British & Irish Lions vs Australia: Second Test tips and predictions as Lions go 2-0 up

Who: Australia vs British & Irish Lions - second Test
Where: Melbourne Cricket Ground
When: Saturday 26 July, 11AM, GMT / 20:00PM local time
How to watch: Sky Sports Action/ Main Event / UHDR

The British & Irish Lions ruthlessly swept aside Australia in the first Test of this three-game series, which means they’re now just one win away from a first tour triumph in over a decade.

Will Lions head coach Andy Farrell be celebrating that on Saturday (kick off 11:00, GMT) at the Melbourne Cricket Ground?

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British & Irish Lions state of play

The Lions’ destiny is in their own hands following a 27-19 victory in the first test in Brisbane.

The tourists dominated the first two-thirds of that contest and arguably could have racked up more than 27 points, but for the dogged defence of the ever-resilient Australians.

Crossing the line for tries were Sione Tuipulotu, Tom Curry and Dan Sheehan, who capped a Lions performance that was somehow both excellent and yet offered some encouragement to the Aussies. 

The visitors conceded 11 penalties, with the home side effectively winning the second half 14-3. 

Australia state of play

Defeat was expected by everyone but the Australians themselves, who remain ever bullish about their chances in this series.

The first test really was a game of two halves, with the Lions dominating the first period but succumbing to a revitalised Australia in the second, for whom substitutes Angus Bell, Carlo Tizzano and Tate McDermott added energy and power.

If the Aussies can replicate their second half performance for the entirety of the second test, they may just match up better to the higher-class Lions.

Key talking point: Will the Aussies improve?

There are now some similarities between this series and the last time the Lions toured Australia in 2013.

The tourists ran out winners in the first game, before the Australians rallied to win the second – they would love a similar pattern to emerge in Melbourne on Saturday.

The likes of Bell, Tizzano and McDermott could be handed starts, while Rob Valetini and Will Skelton could return to bolster the Wallabies’ ranks too.

FIRST's top tip for Australia vs Lions

Pick: Australia +10.5 point handicap (11/10, Betway)

You could argue that the Lions took their foot off the gas in the second half of the first test, which allowed Australia to be so dominant in that passage of play.

But the Wallabies will take the glass half-full approach, reckoning that their second half substitutes and tactical tweaks made a huge difference. 

Read: What is Asian handicap betting and how does it work? 

The return of Valetini, the powerhouse back row forward, and experienced second row Skelton will also aid Australia’s fortunes, so there’s no reason not to suspect that they won’t be more effective in this second test – just as they were back in 2013.

The Lions won the first game by an eight-point margin, so being able to back the Wallabies with a wider handicap – at an odds-against price – seems to be a value proposition.

Also worth considering

Pick: British & Irish Lions under 30.5 points (3/4, Mr.Play)

If we are anticipating an improvement from Australia, particularly in defensive areas, then we have to also assume that the British & Irish Lions’ offensive play will be disrupted accordingly.

They ran in 24 points within the first 50 minutes of the first Test, which will have punters on tenterhooks if the same happens again here. 

Read: Top tips and how to challenge the misconceptions around value betting 

But the Lions will still need to find an extra scoring play to clear their 31-point line in the total points odds for the second test.

We are making assumptions about improvements on Australia’s side, but remember that the Lions scored just three points in the final half-hour of the first game – if the Wallabies are able to replicate that, their opponents’ hopes of racking up a large points tally seem forlorn.

Extra tips

Pick: Either team to win by seven points or fewer (7/4, BetMGM)

Here’s an interesting bet – at an excellent price – that covers all eventualities in a closely-fought contest.

As mentioned, the selection will require improvement from Australia to land, but the evidence of the last 30 minutes of the first Test is that the Wallabies finally got a handle on the Lions’ smooth offensive play.

Indeed, but for the tourists’ early brilliance in Brisbane, this selection might well have landed in that game. Here, should the two sides be closer in proximity, it seems to represent smart value for backers.

Pick: British & Irish Lions to win & under 49.5 points (6/5, Betway)

Even though we have written positively about the Wallabies in this article, one truth remains – the British & Irish Lions are the better of the two teams, as evidenced by the opening 50 minutes in Brisbane last Saturday. 

Farrell won’t stand for the drop-off in standards that came during the second period of the opener, so it’s likely that his Lions will spring out of the traps hard in Melbourne… perhaps running up a lead once more.

We’ve pinned our colours to the mast of an improvement from Australia defensively – the reintroduction of Valetini and Skelton will surely add extra steel at the breakdown, which may well manifest itself in a lower-scoring contest than the first test.

Besides which, the under 49.5 point line landed in Brisbane. So there’s no reason to expect anything different in Melbourne, either.

Predicted line-ups

Australia: Wright; Potter, Suaalii, Ikitau, Jorgensen; Lynagh, McDermott; Bell, Pollard, Alaalatoa, Frost, Skelton, Valetini, McReight, Wilson.

British & Irish Lions: Kinghorn; Freeman, Jones, Tuipulotu, Van der Merwe; Russell, Gibson-Park; Genge, Sheehan, Furlong, Itoje, McCarthy, Curry, Bierne, Conan.

Lions record vs Australia

Technically, the Lions have now won three of their last four games against Australia, dating back to the 2013 tour.

The tourists landed the first Test 23-21 back then, before the Wallabies roared back with a 16-15 triumph in the second.

The Lions then produced a stellar performance in the deciding game to run away with a 41-16 victory, but they will be hoping that the third Test in the 2025 series is a dead rubber, having already taken the series 2-0.

It’s perhaps worth remembering that in their November 2024 tour, Australia beat England and Wales but lost to Scotland and Ireland.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.