Champions League betting tips: Semi-finals first legs preview

For the first time since 2017/18, the Champions League semi-finals are being contested by four clubs from different countries.

Paris Saint-Germain reached this stage last season, while Inter Milan did so (and made the final) the year before. Barcelona are here for the first time since their infamous 2019 defeat to Liverpool, which leaves Arsenal as the team with the longest wait for an appearance in the last four.

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This is their first semi-final since 2009 and the bookmakers do not expect them to advance past PSG. Inter are now the tournament outsiders despite conceding the fewest goals of any team in the competition, including the 24 clubs who played fewer games.

These ties are not easy to call. Here’s a preview of the 2024/25 Champions League semi-final first legs.

Arsenal vs Paris Saint-Germain betting tips

The first of our two fixtures is arguably the most intriguing because we have already seen it play out this season. Arsenal hosted Paris Saint-Germain in matchweek two, winning 2-0. 

Even if we ignore the scoreline, Mikel Arteta will be hoping this game plays out in a similar fashion. 

The Gunners had the only Opta-defined big chance of the contest, which Kai Havertz converted for Arsenal to take the lead. Aided by the game state, they restricted the visitors to shots collectively worth just 0.4 expected goals.

It will be harder for Arsenal to keep PSG in check as they have improved massively since the early stages of the competition. 

After scoring just three goals in their opening five games, Luis Enrique’s attack has woken up. The Parisiens have since beaten three Premier League sides in Manchester City, Liverpool and Aston Villa, scoring 10 goals in five games against them.

There are few offensive challenges tougher than scoring against Arsenal in the Champions League, though, especially in north London. 

Read: Arsenal vs PSG tips and predictions

It’s notable that no away side has scored a European goal at the Emirates stadium in a match which mattered this season (because PSV Eindhoven’s two were academic as they’d lost the first leg 7-1). 

With that record it seems remarkable that the Gunners only have one clean sheet in their last eight home games in the Premier League. They clearly put their game faces on for this competition.

The issue for Arsenal will be how much damage they can do in the other direction. They had just six shots against PSG in their last meeting, for instance. 

While they beat Real Madrid 3-0 in their previous home game in the Champions League, it took Declan Rice scoring the first and second direct free-kick goals of his career. The margin of victory could easily have been far lower if history is anything to go by. 

Goals tend to dry up at this stage of the competition with so much at stake. Four of the six semi-final first legs since away goals were scrapped saw no more than two goals. This includes PSG’s 1-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund last season. 

As much as the visitors have one of the best front lines in world football, another low-scoring first leg looks inevitable. 

It will suit both sides. Arsenal will want to head to Paris on at least level terms, while PSG will be happy with a draw with a home leg to come. A low-goal bet can easily be scuppered if someone scores early, it just feels unlikely here. 

Scoreline prediction

Arsenal 1-1 Paris Saint-Germain (11/2 with Coral)

FIRST’s top tip:

Under 2.5 goals (10/11 with BetMGM)

Barcelona vs Inter Milan betting tips

While they have met far more recently, the relationship between Barcelona and Inter Milan is perhaps best remembered for an infamous Champions League semi-final in 2010.

It was a Jose Mourinho masterclass. His Inter side came from behind to win the first leg 3-1, then held Pep Guardiola’s Barca to a 1-0 scoreline in the Camp Nou despite playing over an hour with 10 men.

If not quite so defensive as in those days, the Inter of 2024/25 have an excellent record for frustrating opponents. They have conceded just twice in their six European away games this season, allowing one each to the Bundesliga pair of Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich.

However, they are without a clean sheet in their last four away matches in all competitions. This run includes conceding twice at Parma, a side not yet safe from relegation in Serie A, so how will Inter cope against a Barcelona team that has only failed to score once at home all season?

Not only that, but Hansi Flick’s side are the top scorers in the Champions League this term, both in home games and overall. 

On their own patch, Barcelona scored at least twice in every game, hitting four against Bayern and Borussia Dortmund. 

While both teams had tough games at the weekend, the La Liga side has an extra day of rest ahead of this game too. Barcelona beat Real Madrid 3-2 to win the Copa del Rey final on Saturday (after extra time), while Inter lost 1-0 at home to Roma the following day. 

Everything suggests Barca should be favourites, which is exactly how the bookmakers see it. However, they look unlikely to keep a clean sheet.

Dortmund might have drawn a blank in Barcelona’s previous home game in this competition, but they contrived to miss three Opta-defined big chances. 

Bayern, Benfica and Atalanta all scored there this season, so it seems reasonable to think Inter can. They scored twice in Munich in the previous round, after all, and while they were not as long odds to win there as they are here, Simone Inzaghi’s side will undoubtedly fancy their chances in Spain.

It therefore makes sense to back goals rather than the result. This game is unlikely to be a repeat of their last meeting, a 3-3 draw in 2022. But there should be more goals than in that remarkable semi-final in 2010.

Scoreline prediction

Barcelona 2-1 Inter (7/1 with Spreadex)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (17/20 with Ladbrokes)

Odds correct at the time of writing.