England vs New Zealand tips and predictions: Can Itoje and co kick Twickenham hoodoo and beat Kiwis?

England state of play 

Steve Borthwick and this England team seem to be onto a good thing right now. They’re currently on a nine match winning run with notable scalps over France, Australia and a two match tour of Argentina suggesting the future is bright. 

However, this weekend they face New Zealand, a team they haven’t beaten at Twickenham for 13 years. 

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These two teams met three times last year, with the All Blacks claiming victory in all three matches. However, a combined winning margin of 10 points across all three of those tests shows how close these two teams are matched. 

Three years ago, George Ford missed a last minute drop goal to win the game. Therefore, recent head-to-head results suggests Saturday’s showpiece will be a closely fought battle. 

So far this autumn, England have comfortably beaten Australia and Fiji to cement themselves as a top seed for next month’s 2027 World Cup draw. 

However, this match against the All Blacks is the only one this month where they’re playing a team ranked higher than themselves. 

Therefore, it will stand as a big test for Borthwick and this young but talented squad to truly see how they’re progressing. 

New Zealand state of play

Whenever you’re playing the All Blacks, you know you’re in for a difficult match. One of sports’ most famous and successful teams has an aura about them like no other. 

You only have to look at their recent results to see why that’s the case, they’ve lost just three times in their past 18 matches. 

Already this month, they’ve gone to Chicago to beat Ireland 26-13 and maintained their unbeaten record against Scotland with a 25-17 victory at Murrayfield. 

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However, their does seem to be chinks in their armour. A humiliating 43-10 home defeat to South Africa in September followed a 29-23 loss to Argentina in Buenos Aires. 

Even last week, the All Blacks needed a 74th minute try from Damian McKenzie to secure victory. 

There’s no denying their quality, but it’s true that their fear-factor has somewhat weakened in these past few years. 

Key talking point: Can England’s bench power them to victory in the closing stages?  

In recent years, plenty of young and talented players have emerged as England internationals. 

As such, the strength in depth at Borthwick’s disposal is integral to what’s making this team so successful. This week, notable internationals Luke Cowan-Dickie, Ellis Genge and Tom Curry will have to settle for a spot on the substitute bench. 

These England regulars are joined by the young and talented trio of Chandler Cunningham-South, Henry Pollock and Marcus Smith. 

Therefore the England replacements bench has never looked so good. With how close recent matches between these two teams have been, the impact off the bench could be the difference this time for England. 

Certainly, the 6-2 split and the quality of all six of those forwards might be too much power for New Zealand to deal with late in the game. 

FIRST.com’s top tip -  England vs New Zealand

Pick: England to win by a winning margin of 1-7 points - 13/5 (William Hill)

As previously mentioned, England are on a good run of form and can feel confident going into Saturday. 

Previous results between the two teams show how close it is but this time feels different. A stronger squad and options aplenty for Borthwick mean they should have enough quality to finally beat New Zealand at rugby HQ. 

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The fact both teams are priced at 10/11 to win the match shows how finely poised the bookmakers think it is. 

Therefore, there’s real value in backing either team by a small winning margin. With home advantage and the fact the All Blacks aren’t as scary as they once were, we think this England team is good enough to win at the weekend… just. 

Extra tips

Pick: Second half to be the highest scoring half - EVS (William Hill)

Matches between these two sides have generally seen the defences dominate each other. 

Recent form suggests that’s likely to be the same and therefore we think more points are likely to be scored after half time when defenders get tired and fatigued. 

Plus, this market would have paid out in both of New Zealand’s matches this autumn. 

Pick: Will Jordan to score anytime - 11/8 (William HIll)

New Zealand full back Will Jordan is a try machine. He’s scored a remarkable 44 tries in just 52 appearances in the famous all black kit, including one last weekend at Murrayfield. 

Unsurprisingly, he dotted down in this fixture last year too and you wouldn’t be surprised if he managed to do the same this weekend. 

Therefore, any match involving Jordan – the smart bet would be to back him to score a try. England will have to perform very well in defence to keep him quiet. 

Team news

George Ford returns at fly-half for England after missing last weekend’s 38-18 victory over Fiji. 

Elsewhere, Ford’s Sale Sharks teammate Tom Roebuck returns from injury on the wing to replace British & Irish Lion Tommy Freeman. Up front, Alex Coles partners Maro Itoje in the second row with Ollie Chessum on the sidelines. 

New Zealand captain Scott Barrett has been passed fit for the clash at Twickenham after missing last weekend’s win over Scotland with a leg injury. 

However, it’s not all good news for head coach Scott Robertson as winger Caleb Clarke has been ruled out due to concussion. 

Therefore, a reshuffled backline sees Proctor partner Tupaea in the centres whilst Fainga’anuku moves out to the wing.  

England v New Zealand confirmed line-ups

England: Baxter, George, Heyes, Itoje (c), Coles, Pepper, Underhill, Earl; Mitchell, Ford, Feyi-Waboso, Dingwall, Lawrence, Roebuck, Steward 

New Zealand: de Groot, Taylor, Newell, S Barrett (c), Holland, Parker, Savea, Lakai; Roigard, B Barrett, Fainga’anuku, Tupaea, Proctor, Carter, Jordan

Form-guide (all competitions)

England: WWWWWWWWWL

New Zealand: WWWWLWLWWW

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Odds correct at time of writing.