Champions League betting tips: Semi-finals second legs preview

Despite the first legs of the 2024/25 Champions League semi-finals seeing a one-goal win and a draw, bookmakers are clear on who they think will reach the final. 

While the odds have shifted a little, their position has not changed from before the opening games. The final in Munich on May 31 is predicted to be between Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain.

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Having won 1-0 at Arsenal last week, the latter looks the far safer bet of the two. Barcelona led at no point of their 3-3 draw with Inter yet are expected to advance when they must now travel to Italy. 

The first legs showed the difficulty in trying to predict games of this magnitude, but our top tips were successful in both matches. Here’s our preview of the 2024/25 Champions League semi-final second legs.

Inter vs Barcelona betting tips

The final paragraph of our first leg preview said, “this game is unlikely to be a repeat of their last meeting, a 3-3 draw in 2022.” So much for that, eh?

The underlying numbers for the match highlight that some of the goals in Barcelona far outweighed the quality of chance from which they came. The score was 1.4 to 0.8 on expected goals, with Lamine Yamal’s pick of the strikes coming from an opportunity valued at just 0.04 xG. 

While the shot count read 19-7 in Barcelona’s favour, Inter manager Simone Inzaghi will have been pleased by his side having two Opta-defined big chances while only conceding one. 

Across their last four Champions League matches at home, the Serie A side have also allowed their opponents just one golden opportunity in total. It will be near impossible to maintain that against Lamal and his colleagues, but Inzaghi would take them having just one again if he could.

The history of ties that saw a draw in the first leg is almost evenly split since the end of the away goals era. The team which was at home first qualified five times, with the away side going through on seven occasions. 

Read: Inter Milan vs Barcelona tips and predictions

This sample includes several mild mismatches in the round of 16, though. The score for qualifying is 3-1 to the club which had the second leg at home if we look at ties in the quarter-finals onwards. The exception was Real Madrid (against Manchester City last season) and they often are a law unto themselves in this competition. 

With history and Inter’s defensive fortitude at home suggesting they should perhaps be favourites, why are the bookmakers leaning towards Barcelona?

The Italian side’s recent home form has been patchy. They beat lowly Verona 1-0 on Saturday to end a run of three games without a win in front of their own fans. This streak is somewhat deceptive though, as a 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich ensured they reached this stage of the Champions League. While a victory for AC Milan at the San Siro is not an away win in the true sense.

Barca’s record on the road looks formidable. Their only away defeat since November occurred in the previous round at Dortmund (3-1), which didn’t matter in the slightest as they took the first leg 4-0. Considering the risky reputation their high defensive line carries, it’s worth noting they’ve kept five clean sheets in their last nine away matches too. 

This game boils down to whether Inter’s strong defensive home record in Europe will hold firm or if Barcelona’s fearsome attack can overpower it. A combination of the price available for the Serie A side to qualify and Barca conceding an average of four big chances per Champions League away game in 2024/25 makes Inter to qualify the value play. 

Scoreline prediction

Inter 2-1 Barcelona (9/1 with Spreadex)

FIRST’s top tip:

Inter to qualify (6/5 with BetMGM)

Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal betting tips

Paris Saint-Germain will hope history does not come back for a slice of revenge against them in this match.

Away goals were abolished in the Champions League in 2021. Since then, there have been nine knockout ties in which the first leg was won by the away side by a margin of one goal. Seven of them advanced, with the two exceptions being provided by PSG.

Earlier this season they lost 1-0 at home to Liverpool before winning at Anfield by the same scoreline, taking the tie on a penalty shootout. This follows their tie with Barcelona last season, in which a 3-2 home loss was swept away by a stunning 4-1 victory in Spain.

Arsenal need to do to PSG what only they have proved capable of doing to others. The Gunners can take a degree of inspiration from Liverpool’s victory at the Parc des Princes, save for the fact the shot count in that game was 27-2 in PSG’s favour. Mikel Arteta obviously can’t expect his side to qualify for the final if this match is as one-sided.

More heartening for Arsenal than the Reds’ victory is that only two of seven Champions League visitors to PSG have failed to score this season, in Girona and Brest. If they can get ahead on the night, the visitors will back themselves for a clean sheet, even if their last five games on the road in this competition have lacked one. 

That last fact has been a theme of their campaign. For a team with an excellent record for goals against, Arsenal do not deliver as many shut outs as you might assume. They have kept just two clean sheets in 10 away games against the Premier League’s current top 12. 

This issue is likely to be their undoing here. While you can easily see the Gunners scoring, PSG have had at least 20 shots in every home game in the Champions League this season, averaging 25.1 efforts per match. Their attacking potency should carry them to the final.

Scoreline prediction

Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 Arsenal (15/2 with Ladbrokes)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (10/11 with Coral)