The Ashes 2025 First Test tips and predictions: England target early series lead over injury-hit Australia

The Ashes: State of play

After years of anticipation, months of speculation and recent weeks of baiting ‘the Poms’ from sections of the Australian media, the 2025/26 Ashes series finally gets underway at 10:30am local time on Friday in Perth, the early hours in the UK!

England arrived talking a good game and taking umbrage to anyone who questioned the strength of their preparation - only one warm-up game against their reserves, England Lions - and now must go about trying to wrestle the urn out of Australian hands for the first time since 2015.

Love cricket? Find the best cricket betting sites and bet with the best welcome bonuses today.

Winning this Ashes would not only end 10 years of hurt for England, but would also signal a shift in fortunes for an away side in this historic series. The Three Lions’ 3-1 victory in Australia in 2010/11 is the only time from 2002/03 onwards that either side has returned home with a series victory!

The 2025 Ashes series odds

That gives the hosts plenty of confidence going into this series and no-one can argue with their home Ashes record over the last three five-game contests which sees them lead England 13 Tests to zero!

An Ashes series in Australia only happens every four years. It’s time.

First Test - Perth: Key talking points

The build up to this first Test has been dominated by the fitness of key bowlers for both sides and it is England who have the advantage of a fully-fit arsenal of quicks to select from.

Speedster Mark Wood, who missed the entire home series against India in the summer as part of his rehabilitation from knee ligament damage, got through another injury scare last week and is raring to go. He is expected to team-up with Jofra Archer who himself didn’t play a Test from March 2021 to June 2025.

There is also good news on England skipper Ben Stokes who missed their most recent Test with a torn muscle in his shoulder but was the pick of his side’s bowlers in their warm-up fixture, taking 6/50 in the first innings.

EXPLAINED: How to bet on cricket - tips, strategies and what to avoid

Australia do not have the luxury of their captain, bowler Pat Cummins, who was ruled out of this opener a fortnight ago as his return to full fitness following a bone stress in his lower back has taken longer than hoped.

He is joined on the sidelines by the 295 Test wickets of Josh Hazlewood who picked up a hamstring injury in last week’s Sheffield Shield round.

The lack of Cummins and Hazlewood gives England a real chance to get a win in Perth, but the travelling fans should be warned, as the bowling pair are set to return to Australia’s XI for the second Test in Brisbane.

FIRST.com’s top tip - First Test

Steve Smith to be Australia's 1st innings top batter - 3/1 with Highbet

He may be 36 years old and will no doubt be on the receiving end of plenty of ‘sandpaper’ references from the Barmy Army over the next two months, but Steve Smith remains one of if not the greatest Test batter of his generation.

Averaging 56.02 with 36 centuries and 43 scores of 50+ from his 212 Test innings, Smith has made 12 of those tons in Ashes contests, the most recent in an Australia victory at Lord’s in 2023.

Stepping up as interim skipper in Cummins’ absence, England will hope that the added burden will diminish his run-scoring. 

But they shouldn’t hold out much hope as he averages 112.28 as captain against England and comes into the series following scores of 56 not-out, 57 and 118 in his three Sheffield Shield innings this season.

First Test - Perth: Things to consider

Everybody knows that Australia’s climate puts England’s to shame but that ramps up to a whole new level in Perth where it’s always hot and flies cause a nuisance to all, buzzing around your face!

The conditions couldn’t be any different to the first cold-snap of the winter back home in England. 

Nonetheless, the tourists should find the temperature not too gruelling during this opening Test with highs of 26 degrees on day one but forecast to not get above 22 degrees across days two to five.

But consistent hot weather equals a solid and dry ground, something which could cause problems over the course of a five-day Test for any player, particularly pace bowlers, not used to the surface.

England’s batters will have to contend with quicker pitches and more bounce than they usually encounter at home - this could be something which benefits someone like opener Zak Crawley. 

He was the second highest run-scorer in the 2023 Ashes, but has historically been the Achilles heel for the all-conquering Joe Root who is still yet to make a Test century in Australia after 27 attempts, or 42 innings if you include white-ball internationals!

Extra tips

Ollie Pope to score a fifty in the match - 7/5 (Highbet)

Ahead of this tour, England took away the vice-captaincy from Pope which was seen as a vote of no-confidence in his insecure place at number three in the batting order.

However, he made scores of 100 & 90 in the warm-up game, averages 41.60 at first-drop and is famous for front-loading his runs, as returns of 106, 171 and 77 prove from his first innings in England’s last three series.

Marnus Labuschagne to score a fifty in the match - 47/50 (Highbet)

Another top order player with a point to prove is Australia’s cheeky-chappy Labuschagne. Dropped from the side on their recent tour of the Caribbean, he has been churning out runs in domestic cricket with five hundreds and a half-century across his 10 innings from September onwards.

Scott Boland to be top bowler in the match - 5/1 (Highbet)

With Cummins and Hazlewood absent, Scott Boland will share the new ball with Mitchell Starc. 

The former took 6/7 in the second innings on his Test debut, against England in 2021, and has a remarkable home record with 49 wickets from nine Tests including match figures of 10/76 against India in January.

Responsible gambling with FIRST.com 

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Odds correct at the time of writing.