Questionable McLaren decision gives Verstappen Championship chance

Formula 1 Drivers Championship odds

Odds courtesy Ladbrokes

The F1 Drivers’ Championship will go down to the wire, with any of Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri all in with a chance of winning the title. 

Norris remains the favourite, primarily due to his numerical advantage, but Verstappen has the momentum after two main race victories in a row, while Piastri’s sprint race win at the weekend means he is still in with a shout. 

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The weekend started with Brit Lando Norris knowing that he could claim the title in Qatar if he scored two points more than both of his rivals. 

However, things didn’t go to plan. 8 points were up for grabs for winning the sprint race, and former championship leader Oscar Piastri took them home, ahead of Mercedes’ George Russell and Norris. 

While the three finished in the same order they started, Verstappen moved up from sixth on the grid to finish fourth. The result cut Norris’s lead over Piastri to 22 points, while extending his lead over Verstappen to 25. 

In the main race, any actual driving was largely overshadowed by a questionable decision made by McLaren near the beginning of the race. 

A crash between Pierre Gasly and Nico Hulkenberg on lap seven saw the safety car called. Critically, this left 50 laps in a race where Pirelli had imposed a 25-lap maximum run on tyre sets. Pitting straight away would mean drivers would have to pit on lap 32. 

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The vast majority of teams decided that was the best option and called their drivers in. Crucially, this included Red Bull, who called Verstappen in to fit new tyres. 

As soon as the decision was made, Norris questioned the sense of it. And the decision proved to be fatal for the McLarens. 

They explained the decision by saying it would prevent their drivers from making any tactical pit stop decisions later. And, if there had been any other on-track incidents, it may not have proven so costly. 

But, the rest of the race finished without any further safety cars, and Verstappen cruised home to a win. Piastri came in behind him, in second, while Carlos Sainz came third, before Norris in fourth. 

The result means Norris’s lead has been cut to 12 points over Verstappen, with Piastri another four points back, which means any of the three drivers can theoretically still win the Championship. 

The final race of the season takes place in Abu Dhabi this weekend. If Norris, who is now 3/10 for the title, can finish in the top 3, he will take the Championship regardless of where his rivals finish. 

If he beats both of his rivals, regardless of position, he will still take the title. Otherwise, he has to finish fewer than 12 points behind Verstappen and 16 behind Piastri to emerge victorious.

Verstappen is priced at 5/2, and he needs to win, with Norris fourth or lower, or finish 13 points ahead of Norris and now more than 4 points behind Piastri. 

Piastri is the third favourite to take his maiden Championship, at odds of 14/1, as he really needs results to go his way. If Piastri wins in Abu Dhabi, he needs Norris to finish sixth or lower. Alternatively, he needs to finish 17 points ahead of Norris and five points ahead of Verstappen.

Odds on the F1 Drivers’ Championship, correct at the time of writing.

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