Jennie Gow F1 predictions: US GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play 

McLaren are 2025 Constructors’ World Champions. As Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri crossed the finish line in Singapore, their third and fourth place respectively was enough to seal the deal with six races still to go. Equalling the record set by Red Bull in 2023. 

What Zak Brown, Andrea Stella and the rest of the Woking based team have achieved is nothing short of miraculous, going from the back of the grid to winning two years on the trot.

However, their insistence to keep their drivers on good terms and treating each other with respect and fairness, appear to have hit a bump, as Norris and Piastri came together on the opening lap. 

Piastri voiced his frustration on the radio during the race. Norris, speaking afterwards believing he had done nothing wrong. With the title wrapped up, will this latest development see the drivers finally take off their gloves – or can McLaren get control of the situation? 

That’s the golden question. I’d back McLaren to settle any grudges and keep the ship sailing straight, but with two star drivers battling it out for what could be their only chance of a world title, never say never!H3: Red Bull re-energised?

In other news, Alex Dunne has parted ways with McLaren’s development programme and all signs are that he will become a Red Bull academy driver. Odds favour him doing another year in F2 before moving up to Racing Bulls. But it’s another name in the mix for a race seat as the battle continues for next year’s line-up. 

Will they stick with Yuki Tsunoda, or will they move Isack Hadjar up to partner Max Verstappen? 

With Arvid Lindblad waiting in the wings as well, Red Bull once again has a full stable to choose from and a management style that seems a little more tolerant. 

I wonder who will be driving for them next year? My bet would be on Verstappen and Hadjar, Lawson and Lindblad with Tsunoda going to Aston Martin as third driver.

US Grand Prix odds

World Drivers’ Championship odds

US Grand Prix predictions 

Buckle-up, it’s a sprint weekend as we ‘yeeha’ our way to the states for a double-header that sees F1 visit Texas and Mexico City.

First up is the Circuit of the America’s, COTA. 56 laps in an anticlockwise direction, the 5.513 km track has 20 corners, incorporating sections of track reminiscent of Silverstone, Suzuka, Hockenheim, and Istanbul. 

One of its most distinctive features is the start line with a 41m rise to the first turn. That’s the equivalent height of the Statue of Liberty from toe to torch tip.

Pirelli brought the same tyre allocation as in Belgium, testing out the step from the hardest tyre (C1) to jump to the C3 and C4. 

This is another attempt to see if the two stops can be the best strategy. Until we see the cars in action, it's hard to tell, but I still predict the one stop being the choice of teams, unless a virtual or full safety car swings the balance. 

With pit loss at about 21s, although overtaking is possible here, a one stop is still preferable.

Although Cherles Leclerc won here in 2024, Max Verstappen won the previous three GP’s in Austin, so expect him to go well, especially if Red Bull have found a way to ride the kerbs without damaging the performance of their car.

Breaking the curse

Despite Lando Norris putting his McLaren on pole last year, neither he or his teammate have won at COTA. 

Could this year be their year? The last Mercedes powered victory was in 2019 when Valtteri Bottas drove from pole to take the win. The smart money is on McLaren to take their 70th front row lock out and the win, but can they return to the front after three rocky races?

And how will the politics of last time out in Singapore affect the drives? Will Piastri be going for the kill or will it be Norris who gets his elbows out? 

Will the long-awaited war at Woking finally erupt, or will the calm presence of the team restore order and their two drivers continue to work as a team in spite of the championship being wrapped up? That’s the golden question. How badly will both drivers want their first Championship title?

FIRST.com’s top tip for US GP 

What are the odds of Piastri and Norris taking each other out and leaving the coast clear for a certain Max Verstappen to charge to his fourth win in COTA? The gap is currently 63 points between Verstappen and leader, Piastri. 

If Verstappen scored a maximum of 25 points on Sunday and neither McLaren were to score, the gap would close to a potential 38 points with five race weekends to go. Tasty?

Pick: Max Verstappen to win the US Grand Prix - 15/8 (Ladbrokes)

Extra tips

Hamilton has won five races at COTA and has finished on the podium in all but three of the 12 race weekends held at the circuit. 

2018 is the only season that Hamilton has finished in a position lower than where he has started at the United States Grand Prix. Can he finally have a good and clean weekend?

Pick: Lewis Hamilton podium finish - 4/1 (10bet) / 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

80% of races have been won from the front row of the grid. (10/12) The only other grid positions to have won from are 4th or 6th in the last 2 years.

Pick: To win qualifying and race winner (10bet)
- Max Verstappen - 4/1
- Lando Norris - 9/2
- Oscar Piastri - 11/2
- George Russell - 28/1
- Charles Leclerc - 33/1
- Lewis Hamilton - 66/1
- Kimi Antonelli - 150/1 

Safety car chances are relatively low – only 40% with most of those being virtual safety cars.  Stats say backing no actual safety car is a good bet.Pick: Safety car - No - 5/6 (10bet)

McLaren are looking for their 70th front row lock-out. This track suits them more than the last three so maybe this is the quali to back them.

Pick: Norris & Piastri to finish in the Top 2 + Over 17.5 cars class. + more than 2.5 leaders (Was 15/2) - 11/1 (Coral)

Kimi Antonelli, Ollie Bearman, Isack Hadjar and Gabriel Bortoleto have not raced at this circuit. With 22 points from the last two races, Antonelli seems in a good vein of form for the rookies. I’d back him and Bearman to challenge for points this weekend, with Bearman having driven for Haas in FP1 in 2023.

Pick: Ollie Bearman to score a points finish - 6/4 (Ladbrokes)

Updates at this point of the season don’t often come easy. Haas are bringing a small upgrade this weekend – could both drivers finish in the points on Sunday? They’ve only done it three times this season, but don’t let that stand in the way of this challenge.

Pick: Haas to get a double points finish - 14/1 (10bet)

FIRST’s recommended Formula 1 Singapore GP betting sites 

FIRST's expert team have put their heads together to come up with three of the best Formula 1 bookmakers to make their move on the US Grand Prix this weekend.

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructor standings

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Odds correct at the time of writing.