UFC Paris: Imavov vs Borralho – Who’ll move closer to a middleweight title shot?

UFC betting tips for the UFC Paris main event between middleweight contenders Nassourdine Imavov of France and Caio Borralho of Brazil at Accor Arena in Paris, France, on Saturday, 6 September.

The winds of change are blowing through the UFC’s middleweight division, with a new champion in the form of Khamzat Chimaev. Now all eyes are on the division’s top contenders as four fighters vie for position to be the first challenger to the new champ.

Two of those contenders will go head to head in Paris, as France’s Nassourdine Imavov takes on Brazil’s Caio Borralho in a battle that could potentially propel the winner into a title fight later this year.

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Both fighters have carved out a reputation for being among the toughest, most dangerous contenders in the UFC’s 185-pound class, but only one can move closer to championship contention. We’ll find out who on Saturday when Imavov and Borralho go toe-to-toe in the main event at the Accor Arena.

Tale of the tape: Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho

Nassourdine Imavov: Can French contender make home advantage count?

Imavov heads into the main event on home soil in the best form of his career. He’s riding a four-fight win streak that includes a decision victory over Roman Dolidze, a fourth-round TKO of former title challenger Jared Cannonier and a unanimous decision win over Brendan Allen. 

But it was his most recent victory that cemented Imavov as a legitimate threat to the middleweight title.

That win came at UFC Riyadh in February, when he blasted his way to a second-round TKO finish of two-time champion Israel Adesanya. So impressive was Imavov that night that he was immediately installed as the number-one contender for the middleweight title. 

But, with the UFC opting to give Chimaev a shot at then-champ Dricus Du Plessis, Imavov was forced to sit in the stands and watch as “Borz” dethroned Du Plessis for the title at UFC 319. 

Now Imavov has his chance to grab the spotlight once again, and knows that, with a passionate French crowd set to be roaring him on, he has the chance to deliver a huge statement and put himself next in line. But, matched against one of the smartest, most well-rounded contenders in the division, he faces a tough test to get there.

Caio Borralho: Can the leader of ‘The Fighting Nerds’ jump the queue and earn a title shot?

Of the four names vying for the next middleweight title shot – along with Imavov, Reinier De Ridder and Anthony Hernandez – Caio Borralho is the lowest-ranked contender, sitting seventh in the official UFC middleweight rankings. But he has the chance to push his way to the front of the queue this weekend.

Borralho hasn't lost a fight in a decade, with his solitary defeat coming in his second pro outing back in the summer of 2015. He claimed back-to-back wins in Dana White's Contender Series to earn a shot in the UFC, and since then, he's made seven appearances inside the Octagon, winning all seven.

Solid wins against the likes of Armen Petrosyan, Makhmud Muradov and Michal Oleksiejczuk helped establish him as a potential contender-in-waiting, and victories over Paul Craig and former title challenger Jared Cannonier put the Brazilian into the top 10.

Now he faces the biggest test of his career in a bout that could establish him as the top threat to Khamzat Chimaev at the top of the division. His blend of solid striking and black-belt level grappling makes him one of the most well-rounded contenders in the division, and he feels he's the man best equipped to dethrone Chimaev. 

To do that, he'll have to deal with Imavov, who is likely thinking exactly the same...

Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho: The key factors

This bout is harder to pick than a broken nose, with Imavov and Borralho looking incredibly closely matched on paper. But, while it’s very difficult to separate the pair, one intangible that could sway the fight is the French crowd.  

Held on neutral territory, Imavov vs Borralho looks as close to a coin-flip fight as you’ll find. But put it in the Accor Arena, where a passionate, raucous crowd will be firmly in Imavov’s corner, and the scales might tilt slightly towards the Frenchman.

The French crowds are renowned for generating an electric, memorable atmosphere, and that noise and energy could help inspire Imavov to another huge performance.

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The other factor when comparing the two is the nature of their recent performances. While Borralho’s style suggests he’ll look to grind his way to victory, Imavov is coming into this fight after two eye-catching finishes of championship-level opposition in his last three outings. 

Those stoppage victories over Jared Cannonier and Israel Adesanya have shown Imavov’s explosive power, and that power might just be the differentiating factor in the fight.

Borralho has the ability to control the tempo of fights, using solid stand-up skills and well-timed takedowns and ground control. But Imavov has solid takedown defence, and if he can nullify Borralho’s wrestling threat, he holds the advantage in the stand-up.

FIRST’s top tip for Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho

Despite the bookies leaning towards Borralho for this fight, we’re going to oppose that view here. Imavov’s recent wins have been more impressive, and against a higher calibre of opponent. 

And in their fights against their one shared opponent – Cannonier – Imavov was the more emphatic winner, stopping the former title challenger with strikes, while Borralho ground out a decision.

The more impressive recent performances, coupled with the striking advantage and the x-factor of fighting at home in front of one of the most passionate crowds in MMA, all contribute to making Imavov the narrow favourite for us this weekend.

PICK: NASSOURDINE IMAVOV TO WIN @ 21/20 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

The heavyweight matchup between seasoned UFC contender Marcin Tybura and UFC newcomer Ante Delija should produce one of the more intriguing matchups on the card. 

Tybura is a consistently underrated contender who tends to fare well against most heavyweights just below the truly elite level. 

But in former PFL heavyweight champion Delija, he’s facing a man who has the potential to become a contender in a heavyweight division that is crying out for some new talent.

Delija now trains alongside UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, as well as light heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas, who is also set for action in Paris. And while Tybura will provide a stern test of his credentials, Delija has the sort of punch power that can cause the big Pole problems, and we like him to get his UFC career off to a flying start with a notable win.

PICK: ANTE DELIJA TO WIN @ 41/50 (BETMGM) 

FIRST's recommended MMA betting sites ahead of UFC Paris 

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Odds correct at the time of writing.