ATP Los Cabos Open 2025 betting preview: Rublev ready to find hard court rhythm

While the tennis playing world digests another seismic Grand Slam final between Jannik Sinner and Caros Alcaraz, the weekly grind continues for many on the ATP Tour.

Wimbledon has had the eyes of the sporting public on it over the past fortnight, with Sinner emerging victorious but with the US Open looming, hard court tennis is back on the agenda.

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Having first hit the tour back in 2016, the Los Cabos Open has been seen as a Wimbledon rebound event, due to its positioning on the calendar but it has a very strong winning alumni.

With the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Sam Querrey and Stefanos Tsitsipas all having won this event before, it clearly holds a sense of gravitas on the tour.

Top seed Andrey Rublev is the standout name, especially after his early departure at SW19, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Denis Shapovalov are the other top 30 players in the draw.

There are also some fringe players on the ATP Tour here at Los Cabos, along with some established names and it should be a fascinating week of action here in Mexico.

ATP Los Cabos Open - The favourites

All eyes will be on top seed Andrey Rublev here in Mexico, with the Russian having suffered an alarming drop in form in 2025.

Sliding out of the top 10 is always dangerous, as it means that players are more likely to encounter big hitters earlier in the Grand Slams. But with Sinner knocking him out at Roland Garros and Alcaraz sending him packing at Wimbledon.

Now dropping to 16th in the ATP world rankings, it does feel like Rublev is at a crunch point in his career. He is here in Mexico to close the gap on the players above him in the world currently.

Rublev has reached the quarter finals in all four Grand Slams during his career, including four last eight appearances at the US Open and hard courts always seem to bring about the very best of him.

As top seed, Rublev will get plenty of draw protection here, but he will have a target on his back as the man to beat. He will be the firm favourite to lift his second trophy of the season at 5/2 to lift the Los Cabos Open trophy with Mr Play.

Spaniard Alexander Davidovich Fokina has developed hugely in 2025 and his performances across all surfaces have been very solid.

Taylor Fritz had too much for him at Wimbledon, but he showed some decent glimpses on the grass, and he will want to carry that form onto the hard courts over the American swing.

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He will benefit from being the second seed, so should avoid Rublev at the top half of the draw but he does have some banana skins to avoid on his side.

Davidovich Fokina has never lifted an ATP Tour level title, but he could be worth a look here at 7/1 to win the Los Cabos Open with Betway.

A player that could be a touch overlooked in this draw is Denis Shapovalov, with the Canadian really struggling for consistency over the past couple of seasons.

Finding any sort of groove will be the key objective here for Shapovalov, who remains somewhat of an unfulfilled potential on the ATP Tour, but he has a game that could rattle anybody on his day.

He enjoyed his best Grand Slam showing at the US Open back in 2020 and he will want to find form on the hard courts again five years on, with this event potentially significant.

Shapovalov will be seeded third here, so should get a couple of games to get into his stride and if he strikes the ball well, he is a contender for this title in Mexico.

Denis Shapovalov looks well placed to challenge for glory here in Mexico and he is 5/1 to lift the trophy with BetMGM.

FIRST’s top tip for the ATP Los Cabos Open

Arresting the slide on the ATP Tour is always tough to do and Andrey Rublev is here in Mexico to fight his way back into form.

He picked up the Qatar Open title impressively earlier in the campaign and will be looking for a repeat performance here in Mexico.

It is far from a foregone conclusion, but Andrey Rublev looks well placed to lift the Los Cabos Open title for the first time.

Pick: Andrey Rublev to win ATP Los Cabos Open (outright) – 5/2 with Mr Play

ATP Los Cabos Open - Extra tips

Frenchman Quentin Halys has endured a sticky few weeks on the ATP Tour, bombing out early on the grass at both Eastbourne and Wimbledon but he is operating from a career high ranking of 46.

That is representative of how well he has played at times this term and he will benefit from being the fourth seed here in the Mexican sunshine.

Hard courts should suit his style of play, as he looks to take time away from his opponents at every opportunity and nobody will fancy playing him.

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Quentin Halys has enjoyed his best season on the ATP Tour, and he could be one to keep an eye on to win the 2025 Los Cabos Open at 14/1 with ZetBet.

Events such as this are always very open affairs, as the draw looks to adapt to the hard courts from the grass and there are some strong players on the periphery that could go all the way in Mexico.

German Daniel Altmaier and Australian Aleksandar Vukic are enjoying their strongest seasons on the tour, and both will believe they have a decent chance here at Los Cabos.

Going all the way and winning here in Mexico would be a huge scalp for both men but they both look to represent great value outside bets at 33/1 and 50/1 respectively with Vegasland.

Pick: Quentin Halys to win Los Cabos Open - 14/1 Zetbet
Pick: Daniel Altmaier to win Los Cabos Open - 33/1 Zetbet
Pick: Aleksandar Vukic to win Los Cabos Open - 50/1 Zetbet

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Odds correct at the time of writing.