UFC Perth: Ulberg vs Reyes – Light heavyweights collide in search of title shot

There’s a new look to the top of the UFC’s light heavyweight division. Russia’s Magomed Ankalaev is the new champion at 205 pounds, and all set to put his title on the line against Alex Pereira at UFC 320. 

But before then, a crucial clash will take place in Perth, Australia, as in-form contenders Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes face off in a bid to put them next in line for a shot at the title.

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The pair headline the fight card in Australia knowing that, with rival contenders Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree also set to face off at UFC 320, nothing less than a win, and an impressive one, will be enough as they each look to cement themselves as the top contender in the division.

Tale of the tape: Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes

Carlos Ulberg: Can Kiwi kickboxer strike his way to success?

A part-time model when he’s away from the cage, Ulberg has very much looked the part, both inside and outside the Octagon, as he’s made his way up the 205-pound division. The Kiwi earned his spot in the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2021, but lost via TKO to Kennedy Nzechukwu on his Octagon debut at UFC 259.

Since that rude awakening, Ulberg has been near-perfect inside the Octagon. Eight wins from eight fights – including five finishes – have seen him surge to the sharp end of the UFC’s light heavyweight division. 

Plus, in his two most recent outings, the New Zealander has shown his readiness for a title tilt with decision victories over former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir and former champion Jan Blachowicz.

Now tasked with the job of defeating another former title challenger in Reyes, Ulberg stands potentially just one win away from a shot at championship gold. If he can put Reyes away in emphatic fashion, it would be very hard to deny him.

Dominick Reyes: Can former title challenger return to the light heavyweight elite?

In another timeline, Dominick Reyes would already have been UFC light heavyweight champion, and would have been the first man to legitimately defeat Jon Jones inside the Octagon. 

His bout with “Bones” remains one of the great “what ifs” of MMA history, with many observers on the night of their bout at UFC 247 thinking that Reyes had done enough to topple the pound-for-pound great that evening.

However, Jones eked out a decision win, and Reyes fell into a competitive funk. Knockout losses to Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka and Ryan Spann followed, as Reyes looked a shadow of the fighter who surged into title contention in the years prior. Was this the end of “The Devastator” as a top-tier light heavyweight contender?

Reyes took a year away from the sport to rest, reset and recover, then, after two prior bookings with Ulberg fell through, he eventually returned with a knockout of Dustin Jacoby in June 2024. 

It looked like the old Reyes was back, and subsequent stoppages of Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov proved it. Now Reyes is back in form, and ready to reintroduce himself to the light heavyweight elite.

Victory over Ulberg could put him back into a title fight, and a shot at redemption.

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes: The key factors

This matchup pits two of the best finishers in the division head to head in what could well be an all-striking matchup. And, when you view it in that context, Ulberg is a justifiable betting favourite.

Both men have power, and Reyes has the size and wingspan to match Ulberg, but it’s that control of distance and that no-man’s-land area between them during the fight that will prove crucial, and while Reyes is a seasoned striker, his striking and movement aren’t as smooth and precise as Ulberg’s.

Reyes has the power to shut out the lights of any light heavyweight in the UFC, and Ulberg will need to mind his P’s and Q’s at all times. 

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If he gets a little too lax, Reyes has the power to punish him. But if he stays switched on, like he did against fellow power-puncher Oezdemir two fights ago, he has the ability to outclass just about anyone in the division on the feet.

Given Ulberg’s pedigree on the feet, you might think that Reyes could turn to his wrestling, but past performance suggests that he might struggle to implement that approach. His takedown average per 15 minutes is even lower than Ulberg’s, while his success rate when attempting them is a paltry 28 percent. 

That suggests that this fight is more than likely to play out on the feet, and all the advantages sit on Ulberg’s side of the coin.

FIRST’s top tip for Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes

Reyes has a puncher’s chance here. His power is formidable, and as we mentioned above, Ulberg will need to respect that if he’s to avoid an upset defeat. 

But the Kiwi is a seasoned striker and he’s in outstanding form. He’s faced power punchers in his last few fights, and he’s dealt with them all.

Reyes offers a fresh challenge, but Ulberg’s striking is just a bit sharper, a bit more accurate, than the former title challenger. And if the New Zealander arrives on fight night in top shape, he should have what it takes to get the job done. Whether it’s good enough to earn him the next title shot is anyone’s guess.

PICK: CARLOS ULBERG TO WIN @ 4/11 (William Hill)

Extra tips

Welsh welterweight Oban Elliott suffered his first UFC defeat last time out to South Korea’s Ko Seok Hyeon, and he faces local opposition in Australia in the form of 8-1 Jonathan Micallef. 

The Aussie earned the win on his UFC debut last time out as he outpointed France’s Kevin Jousset at UFC 312, but Elliott has a bit more experience at UFC level, and has the sort of grit and determination to overcome Micallef’s home-cage advantage. 

“The Welsh Gangster” is a narrow betting favourite for the fight, at 3/4, but looking around the fight card this weekend, he looks like the best value option from those we fancy to get their hands raised on Saturday night.

PICK: OBAN ELLIOTT TO WIN @ 4/5 (William Hill)

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Odds correct at the time of writing.