Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Newcastle tips and predictions: Goals on the menu in intriguing encounter

Bayer 04 Leverkusen state of play

Moods around the Bayer 04 Leverkusen dressing room must be in a good place right now after they sent rivals Borussia Dortmund out of the DFB Pokal. The same lot had just beaten them 2-1 in the league only three days earlier. Now, the best UK betting sites price Leverkusen as second favourites behind Bayern at 4/1 to go the distance.

Manager Kasper Hjulmand only made three changes to the first XI, with Kofane, Terrier, and Quansah drafted in for Bade, Tilman, and Schick. The match hinged on a single strike in the 34th minute from 20-year-old Ibrahim Maza. The Algerian wonderkid has held his place lately and got the full 90 in their last Champions League win against Man City, where he chipped in with an assist.

Bayer Leverkusen had a far from enjoyable start in Europe after two draws on the bounce and a 2-7 hiding at home to PSG. The picture looks far brighter now for the Germans. They edged Benfica 1-0 on the road and then pulled off a 2-0 surprise in England against Man City. Goalkeeper Mark Flekken claimed Player of the Match after making a total of nine saves. 

As things stand, Hjulmand’s men sit bang in the middle of the play-off pack, two points clear of Royal Union SG in 25th and the same gap beneath Sporting Lisbon in 8th. The top Champions League betting sites have them up at 1/20 to hold that spot, with a straight path into the play-offs at 10/1. Either way, Leverkusen need points to land either outcome, and the day Newcastle pitch up in Germany might be the moment to get that moving. 

Newcastle United state of play

Newcastle United head into Champions League Matchday 6 with nine points already banked from wins over Royal Union SG, Benfica, and Athletic Bilbao. They walked away from all three with a clean sheet. All four goals conceded in the competition came in the defeats to Barcelona and Marseille. Their xG Against per match sits at about 1.59.

➡️ Learn more about how xG can be used to identify good bets online.

Domestically, the Magpies had two points hauled away from them on Tuesday night after Cristian Romero’s 95th-minute overhead finish. Eddie Howe spoke to Sky Sports after full-time and said, “I don't think it was us at our best today, but we battled into a position we wanted with a few minutes left, and we just couldn't defend that corner at the end.” 

Even if the way it ended gives the draw a sour edge, this now counts as Newcastle’s third outing without a loss since those back-to-back setbacks against West Ham and Brentford in early November. The table has them in 11th on 19 points, only three off a European place and eight clear of the relegation scrap.

On the pitch, Newcastle have been handling the ball really well. Only four from their 14 Premier League fixtures finished under the 50% possession mark, with three of them coming against Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. The stronger note is how often they turn that control into end product. They found a route to goal in each of their last 15 matches across all competitions.

➡️ Read more: Club Brugge vs Arsenal tips and predictions.

Before their away trip at Leverkusen, Newcastle meet Burnley in a fixture that UK football betting sites give the visitors little joy. The 1X2 market has Newcastle at 3/10, which feels a touch short to me given Eddie Howe might fancy resting a few faces. Burnley, by contrast, carry no cup or European commitments on their plate.

Key talking point: Guimarães sets the rhythm as Gordon waits on another shot at the starting XI

Bruno Guimarães has hit a fine vein of form this season. The chat around him usually centres on how much stability he brings to the wider setup. The Brazilian maestro started on the bench against Spurs, came on at the break, and stuck the opener in the 71st minute. A post-match bust-up with Cristian Romero and company added a bit of spice to the evening, then he used his official Instagram account to call for a stronger mentality so moments of that sort stay out of the picture. He pointed towards the Burnley match as the chance to put things right.

➡️ See our latest Premier League betting predictions. 

Teammate Anthony Gordon has seen stronger spells and looks to have slipped down the pecking order lately. Before the penalty against Tottenham, he neither scored nor set one up in any of his last 20 Premier League appearances. The Champions League form sheet tells a far more encouraging story. He and Harvey Barnes are joint top scorers for the Magpies with four each. I would say the Leverkusen match is where Eddie Howe gives the ex-Toffee winger another shot from kick-off, and hopefully Guimarães’ influence can help him find his feet again.

Read more: Tottenham vs SK Slavia Prague predictions

FIRST.com’s top tip - Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Newcastle United

Pick: Both Teams to Score (Yes) – 8/13 – (Coral)

Barring the 3-0 defeat against Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich, Leverkusen have managed to score in every one of their last 25 matches in all competitions. Newcastle are dealing with a stretched back line and thus, very little room to rotate. Fatigue can easily turn into a factor with 6 matches in 18 days.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have looked sharp in front of goal, scoring an average of 1.94 per match across their last 50 outings in all competitions. Nick Woltemade is in fine scoring form - and showed against Tottenham that he can thread an assist as well - and Gordon will surely look to make a statement if given the chance.

Pick: Newcastle to win – 6/4 – (Unibet)

Bookies do not seem to have a clear favourite for this one, and there is something in me leaning slightly toward the draw. Even so, I am putting my money on Newcastle taking charge in the middle of the park. Whenever they dictated possession, the Magpies walked out with a result. Leverkusen could allow that pattern to play out, just as they have in four of their five Champions League appearances. For a safer angle, you can look toward a Newcastle Draw No Bet at 4/5.

Team news

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are without Argentine midfield duo Ezequiel Fernández and Exequiel Palacios, both expected to be out until the end of the year. Ex-Real Madrid man Lucas Vázquez is also on the injury list and will not feature. 22-year-old Arthur was taken off at half time in the Heidenheim match and has not played since due to a back issue. Word from camp suggests he could return for this weekend’s Bundesliga clash against Augsburg.

For Newcastle, Nick Pope was not in the squad against Everton and Tottenham due to a knock, and Ramsdale looks set to keep the gloves at least through most of December. The back line is where the bigger issues lie. Kieran Trippier and Sven Botman are both expected to miss out. Emil Krafth reported a knee concern after international duty, though Howe explained it is not too serious. Whether he is fit to start remains unclear. Yoane Wissa is edging closer to a return, as is fellow striker William Osula.

Bayer Leverkusen v Newcastle United expected line-ups

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Flekken; Belocian, Bade, Quansah; Grimaldo, Maza, Garcia, Poku; Kofane, Tillman; Schick (3-4-2-1).

Newcastle: Ramsdale; Hall, Thiaw, Burn, Livramento; Guimarães, Tonali, Joelinton; Barnes, Woltemade, Gordon (4-3-3).

Form guide 

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WLWWWWLWWL

Newcastle: DWLWLWLWWW

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