vs Carlos Leal

Early prelims

Mairon Santos vs Francis Marshall

Djorden Santos vs Ozzy Diaz

Chris Gutierrez vs John Castaneda

The undisputed UFC light heavyweight title is on the line as the octagon returns home to Las Vegas for UFC 313.

Headlining the card is a huge clash for the 205-pound world title as Brazilian superstar Alex Pereira bids to register his fourth successive title defence in the space of 12 months. Standing in his way is arguably the toughest challenge to his light heavyweight reign so far.

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Russia’s Magomed Ankalaev has looked every inch like a future world champion as he has torn through the UFC’s 205-pound division, and only a highly controversial draw against Jan Blachowicz in his first title fight prevented him from reaching the top of the division at UFC 282 back in December 2022.

Two years on, Ankalaev is ready to take over the division, but to do that, he’ll have to topple one of the most feared finishers in the sport.

Tale of the tape: Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev

Alex Pereira: Can ‘Poatan’ continue cleaning out the light heavyweight division?

Alex Pereira’s rise to the top of the UFC has been one of the biggest success stories in MMA in recent years. 

The Brazilian made his name in the sport of kickboxing, where he became a two-weight world champion with the GLORY kickboxing promotion, where he twice defeated former UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.

That link with ‘The last stylebender’ saw Pereira eventually transition to UFC, and he quickly made his way through the to the upper-echelons, where he became an instant contender in the 185-pound division and eventually dethroned Adesanya to become undisputed middleweight champion.

Adesanya avenged that loss in their rematch, and Pereira moved up to light heavyweight, where his striking appeared to carry even more power than before. 

His first four fights all came against current or former champions as he decisioned Jan Blachowicz on his divisional debut, then stopped Jiri Prochazka to capture the undisputed 205-pound title. 

A crushing knockout of former champ Jamahal Hill followed at UFC 300 before he finished Prochazka again at UFC 303 to cement himself as the premier light heavyweight on the planet.

Most recently, he faced emerging contender Khalil Rountree Jr in a fight that saw Pereira go into the trenches in a back-and-forth slugfest. 

It required the Brazilian to dig deeper than we’ve seen before, but his power shone through once again as he finished a busted-up Rountree in the fourth round to register the third-straight defence of his title.

Now he faces Ankalaev, with many believing the Russian will pose the stiffest test of his title reign so far. If he claims another victory, there won’t be too many contenders left in the division he hasn’t already defeated.

Magomed Ankalaev: Can the Dagestani contender finally reach his potential?

Ever since he arrived in the UFC, Ankalaev has been earmarked as a champion of the future. Now it’s time for him to prove that his time is now.

After a shocking last-second submission defeat to Paul Craig on his Octagon debut in London, Ankalaev has gone on a tear as he’s demolished the opposition on his way up the light heavyweight ladder.

After winning six in a row following his shock defeat, Ankalaev broke into the elite bracket at 205 pounds with a hat-trick of victories. These were over former title challengers Volkan Oezdemir, Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith. 

Those wins, ultimately, earned him a shot at the light heavyweight title vacated by Jon Jones, as he took on former champion Jan Blachowicz at UFC 282.

Despite appearing to do enough to win the fight – 23 of 25 journalists whose scores were tracked on the night scored the fight to Ankalaev – the Russian contender was left in tears of frustration after the judges returned a stunning split draw verdict.

Ankalaev looked to bounce back against Johnny Walker, only for the fight to be ruled a no-contest mid-way through the opening round. 

It meant a rematch had to be booked, and Ankalaev made a huge statement with a massive second-round knockout to get him back in the win column and back in the championship conversation. 

A unanimous decision victory over Austrian contender Aleksandar Rakic dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s on his title contendership, and he was handed his second shot at the belt with a fight against Pereira this weekend at UFC 313.

Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev: The key factors

There are very few secrets involved when Alex Pereira fights. His style is well-established at this stage. 

He’s going to walk forward and apply controlled pressure. Once he has his range and timing set, he’ll unleash vicious strikes that will either knock out or break down his opponents en route to a stoppage victory.

It’s a formula that has seen him capture UFC world titles in two weight classes, all while his overall MMA game has improved along the way. 

His defensive wrestling and clinch work against the cage has ensured that he always has the platform for his elite-level striking, and nobody at 205 pounds has been able to find the answer for it.

Ankalaev feels he does, and he brings a skillset that few, if any, of Pereira’s past opponents have shown in his past fights.

For starters, Ankalaev's striking is also excellent. He has 11 knockouts to his name, with a wide range of striking techniques bringing about his stoppage wins. 

His use of kicks will offer a different approach than most of Pereira’s past opponents, while his one-shot KO power means Pereira cannot be complacent on the feet. 

One well-timed shot could be all Ankalaev needs to finish the fight, and seeing Adesanya knock out ‘Poatan’ to reclaim the middleweight belt at UFC 287 will give the Russian all the confidence that his power will be good enough to get the job done… if he can land it.

Ankalaev’s other ace up his sleeve is his wrestling. Dagestani fighters are famed for their smothering, dominant wrestling skills, but Ankalaev’s preference to stand and bang means we haven’t seen as much of it as we have from many of his compatriots over the years. 

That doesn’t mean it’s not there, however, and Ankalaev’s best route to victory will undoubtedly involve wrestling – whether that’s actually taking the fight to the mat or using the threat of the takedown to land big shots on the feet.

Ultimately, though, the fight starts standing, and Ankalaev will have to find openings for either his takedown attempts or his strikes. And against a buzzsaw like Pereira, that’s an incredibly perilous task.

FIRST’s top tip for Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev poses a clear and present danger to Pereira’s title reign, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Dagestani ace got the job done. 

But Pereira is on top of his game right now, and with his takedown defence vastly improved from his early MMA career, he should be able to control the range with his longer reach and superior striking, then punish Ankalaev when he looks to close the distance. 

Ankalaev is super-confident in his striking, and that could end up being his undoing, as the longer he stands in front of Pereira, the greater the chances of him being knocked out become. 

He’s never been KO’d before, but there’s a first time for everything, and that first time could well be this Saturday night.

PICK: ALEX PEREIRA TO WIN BY KO/TKO/DQ - 11/8 (BetMGM)

Extra tips

Getting odds-against on a Justin Gaethje win is a rarity, and the 13/10 odds available with Betway for him to defeat a Rafael Fiziev who is coming in on two weeks’ notice looks like great value. 

Yes, Gaethje was KO’d for the first time in his career by Max Holloway last time out, but he’s still an elite operator, and he’s fought and defeated Fiziev before. 

The odds are the bookies questioning whether Gaethje will be the same man after that KO. Given the circumstances of the matchup, 13/10 is too good to ignore.

PICK: JUSTIN GAETHJE TO BEAT RAFAEL FIZIEV - 13/10 (Betway)

Odds correct at the time of writing.