Top of the Props: Paq-man for Potter, City woes to continue and Tark bite for Spurs

Lucas Paqueta over 0.5 shots on target for West Ham vs Crystal Palace – 11/10 – BetMGM

Graham Potter’s opening Premier League game as Hammers boss brought a 3-2 win over Fulham. With Jarrod Bowen, Michail Antonio and Niclas Fullkrug all out injured, there were question marks over who would play up front. The answer was midfield man Lucas Paqueta who has now scored in both games under Potter. 

His average of 0.37 shots on target per 90 this season may be why we’re getting this price, however, that data has come whilst playing a deeper role and we can take advantage of him being more advanced now.

Crystal Palace are conceding 4.05 shots on target per game in the Premier League and their last three away games in all competitions have allowed their opponents 18 efforts on goal. 

Their data is not the strongest for this selection but positional changes under new managers is one of the biggest weapons to find the value against bookies when picking out props selections. At the price, Paqueta has to be backed. 

James Tarkowski over 0.5 shots for Everton vs Tottenham – 13/10 – BetMGM

James Tarkowski has been uncharacteristically quiet for shots this season, with just nine all season at an average of 0.45 per 90 whereas his previous two seasons saw averages of 0.8 and 0.7. 

David Moyes’ West Ham side scored 14 set-piece goals last season, so we can expect him to be targeting Tarkowski at every opportunity. 33% of the centre backs shots this season came in the reverse fixture against Tottenham as he had three efforts, all coming from corners.

Defending set pieces has consistently been an Achilles heel for Ange Postecoglou’s side, having shipped 17 goals from them since he took over. 

Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven are still out injured. Spurs’ makeshift defence have been targeted from set plays. The team have given up 11 shots to opposition centre backs across their last nine matches in all competitions. 

Tarkowski, a known threat from restarts and a new manager who plays a direct style, aiming to maximise set pieces, this looks like the perfect storm.

Ipswich over 8.5 shots vs Manchester City – 5/6 – BetMGM

Any assumptions that Manchester City were back in the groove were dampened by giving up to late two goals to drop points at Brentford in midweek. 

The downfall of Guardiola’s side has been staggering and one of the clearest indicators of how far they have fallen is in their shots conceded. 

Last season, City conceded just 7.7 shots per game (spg) but in their last ten games in all competitions, that average has jumped to 11.9. 

The air of invincibility has gone and teams are attacking the champions at will including huge totals of 17 (spg) for West Ham and 18 (spg) for Brentford. Nine of their last ten opponents have managed at least nine shots, with only Everton falling one short.

Ipswich are averaging 11.7 spg at Portman Road and have covered this line in every match on home soil other than on opening day against Liverpool where they had seven. 

That includes having had nine shots against Chelsea, 10 against Newcastle and 15 against Aston Villa, showing that they’re not afraid to pull the trigger against the stronger sides. 

Kieran McKenna will be hopeful of a morale-boosting victory to kickstart their bid for survival and with the side’s current form, it might not be that much of a shock result. 

Odds correct at the time of writing.