Men's Wimbledon final betting tips: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz

After Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz delivered one of the greatest Grand Slam finals in recent memory in Paris a month ago, fans have been eagerly awaiting a rematch, and they'll get exactly that in Sunday’s Wimbledon final.

Alcaraz saw off Taylor Fritz in four sets on Friday to book his place in a third successive final at the All England Club, while world number one Sinner got the better of a physically compromised Novak Djokovic to reach this stage for the first time, becoming just the fifth man since 1995 to feature in the final at all four majors.

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz (Sunday, 4pm)

It’s been a rollercoaster week for Sinner. In the fourth round, he was struggling with an elbow injury and was being thoroughly outplayed by Grigor Dimitrov. But with a two-set lead, the Bulgarian suffered a torn pectoral muscle and was forced to retire - a heartbreaking end to a match he had firmly in his grasp.

The Italian was hugely sympathetic, and perhaps a little embarrassed, as he advanced under such circumstances, but he has made the most of it, raising his game in the rounds that followed. Against Djokovic, he struck the ball with such ferocity and precision that the Serb was given virtually no chance.

Concerns over Sinner’s elbow now seem firmly behind him, and judging this final on recent form alone, the top seed’s numbers edge out Alcaraz’s over the past fortnight. 

He has held serve more consistently, owing to a higher percentage of points won on both first and second serve. On return, he has also outperformed the Spaniard, winning more of his points and converting break points at a slightly higher rate.

FIRST’s top tip for Sinner vs Alcaraz

Alcaraz saved three championship points against Sinner at Roland Garros before turning the match around, extending his winning streak in their head-to-head to five.

Sinner, who won the pair’s only previous meeting on grass, can put the disappointment of Roland Garros behind him and claim a fourth Grand Slam title.

Pick: Sinner to win (28/25 with Matchbook).

Extra tips

Sinner gets the nod in the match winner market, but this has all the makings of another marathon between the two best players in the world.

Alcaraz has a habit of being pulled into long battles. He was just a tie-break away from going to a decider against Fritz in the semi-finals, saving two set points before coming through in four.

Remarkably, each of their last three Grand Slam encounters has gone to a fifth set, and with both men playing at such a high level, a similar epic could well be on the cards.

Pick: 5 Total Sets (2/1 with Ladbrokes).

There were three tie-breaks in the Roland Garros final, and their clash in Rome three weeks earlier also saw the opening set go the distance.

In their meeting before that, in Shanghai in October, both the first and third sets were decided by a 13th game. Given how little separates them, a first-set tie-break would be no surprise.

Pick: Set 1 Over 12.5 Games (5/2 with Betway).

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