Canadian election odds: Liberals are clear favourites to win

Trudeau’s rising unpopularity had seen the Liberal Party lose considerable favour with the public and Carney and his party had been all but written off. 

But, with Trump’s continued call to make Canada the 51st state, and the still ongoing trade war with their North American neighbours, Canadians have seemingly rallied behind the former governor of the Bank of England. 

According to the most recent odds, the Liberal party is now 2/9 favourites to win the election and is priced at 8/11 to win a majority. 

Such has been the seismic impact of Trump's second term, that Monday’s victor will likely be the candidate with the best plan to deal with Donald J. Trump. 

The Liberal party is often referred to as Canada’s natural governing party, having ruled for 70 of 100 years of the 20th Century. The country’s oldest political party, however, endured an increasingly poor public perception during the last decade. 

Under Trudeau, the Liberals saw their lead slip with some recent polls putting the Conservatives as many as 27 points ahead. Trudeau blamed in-fighting for his resignation, but replacing him was seen as the only likely path to a Liberal victory. 

In January, Trudeau declared he would stand down as soon as a replacement was found. In March, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England was appointed leader of the party and Canada’s latest Prime Minister.

Carney has emerged as the anti-Trump Prime Minister, railing against calls to make Canada the 51st State. His economic experience also stands him in good stead to help fight the cost of living and other financial crises faced by voters. 

Seven million votes have already been cast, in the largest ever vote and we are likely to hear results late Monday night or early on Tuesday, at least regarding the victorious party. 

Currently, Ladbrokes are offering the following odds on which party will win:

However, the victorious party is only part of the story. Currently, the Liberals hold a minority government. In 2019, Trudeau’s party held on by the skin of their teeth. They lost the popular vote to the Conservatives and it was the first time since 1867 that the winning party received less than 35% of the total vote. 

Having lost 20 seats, the Liberals were forced to run a minority government with 157 seats. Trudeau called another election two years later, but could only increase this to 160 seats. 

According to bookmakers, though, they are likely to win the 2025 election and form a majority government, with odds from Ladbrokes as follows:

 In terms of the popular vote, the bookmakers believe that Carney’s party should redress the balance from the previous election, with odds on the popular vote winner being: