British & Irish Lions vs Australia: First Test tips, predictions, team news and past record

The first of three test matches between the British & Irish Lions and Australia kicks off at Brisbane’s Lang Park on Saturday 19 July.

The Lions have only won one of their last six tours, so can they right those wrongs with a strong showing first up against the Wallabies?

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British & Irish Lions state of play

To suggest that this Lions tour has gotten off to a challenging start would be something of an understatement.

Zander Fagerson, Tomos Williams, Elliot Daly, Garry Ringrose and Blair Kinghorn have all suffered injuries that will impact their involvement in the series, while Luke Cowan-Dickie was stretchered off in the Lions’ final warm-up game on Saturday.

All of which rather undermines Andy Farrell’s hopes of masterminding only a second Lions series win since 1997.

Australia state of play

Typically, the British & Irish Lions take on opponents rising the crest of the wave, but that’s not an accusation that can be levelled at this Australia side.

They currently sit eighth in the world rankings – behind three of the nations that make up the Lions – while Joe Schmidt’s W7 L7 record as head coach is indicative of a team lacking in consistency. 

In the Wallabies’ sole warm-up game, they snuck past Fiji 21-18.

Key talking point: Can the Aussies compete?

Listen hard and you’ll hear the whispers: many in and around the Lions camp think they can win this series 3-0.

But Australian sportsmen and women have a habit of coming up with the goods on the big stage – particularly in front of their rowdy home fans.

But has Schmidt got the talent at his disposal to trouble the Lions?

FIRST's top tip for British & Irish Lions vs Australia 

British & Irish Lions -8.5 point handicap (9/10, Betway)

Australia will come out of the blocks hard in this first test, but their lack of recent competitive action – one meaningful international in 2025 – suggests that they could come into the game undercooked.

The Lions may have lost to Argentina earlier in their itinerary, but they have improved in warm-up matches since. 

Plus, there’s a real flow and togetherness about their attacking play. That is going to be key to clearing this -8.5 point handicap, which is the equivalent of two scoring plays.

When the Aussies toured the UK and Ireland in November 2024, they lost to the Irish and the Scots and nicked a five-point win against the English. Here, they will face the best players of those three sides combined… that reveals the size of the Wallabies’ task.

Man for man, the Lions are a better outfit than Australia, so despite being on away soil in front of what will surely be a red-hot atmosphere. 

All of the signs point towards the visitors – who are 1/3 with the bookmakers to win by any score, remember – getting up and running with a comfortable margin of victory.

Also worth considering

British & Irish Lions over 27.5 points (41/50, BetMGM)

Even with injuries, Farrell has an exciting array of backs to select from.

He may opt for the Scottish contingent of Duhan van der Merwe, who blazed a hat-trick in the final warm-up win, Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones. But there is also Bundee Aki, the fleet-footed Tommy Freeman and others who need consideration.

Read: What is a Yankee bet and why choose it? 

So the Lions head coach has plenty of try-scoring options from the start and off the bench, which could prove telling against a fragile Australian defence that shipped 20 or more points in each of their four ‘home nations’ games back in November.

The Wallabies also succumbed to 18 points against the Fijians, so it’s not a leap of faith to suggest that the combined might of the Lions backs will run in 28 points or more – particularly as they would love to make a statement of intent in this opening test on Saturday.

Extra tips

British & Irish Lions to win both halves – Yes (11/10, BetMGM)

As the short-priced favourites, the Lions are expected to win this game quite heavily, as per the bookmakers’ odds, so it seems something of a gift to be able to back the them to win both halves at an odds-against price.

The first half could be something of a cagey affair, but the Lions’ perceived superiority should, ultimately, reveal itself once the initial skirmishes have played out.

And the truth is that the tourists have a much deeper talent pool than the Aussies, which will likely manifest itself in the second period as changes are made from both substitutes’ benches. 

British & Irish Lions to win by 11-15 points (5/1, Ladbrokes)

Although winning margin markets are a tough school in high-scoring sports like rugby, there’s at least the carrot of some juicy prices to tuck into.

And there’s logic in backing the Lions with this 11-15 point supremacy, as that reflects a winning margin of two tries – with one, or both, converted.

The bookies make the Lions their nine-point favourites, as per the handicap markets, so backing them to just edge past that with this winning margin wager seems fair at the odds supplied.

Predicted line-ups

Australia: Wright; Potter, Suaalii, Ikitau, Jorgensen; Lolesio, McDermott; Slipper, Porecki, Alaalatoa, Frost, Williams, Gleeson, McReight, Wilson.

British & Irish Lions: Keenan; Freeman, Jones, Tuipulotu, Van der Merwe; Russell, Gibson-Park; Schoeman, Sheehan, Furlong, Itoje, McCarthy, Pollock, Van der Flier, Earl.

Lions’ record vs Australia

Although the Lions have a mixed bag of a record when touring over the past decade, the current crop can take heart from the fact that their predecessors defeated Australia on their last tour ‘down under’ in 2013.

That vintage actually lost one of their warm-up games against the Brumbies, however they bounced back with a narrow 23-21 win in the first test against Australia.

The Wallabies gained revenge in the second with a 16-15 victory, which set up the deciding contest at the ANZ Stadium perfectly.

There, the Lions’ class told in a thumping 41-16 triumph, running in four tries as Leigh Halfpenny also landed a 5/5 penalty conversion rate.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.