Women's Wimbledon final betting tips: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek

Saturday’s women’s final at SW19 marks several firsts. It will be the first-ever meeting between Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek, Anisimova’s debut in a Grand Slam final, and Swiatek’s first appearance in a final at the All England Club.

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A victory for the American would make it four consecutive women’s Wimbledon champions ranked outside the world’s top 10. A win for Swiatek, meanwhile, would secure her sixth major title and leave her just an Australian Open crown away from completing a career Grand Slam.

Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek (Saturday, 2pm)

Swiatek holds a perfect five-from-five record in Grand Slam finals. Four of those titles came on clay, where she had been virtually untouchable until this year. But for the first time, she has brought that same aura to Wimbledon, looking every bit a finalist from the opening round.

The Pole had never gone beyond the quarter-finals at the All England Club, nor had she reached a grasscourt final before this summer. But after finishing runner-up at the Bad Homburg Open last month, she now stands as the favourite to go one better on the stage that matters most.

Anisimova was also a runner-up in one of her warm-up events at Queen’s Club. The semi-final against Aryna Sabalenka suited her well, given their head-to-head history and comparative grasscourt stats. But overcoming the rock-solid Swiatek in her maiden Grand Slam final is arguably a greater challenge.

FIRST’s top tip for Anisimova vs Swiatek

Having had her serve broken just six times all tournament, it’s hard to see Swiatek letting this one slip. She’s also won over 48 per cent of her return games, underlining how frequently she’s likely to put Anisimova under pressure.

With her big-match experience and all-round dominance, Swiatek can be expected to come through with a relatively comfortable victory.

Pick: Iga Swiatek -3.5 game handicap (22/25 with BetMGM).

Extra tips

Swiatek has generated plenty of free points off her first serve during this grasscourt swing, hitting nearly an ace every other game on the surface this year.

Anisimova’s first serve has also been a key weapon over the past fortnight, averaging 0.38 aces per game - a figure closely matching Swiatek’s output at SW19.

There were eight aces in the 23-year-old’s encounter with Sabalenka. She fired in six herself against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, while her last 16 contest with Linda Noskova featured 17 aces.

Pick: Over 6.5 aces (22/25 with BetMGM).

Anisimova’s second serve has been one of the few vulnerabilities in her game of late, but Swiatek hasn’t been flawless in that department either.

The eighth seed’s double fault count has stayed within three of her opponent in every match on her way to the final. She particularly struggled early on against Clara Tauson, hitting five double faults in the opening set alone.

Even in her swift semi-final win over Belinda Bencic on Thursday, Swiatek recorded more double faults than the Swiss.

Pick: Iga Swiatek +3.5 most double faults handicap (22/25 with BetMGM).

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