UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 – Who leaves as champion after light heavyweight title rematch?

After jetting off to Australia last week, The UFC returns to its Las Vegas home, as the T-Mobile Arena plays host to UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira, as the top two 205-pounders on the planet go head to head for the second time in a bid for light heavyweight supremacy.

Magomed Ankalaev enters the weekend as the undisputed UFC light heavyweight champion, but despite defeating former champion Alex Pereira to capture the title. 

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He’s been told he has to repeat the feat to cement his status. For Pereira, meanwhile, it’s a chance to right the wrongs of his last performance and prove once again that he’s the dominant force at 205 pounds.

Tale of the tape: Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

Magomed Ankalaev: Can Russian champion cement his status as the top dog at 205?

It took Ankalaev a roundabout route to get to the top of the light heavyweight division, with controversy slowing his progress up the 205-pound ladder. But, crucially, he has maintained his form, despite those unforeseen obstacles.

A controversial split draw with Jan Blachowicz cost him what many thought was a championship victory when he challenged for the vacant title back in 2022. Then, as he attempted to bounce back, his bout with Johnny Walker ended in an unfortunate no contest that necessitated an immediate rematch.

That all slowed Ankalaev’s progress, but after he knocked out Walker in the rematch, he outpointed Austrian contender Aleksandar Rakic to earn a title shot. His unanimous decision win over Pereira saw him finally crowned champion.

With his only career defeat coming in the last second of his UFC debut against Scottish submission ace Paul Craig, Ankalaev’s resume is as impressive as it gets at the top level. He’s defeated Pereira once, and now he will look to do it again to leave no argument over who the top dog at 205 pounds really is.

Alex Pereira: Can former champion blast his way back to the top of the division?

Whether it’s in the kickboxing ring or the UFC’s Octagon, Alex Pereira is one of the most dangerous combat athletes on the planet.

The Brazilian captured world championships in two different weight classes in GLORY Kickboxing, before transitioning fully to MMA and surging into the UFC. He quickly moved up the middleweight division and finished off his old kickboxing rival Israel Adesanya to capture the UFC middleweight crown.

Adesanya got revenge in the rematch, after which Pereira moved up to light heavyweight and immediately put himself in line for a title shot with a hard-earned split-decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz. 

He then faced former champ Jiri Prochazka for the belt and KO’d the Czech superstar to become a two-division world champion in two different sports.

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Pereira then defended his title three times, stopping former champions Jamahal Hill and Prochazka, before finishing Khalil Rountree after a four-round firefight at UFC 307. 

His next challenge came in the form of Ankalaev, whose controlled, but reserved, approach allowed few opportunities for Pereira to really showcase his elite striking as the Russian smartly worked his way to a unanimous decision win.

Now Pereira has had almost five months to make the necessary adjustments, but will it be enough to turn the tables on Ankalaev and win back the light heavyweight belt?

Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira: The key factors

After a pretty cagey first meeting between the pair, it will be very interesting to see who deviates from their tactics from the first fight, and who looks to keep things relatively compact.

For Ankalaev, he’ll probably be thinking he doesn’t need to change too much – after all, he won the first fight by virtue of him winning all three of the middle rounds. But for Pereira, who will have seen his best successes in the first and last rounds, there’s the issue of not just pushing the pace, but maintaining it that he’s had to address.

It could mean that the Brazilian comes out all guns blazing in a bid to overwhelm Ankalaev early. But, given the Russian’s own fight-finishing power, that could be an unwise move. 

What is clear, however, is that Pereira will need to up his work rate, and ensure he outlands Ankalaev more clearly throughout the matchup, and that means more forward pressure.

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Ankalaev works best when he’s controlling the range, and Pereira needs to deny him that luxury. For Ankalaev, meanwhile, he needs to control the pace, and have Pereira dancing to his tune.

Both men have devastating knockout power, and while Ankalaev hasn’t been KO’d in his career, if there’s one man in the UFC capable of separating the Russian from his senses, it’s Pereira. But Pereira has suffered a big knockout before in the UFC, courtesy of Adesanya. 

Ankalaev is bigger, heavier, and is a naturally harder puncher than the former middleweight champion. But he isn’t faster, and Pereira’s ability to fight in bursts, at speed, could prove very helpful against the Russian, who prefers to keep things at one pace.

The onus will be firmly on Pereira to bring something different to the table. But ultimately, what he needs is to land the sort of power shots that took out Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Prochazka, Hill and Rountree. If he can do that, the belt could be coming back to Brazil. If he can’t, and he’s forced to stay on the outside and go tit-for-tat with Ankalaev, the fight may well go the same way as last time.

FIRST’s top tip for Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

Pereira certainly has the capability, and the firepower, to turn things around and recapture the title. But the general rule when you see an immediate rematch for a UFC title is that the champion more often than not retains his belt. 

Ironically, one exception to that was Pereira himself, who defeated Adesanya to win the middleweight title, only to lose in the rematch.

But, in the main, the smart play is to back the fighter who won the first time to get the job done the second time, and that’s our pick here. Pereira is the more exciting fighter, and he’ll need to make the fight more exciting to create the openings he needs. 

But Ankalaev, while a little too risk-averse to be a true fan-favourite, has the perfect style for a defending champion. He doesn’t have to go chasing – it’s never been his style – and he has what it takes to take the win again, with Betway 6/5 on the champion to retain on the scorecards offering some decent value on that outcome.

PICK: MAGOMED ANKALAEV TO WIN BY DECISION  @ 6/5 (Betway)

Extra tips

The co-main event will see  a bantamweight title fight between dominant reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili, and first-time challenger, but longtime contender, Cory Sandhagen. 

Sandhagen is in the best form of his career, and possesses plenty of finishing ability, but very few fighters can use their finishing ability when they’re stuck on their back, and taking people down is Dvalishvili’s speciality. 

Dvalishvili is a big favourite to win, and for good reason. He’s one of the UFC’s pound-for-pound best.

PICK: MERAB DVALISHVILI TO WIN BY DECISION @ 1/2 (Betway)

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Odds correct at the time of writing.