Joe Joyce vs Filip Hrgovic betting tips: Heavyweights reignite 12-year-old rivalry

Ready to unlock your boxing betting strategy? Two former No.1 contenders meet in a crucial clash where a win will reignite one’s career and a loss could mean curtains for the other.

British boxer Joe ‘The Juggernaut’ Joyce was initially due to fight fellow Londoner Dillian Whyte until he withdrew due to a hand injury.

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You could argue that his replacement, Filip ‘El Animal’ Hrgovic, is a harder opponent, however, Joyce will be feeling confident because he already holds a win over his Croatian rival, way back in 2013, over 12 years ago now.

The heavyweights locked horns in the World Series Boxing tournament at the York Hall in London, which Joyce edged on a split decision.

Back then, Joyce had a little bit of head movement as an amateur, but only in the early rounds and was still very hittable. His work rate was just as good in those early days, relentlessly punching his opponents into exhaustion.

The first rounds were close, but Joyce’s pace and persistence took over in the second half of the five-round fight as he ran Hrgovic ragged. Despite being so tall and athletic, Hrgovic often tires in fights.

He not only fatigues in the later rounds, which is completely understandable, but he even wears out in the second half of the three-minute rounds. He starts the stanza brightly, throwing crisp, straight shots, and then his output diminishes gradually over the duration of the round.

This also happened against Daniel Dubois, perhaps due to his cuts, but he was looking extremely exhausted as early as rounds five and six. 

He also looked spent against Zhilei Zhang and Demsey McKean, although he was able to grind it out to the final 12th round in both those bouts, winning by TKO against McKean and on points against Zhang.

Joyce, on the other hand, is well known for his capacious engine, so even though Hrgovic is quite clearly the bookies favourite, there are some very interesting variables to consider when picking a winner in this rematch. 

Tale of the tape: Joe Joyce vs Filip Hrgovic

 Joe Joyce: It’s make or break for ‘The Juggernaut’

Joyce has lost three of his last four fights, but he still has an unwavering ambition to become a world champion.

After beating the likes of Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker, Joyce reached WBO #1 and held the WBO interim world heavyweight title, while he patiently awaited his shot at the champion, Oleksandr Usyk.

However, consecutive knockout defeats to Chinese powerhouse, Zhilei Zhang, in 2023 saw all that hard work come crashing down. Not only did he concede his pole position in the world rankings, he also saw his invincibility shattered into pieces.

Joyce is aptly named ‘The Juggernaut’ for his ability to walk through any adversity to crash through his victims, but he has now been knocked out twice and dropped by Derek Chisora in his last fight, so his armour has been well and truly penetrated and weakened.

He spent his entire boxing career taking shots to the head and it appears to have finally taken its toll on the durable fighter. There’s no shame in falling under the heavy hands of ‘Big Bang’ Zhang, but getting dropped by Chisora shows significant signs of decline.

Time and form are both against him, but the 39-year-old knows you are only ever one win away from a big fight. With world title dreams still at the forefront of his mind, despite dropping out of the world rankings, he will give it his all against WBA and IBF #6 Hrgovic to get back on top once again.

Filip Hrgovic: Will it be repeat or revenge for the ‘Animal’?

Filip Hrgovic was the IBF #1 for many months until Daniel Dubois ripped that ranking away from him in June last year.

The 32-year-old Croatian must be reeling, knowing that his conqueror went on to become the IBF world heavyweight champion and that it could have been him instead.

He was landing so many one-twos and right crosses on Dubois during their fight, his backhand right just couldn’t miss, constantly rebounding off Dubois’ dome, but cuts above both eyes saw the ringside doctor step in and stop the fight in the eighth round.

Hrgovic was tiring under the constant pressure at that point anyway, which he so often does in fights. Despite being of athletic build, he doesn’t seem to possess a large engine, which is something Joyce has in abundance.

But what he does boast is a long reach complemented with considerable speed and incredible accuracy. His stiff one-twos straight down the pipe is his signature move and he has even stopped opponents with that short combination alone.

Against Joyce, these one-twos could be the successful punches he needs to do some damage while keeping ‘The Juggernaut’ at bay at the same time. 

Allowing Joyce to come in close will be a bad move, the Croatian’s best play will be to keep the slugger at arm’s length if he can, but that’s easier said than done.

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Joe Joyce vs Filip Hrgovic: The key factors 

Joyce has that big engine that he so heavily relies on, punching non-stop until his opponents are ground down. Against Hrgovic, that’s his key to victory – to constantly stalk and walk down his man until he crumbles under the pressure.

The problem with that game plan, however, will be his opponent’s precision and speed. In those early rounds, Hrgovic will be able to pepper the Brit with those sharp, swift, pinpoint jabs, one-twos, and right crosses, all of which will inevitably find the static target repeatedly.

In the first fight with Zhang, the puncher from Putney was unable to continue after his right eye closed shut, so this is a potential outcome in this bout.

If Hrgovic can land those big backhands and cause enough damage, he will have a strong chance of stopping Joyce, or it will award an early lead on the cards to carry him to a points victory, with the shorter 10 rounds distance working in his favour.

However, Joyce will become stronger with each passing round and there will be a lot of pressure to soak up, if it goes the distance. The first of the fight will very likely belong to Hrgovic, with the second half favouring the energetic Joyce.

FIRST’s top tip for Joyce vs Hrgovic 

Filip Hrgovic to use his attributes in the early stages to get ahead on the scorecards and withstand some late pressure from Joyce to win on points.

Pick: Hrgovic to beat Joyce on points (12/5 Ladbrokes)

Extra tips 

For Joe Joyce to drain Hrgovic with his relentless work rate and win by stoppage is currently 5/1 at Ladbrokes.

Odds correct at the time of writing.