Top of the Props: We need to talk about Kevin, Villa to set the top five trap and Serbian set-piece shots

Kevin De Bruyne over 0.5 shots on target for Manchester City vs Everton – 4/5 – BetMGM

After announcing that he will leave Manchester City when his contract expires at the end of the season, Kevin De Bruyne kickstarted his farewell tour perfectly against Crystal Palace with a goal and an assist. 

His goal came from a trademark free kick and was one of six shots of which two were on target and so he’s clearly keen to further cement his legacy before his departure. 

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Across his last four starts he’s had seven shots on target and with five in his last three games against the Toffees, he has plenty of previous against David Moyes’ men. 

Everton are giving up four shots on target per game under Moyes and five of their last eight opponents at Goodison Park have had at least four. 

City are in poor form but showing signs of life and are in need of points if they’re to secure Champions League qualification. 

Having won on each of their last six trips to Goodison Park, averaging seven shots on target per game in the process, they’ll be confident of victory and De Bruyne is likely to be central to their chances. 

Over 4.5 offsides in Aston Villa vs Newcastle – 10/13 – BetMGM

In what is a key battle in the race for Champions League qualification, everything suggests there should be plenty of offsides at Villa Park on Saturday evening. 

Five of the last six meetings between Aston Villa and Newcastle have had at least five offsides with the most recent affairs seeing six and eight. Villa’s home games this season have featured 4.11 per game with this bet landing in seven of the last 11. 

Unai Emery is famous for a high defensive line and his time in the Midlands has consistently seen his Villa side set an effective offside trap.

Only three Premier League sides are caught offside more often than Newcastle and whilst their away games only average 3.81 offsides, when they visit teams with a high line, it usually results in lots of offsides. 

Their trip to Fulham early on in the season saw seven infringements and this bet would also have landed in visits to Wolves, Everton, Brentford, Manchester United and Southampton as well as last week's game at Leicester. 

The magnitude of the occasion and the head-to-head data make this play appealing. 

Nikola Milenkovic over 0.5 shots for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham – 19/20 – BetMGM

Nikola Milenkovic’s average of 0.84 shots per 90 minutes this season make him one of the most prolific defenders in the Premier League when it comes to efforts at goal. 

Standing at six foot four, the giant Serbian towers over most opposition defenders and tends to be the target for first contact in all dead ball situations. 

On the road he’s been particularly potent with 17 shots in 16 matches, finding the back of the net on three occasions. He also managed a shot in the reverse fixture and so is capable against this Tottenham back line.

Spurs come into this game fatigued from a Thursday night trip to Frankfurt and whilst they’ve only conceded seven set piece goals this season, they have allowed 11 expected goals from such situations and so it’s clearly an area that Forest can attack. 

Only four Premier League sides have had more shots from set plays than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side and when they’re aiming for Milenkovic at every opportunity, it shouldn’t take much for him to have another.  

Odds correct at the time of writing.