Top of the Props: Diaz to star, Postecoglou's high line and Man Utd’s set piece woes

Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley - Luis Diaz to score or assist for Liverpool – 4/5 – BetMGM

Arne Slot’s revolution at Anfield moves on to the FA Cup and one of the key men in his outstanding start has been Luis Diaz. The Colombian winger has 14 goal contributions across all competitions this season and has thrived in the new set-up, already matching his goal tally in the Premier League from last season, despite starting just 13 league games. 

He will be frustrated at having to rotate with Cody Gakpo and with the Dutchman having started midweek against Spurs, Diaz should be set to start in this game.

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Despite their locality adding an extra layer of spice to this fixture, Accrington should be an easy enough opponent for Liverpool and we can expect Slot’s men to rack up the goals. Only one League Two side has conceded more goals than Accrington and with Liverpool having scored 47 goals in just 19 matches in the top division, this really could be any scoreline. 

The last time Liverpool welcomed lower league opposition to Anfield, they beat Shrewsbury 4-1 with 83% possession. Diaz has netted three goals in his last three starts against much tougher opposition, so will be licking his lips at the thought of more. 

Tamworth vs Tottenham – Tamworth over 1.5 offsides – 11/10 – BetMGM

A hallmark of Ange Postecoglou’s time at Spurs has been a super high defensive line, often set up on the halfway line. This aggressive approach means that Tottenham draw an average of 2.7 offsides per game from their opponents this season.

Across their last 10 games in all competitions, their opponents have combined for 29 offsides with eight of those teams having at least two. 

Tamworth data is hard to come by but they average two offsides per game in the National League and with them likely to go direct in possession, their strikers can be expected to be flagged before they can get back onside. 

Premier League sides have started to adapt to Tottenham’s high line and expose it, however, in cup games, teams seem to be more susceptible to it. Their 10 games in the EFL Cup and Europa League have produced an average of 3.7 offsides from their opponents per game and hopefully, Tamworth can add to that tally. 

Arsenal vs Manchester United – Gabriel Magalhaes to have over 0.5 shots on target – 49/20 – BetMGM

Arsenal are the undoubted set piece kings of the Premier League, scoring 10 goals from restarts already this season to add to their 20 from last season.

Gabriel is the most potent threat from these situations, contributing seven of those goals. The Brazilian has averaged 0.3 shots on target per 90 in all competitions this season which is excellent for a centre back. 

At the other end of the scale, only two Premier League sides have conceded more set piece goals than Manchester United. 

That vulnerability was no more clearly exposed than in the league meeting between these sides in December where both Arsenal goals came from corners. 

Arsenal racked up 1.59xg from set plays that day and with United having conceded six set piece goals in eight games since that match, Gabriel is a prime candidate to capitalise. 

Odds correct at the time of writing.