Palmeiras vs Chelsea: Blues to capitalise on second string Brazilian’s backline

Palmeiras state of play

Part of our four-fold of fancies in our weekly acca, Palmeiras arrive as clear underdogs in this quarter-final having only beaten Al Ahly and Botafogo in the tournament so far. 

Being without three of their starting back four is key to their uphill cause due to injuries and suspensions and having conceded twice to a much weaker Inter Miami side in the group stages, they’ll do well to keep Chelsea out. 

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Chelsea state of play

UEFA Conference League champions Chelsea are in much better shape, winning all but one of their Club World Cup games, a 3-1 loss to Flamengo with ten men the only blemish on their record. 

They did require extra-time to see off Benfica in the round of 16. Nonetheless, with a much more experienced squad and having won eight of their last 10 games in all competitions, they’ll be confident of progressing and eyeing a spot in the final with Manchester City and Inter eliminated on their side of the draw. 

Key talking point: Case for the makeshift defence – can they hold Chelsea off?

With a gulf in quality already between the two squads, missing so many first-choice defenders makes a difficult tie look near impossible to win for Palmeiras. 

Having only scored 12 goals in 11 Serie A games this season, Abel Ferreira’s side clearly build their success on solid foundations, some would say its an achievement in itself to make the quarter finals of the competition. Plus, with the personnel decimated, they’re unlikely to be able to rely upon defensive solidity.

Chelsea meanwhile averaged nearly two goals per game in domestic action this season and have brought their shooting boots to America, netting ten goals in just four games in the competition. 

Enzo Maresca was less than impressed with the weather delay to their game against Benfica and will be looking to put this tie to bed early against an inexperienced backline. 

Blues have only failed to get on the scoresheet once in their last 16 matches in all competitions and so will be confident of breaching this Palmeiras rearguard regularly.

FIRST’s top tip for Palmeiras vs Chelsea 

Pick: Chelsea to win – 21/20 – BetMGM 

Short-priced but a highly motivated Chelsea team should have too much for Palmeiras on most days but knowing the Brazilian side are missing key defenders makes this price too good to refuse. 

Maresca’s men know that victory here will see them face either Fluminense or Al Hilal for a place in the final.

Extra tips

Pick: Total goals by Chelsea – Over 1.5 – 57/50 – BetMGM

The Blues can capitalise on the makeshift Palmeiras backline and score two or more as they have done in three of their four games in the Club World Cup.

Pick: Liam Delap to score – 43/20 – BetMGM

Delap’s been given a chance by Nicolas Jackson’s silly red card and will surely start again after netting against ES Tunis. His 12 goals in 37 Premier League matches for Ipswich this season demonstrate his finishing capability and he’ll get plenty of chances. 

Team news

The Brazilians are light at the back with Gustavo Gomez’ late red card and left back Joaquin Piquerez’ booking against Botafogo meaning both are suspended for this game. 

They were already missing Murilo with a thigh injury and so are without three of their first choice back four. They will, however, be boosted by the return of defensive midfielder Anibal Moreno from injury. 

Defensive lynchpin Moises Caicedo, key to their upturn in form last season, will be a big miss in central midfield having picked up a second booking of the tournament against Benfica.

Benoit Badiashile looks set to miss out after limping off injured in that game too and whilst Nicolas Jackson returns from his suspension, Liam Delap is expected to continue through the middle. 

Palmeiras vs Chelsea predicted line-ups

Palmeiras: Weverton; Giay, Micael, Fuchs, Vanderlan; Rios, Moreno; Estevao, Mauricio, Torres; Roque (4-2-3-1)

Chelsea: Sanchez; James, Colwill, Adarabioyo, Cucurella; Lavia, Fernandez; Neto, Palmer, Madueke; Delap (4-2-3-1)

Form guide (all competitions)

Palmeiras: WDWDLWLWWW

Chelsea: WWLWWWWLWW

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Odds correct at the time of writing.