How Lewis Hamilton can overturn a 12-point deficit to Charles Leclerc

Lewis Hamilton sent shockwaves through the sporting world in February 2024, as the seven-time Formula One driver’s champion revealed that he would depart Mercedes in 2025 and join long-time rivals, Ferrari.

Now six races into his tenure with Scuderia Ferrari, the 40-year-old sits 12 points adrift of team-mate Charles Leclerc. 

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Hamilton is yet to finish above the Monegasque driver in a traditional race this year, having fallen short of Leclerc on five occasions. Both drivers were disqualified from the Chinese Grand Prix for regulatory infringements - but Leclerc again outshone his compatriot despite a broken front wing. 

Qualifying presents a similar tale. In six Grand Prix qualifying sessions, Leclerc has come out on top five times. The pair are neck-and-neck when weighing up sprint qualifying outings - at one a piece. 

Sprint races have proven significantly more fruitful for the sport’s record race winner. In China, Hamilton notched eight crucial points by finishing over six seconds clear of second-placed Oscar Piastri. At the beginning of this month, he took third place in a tightly-fought Miami battle.

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Leclerc has not yet attained a position greater than fifth in a sprint race in 2025.

With all of these facts in mind - and four sprints remaining - the question beckons: can Hamilton salvage this decidedly disappointing start to his Ferrari career and end the year ahead of Leclerc?

According to most bookmakers, the odds are not in his favour. 

Sky Bet has pinned Leclerc (1/12) to beat Hamilton (6/1) across the rest of the campaign. A similar stance has been taken by Betfair, where Charles Leclerc stands at a strong 1/18 to fend off Formula One’s all-time record pole-sitter, who is priced at 13/2.

Paddy Power toes the line ahead of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix – as Hamilton’s odds (6/1) to finish 2025 above the opposite side of the Ferrari garage are crushed by Leclerc’s unwavering post as front-runner (1/14).

According to reports compiled by F1.com, Hamilton’s most prominent issues stem from braking and corner entry. The SF-25 (Ferrari’s 2025 car) does not align with his preferences in slower areas of the track - culminating in poor all-round speed.

Leclerc, on the other hand, has collaborated with Ferrari engineers for numerous years. This deep-rooted understanding of the car provides an undeniable advantage over any team-mate – even a record-equalling driver’s champion. 

Although a bet on the experienced Stevenage native appears feckless at this point of the 2025 season, all is not lost.

Ferrari anticipates an “extreme” upgrade in June. It is expected that this alteration will allow the team to run their car at a lower height without risking disqualification - an infraction that saw Hamilton removed from the Chinese Grand Prix final standings.

It was in Shanghai that Hamilton enjoyed his most impressive outing with Ferrari to date, achieving a comfortable victory during the sprint race. 

If sources close to ‘The Prancing Horse’ are to be believed and the car will soon operate in his favour, this could mark a shift in the Englishman’s fortunes. 

For bettors, this revamped setup may herald Hamilton as a solid choice in his season-long dogfight with Charles Leclerc.