Australian Open betting preview: Can Djokovic beat huge odds to claim 25th grand slam?

The favourites

Men's world number one Jannik Sinner was a whopping 13/2 to win his first Grand Slam 12 months ago and is now the heavy 6/4 favourite to retain his Australian title. Not only did he win the US Open to claim both hard court majors last year, he also picked up silverware on the same surface in Miami, Shanghai, Cincinnati and the ATP Finals. There can be little doubt who the king of the hard court is right now.

Carlos Alcaraz, who claimed the other two grand slams at Roland Garros and Wimbledon last season, is the 10/3 second favourite. The Spaniard is one of the few players with a proven track record against Sinner, boasting wins in four of their six hard-court encounters (six in 10 overall). He'll be keen to add the only slam missing from his trophy cabinet, but I think this year the form guide points to Sinner.

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FIRST's top tip for the men's Australian Open

Jannik Sinner to win outright at 6/4 with BetMGM 

On the women's side of the draw, it's no surprise to see Aryna Sabalenka lead the market at 11/5. The world number one is aiming to lift the trophy for a third year in a row – dropping just one set in the previous two tournaments – and won the last Grand Slam of 2024 with a US Open win. You're not getting the 7/1 and 5/1 odds she was in the previous two years, but there's certainly value at 11/5 for the hard court specialist.

However, my money would be on Coco Gauff, who's just behind the Belarusian at 9/2. 

She heads to the Australian Open fresh off an impressive 2024 WTA Finals win, a triumph that highlights the impact of her new coaching team. Since then, Gauff’s enjoyed a perfect start to the year by winning all five matches in straight sets – her latest coming against world number two Iga Swiatek. I expect to see the 20-year-old continue that form in Melbourne.

FIRST's top tip for the women's Australian Open

Coco Gauff to win the Australian Open at 9/2 with BetMGM 

Extra tips

Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open at 9/2 with BetMGM

Novak Djokovic is determined to win that elusive 25th grand slam and he'll fancy his chances on a court he's won on 10 times before. The Serbian may have dropped to seventh in the world rankings after a slam-less 2024, but he did pick up gold in Paris. And after being the odds-on favourite to win the Australian Open this time last year, the 37-year-old's odds of 9/2 should not be dismissed lightly.

Iga Swiatek to win the Australian Open at 9/2 with BetMGM

Swiatek wasn't quite odds-on like Djokovic, but she was the 12/5 favourite to win it last year. The former world number one is now a more tempting 9/2 and arrives in Melbourne in decent form. Despite a poor start to 2024 – bowing out of the Australian Open in the third round – she did go on to win her fourth French Open and took Poland to the final of the United Cup earlier this month. Can she break her Aussie hoodoo this year?

The value picks

Alex de Minaur to win outright each way at 50/1 with BetMGM

The locals haven't had a homegrown winner in the men's Australian Open since Mark Edmondson in 1976. And Alex de Minaur, ranked eighth in the world, is their best hope to end that 49-year wait. He's only ever reached the fourth round on home soil and is on Sinner's side of the draw – which explains the 50/1 price – but he did just beat Alcaraz in a charity match earlier this week. Who knows what can happen with the home crowd behind him?

Qinwen Zheng to win outright at 16/1 with BetMGM

Qinwen Zheng appears really overpriced at 16/1. The Chinese star became a gold medal winner at the Paris Olympics and saw out the year as number five rank in the world – a career-high. She also reached her first grand slam final at the last Australian Open and narrowly missed out on the WTA Finals title, losing on a tie-break in the deciding set. There's no reason why she can't go one better this year. 

Also worth considering in the Australian Open first round

Pedro Martinez to beat Luciano Darderi at 4/5 with BetMGM [Sunday 4:30am] 

It was a dismal 2024 for Luciano Darderi, who relied on clay matches for 35 of 39 wins last season. And while the Italian did beat Pedro Martinez in Mallorca just six months ago, he's only managed to win one of his last 13 matches – all of which were on hard courts.

It wasn't a remarkable season for Martinez either, but he did reach his first final since 2022 at the 2024 Estoril Open – defeating Casper Rudd in the process to claim his first ever top 10 win. The Spaniard's the slight favourite here and should make the second round.

Linda Noskova to beat Clara Tauson at 10/11 with BetMGM [Sunday 1.10am]

Don't read too much into Linda Noskova's poor form of one win in five. All eyes will be on the 20-year-old after she beat then-world number one Swiatek in last year's third round on the way to the quarter-finals. Surprisingly, she's not the favourite in this one.

[UK Time]. Odds are correct at the time of writing.