Carabao Cup final tips and predictions: Salah no show as Newcastle try to end trophy drought against Liverpool

Liverpool state of play 

The runaway Premier League leaders come into this off the back of a gruelling 120 minutes at Anfield on Tuesday night, which ended in a painful penalty shoot-out defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League last 16 second-leg. 

After picking up an impressive backs-to-the-wall 1-0 win in Paris the week before, Arne Slot’s men were expected to progress, but they fell short on home turf and were sent packing when Darwin Nunez and Curtis Jones failed to convert their penalties. 

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The Reds have been enjoying a brilliant campaign so far and are 15 points clear in the league. 

But the Champions League exit coupled with last month’s shock FA Cup defeat to Plymouth will have hurt Slot and means he’ll be desperate to claim his first Liverpool trophy at Wembley Stadium.

Newcastle state of play 

Newcastle are nothing if not unpredictable. Eddie Howe’s side have been hit-or-miss of late with five wins and five defeats from their last 10 fixtures. 

That includes a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield just two-and-a-half weeks ago, in a match where the visitors were outclassed. 

However, victories over the likes of Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea this season show that the Magpies can turn up in the big games. 

A 1-0 win at West Ham on Monday, with a goal from midfielder Bruno Guimaraes, has set Newcastle up nicely for Sunday. As the Magpies look to end a trophy drought which stretches all the way back to 1969, when they won the Europa League’s predecessor, the Fairs Cup. 

Key talking point: Can Arne Slot’s men bounce back from Champions League heartbreak? 

To say the result at Anfield on Tuesday was devastating for Liverpool is an understatement. Genuine hopes of a seventh Champions League title were harboured by a team that has all but sewn up the Premier League title. 

It won’t be easy to bounce back against a strong Newcastle team but the Reds rightly remain favourites. 

They are the holders after beating Chelsea a year ago, while Newcastle, in their only other final this century, lost the 2023 showpiece to Manchester United.

However, we expect this to be a low-scoring affair - most cup finals are. Both teams have scored in only three of the last nine Carabao Cup finals, and none of the last four. 

If you look at Carabao Cup and FA Cup finals from 2016 onwards, excluding anomalies when minnows Watford and Southampton took part, there’s been just 29 goals in 16 matches - 1.81 per game. It’s just 1.5 looking at Carabao Cup finals only. 

Another talking point is the form of Mohamed Salah, who is scoring and assisting for fun in the Premier League. 

However, in seven major cup finals for Liverpool, Salah has zero goals from open play. His only strike for the Reds in these showpiece events was a penalty awarded in dubious circumstances against Tottenham in the 2019 Champions League final. 

Add that to his quiet performances with no goals in the two fixtures against PSG, and it’s fair to question his big-game credentials.

FIRST’s top tip for the Carabao Cup final 

Both teams to score: No (5/4 with Spreadex) 

As mentioned, both teams rarely score in recent cup finals and this bet has landed in six of Liverpool’s last 10 games (and four of Newcastle’s last seven).

Extra tips 

Total goals under 2.5 (5/4 with 10BET)

Liverpool should ultimately win this, but there’s not much value in backing them at odds as short as 4/6 with some bookies. Instead, we’re focusing on the lack of expected goals again. Under 1.5 at 19/5 is also tempting.

Mohamed Salah under 0.5 shots on target (41/20 with the best UK bookies)

There’s little value in backing the Egyptian superstar to score or assist, but with his poor record in finals and the recent blanks against PSG, a punt against him hitting the target at decent odds is worthwhile.

Team news

Liverpool were dealt a blow when Trent Alexander-Arnold went off injured with a knee problem in the defeat to PSG, and Slot indicated he will miss out at Wembley. 

With fellow right-back options Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez also injured, Jarell Quansah will likely start there. 

Ibrahima Konate was also substituted on Tuesday, but Slot claimed it was due to fatigue, not injury. Cody Gakpo is fit again and featured as a sub against PSG.

Newcastle are without star winger Anthony Gordon who is suspended, while left-back Lewis Hall has been ruled out for the rest of the season with injury. 

Sven Botman is also out with a knee problem. However, main striker, Alexander Isak is fit after a recent thigh issue.

Carabao Cup final predicted line-ups

Liverpool: Alisson; Quansah, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Diaz (4-2-3-1)

Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn, Livramento; Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Murphy, Barnes, Isak (4-3-3)

Form guide (all competitions)

Liverpool: WLDWDWWWWL

Newcastle: LWLWWLWLLW

Odds correct at time of writing.