Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Mexico GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Mexico – the home of Lucha Libra, a wrestling style with masks and costumes. Literally translated it seems ‘free fight’…and boy when it comes to F1, have we got a fight on our hands!

What’s that you say? A three-way title fight. I’ll sign up for a bit of that! Max Verstappen was un-VER-stoppable in Austin as, with laser focus and a determination unlike most others, he homed in on the title fight and set his sights on both McLaren drivers. Game on…

Want more high-octane Formula 1? Find the leading F1 betting sites and bet with the best welcome bonuses today.

Formula One state of play 

Before Zandvoort it seemed like Verstappen didn’t have a real chance of winning the championship. 

The Red Bull wasn’t working too well, and he was over 100 points behind Oscar Piastri (and Lando Norris). Now, the RB21 is like a horse that’s been broken in, and all of a sudden the gap is right down to 40 points. 

It’s an impressive turn-around and if Verstappen could actually snatch the title away from the McLaren pair, it would statistically be the greatest comeback for an F1 championship. We all know how clinical the Dutchman can be; ask the fans and they think he can do it.

However, both McLaren drivers are going to do their best to stop him, and each other, from taking the spoils. Piastri has a 14-point advantage over Norris but speaking to the Australian after the US Grand Prix, he’s at a bit of a loss as to where his pace has gone. 

World Drivers’ Championship odds

Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes

After the chequered flag in Austin, the odds have flipped on their head. Piastri was the 4/9 favourite, while Max Verstappen was still at a fairly lengthy 6/1 before lights out at the US GP. Lando Norris has moved from 5/2 into 2/1 after a second placed finish in Texas. Not a great time in the season to suddenly not be able to fight. Can he come back even harder this weekend or will Norris once again be the faster of the pair? 

Of the last 10 races, if Norris has finished the race (he’s had two DNF’s), Piastri has only outscored him once in that time, at the Belgium race. 

It's time to head to round 20 of the Formula One championship, and Mexico. The Autodromo Hermanos Rodrigues, which sits just over 2,200ft above sea level, making it another test of both man and machine. 

A whole host of junior drivers will take to the track for FP1, most noticeably homeboy Pato O’Ward will drive Norris’ MCL39, will that give Piastri a slight advantage? Maybe…

Mexico Grand Prix odds

Odds courtesy of 10bet

Mexico Grand Prix predictions 

As was the case in Austin, the tyres will jump a compound between the hard and the medium. 

So, the C5 will be the softest tyre, the C4 the medium, as in 2024, and the Hard will now be the C2. I expect another one stop this weekend, unless a well-timed safety car makes a two-stop more attractive.

With a massive main straight of 1.2km and a track that isn’t used too much, expect times to get faster and faster as we progress through the practice sessions. The fastest lap of the weekend will most likely be the very last lap of qualifying so expect drivers to battle for track position.

Read more: Weather and track conditions - F1’s great equaliser in betting markets

Max Verstappen is the most successful driver at this track (5 wins), which explains why Red Bull is among the teams with the most wins in Mexico, with five in total (2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023). 

Ferrari have taken the last two poles here, and bearing in mind Lewis Hamilton is still  hunting his first GP podium with Ferrari, he celebrated winning his world titles in Mexico in both 2017 and 2018 (taking wins in 2016 and 2019). It’s a track he goes well at with six podium finishes.

FIRST.com’s top tip for Mexico GP 

You’d have to be brave but what about Charles Leclerc getting pole? He’s started on pole twice in Mexico (2019 and 2023) and while it seems like a long-shot. 

Ferrari have definitely found something with the car, this could be his second pole of the season, but it’s a risky call.

Pick: Charles Leclerc to win the Mexico GP - 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Extra tips and predictions 

T1 crash: The track has the longest run from pole position to the first braking zone of any on the 2025 F1 calendar (767m) and almost 10 seconds of the 1.2-kilometre-long straight are taken at full throttle.

Expect drama at the first turn with at least one driver locking up and taking to the grass.

Slim pole to win rate: From the 24 races here, the pole-sitter won just 11 times. Only two of the last seven races have been won from pole (2016 and 2022).

If you did fancy a winner from pole, here are the latest odds;

Max Verstappen - 2/1
Lando Norris - 9/2
Oscar Piastri - 9/1
George Russell - 50/1
Charles Leclerc - 66/1
Lewis Hamilton  100/1

(10bet)

Top six: Since the event’s return in 2015, no podium finishes have been recorded from outside the top six on the grid.

Here’s some of Ladbrokes best value potential top six finishers;

Lewis Hamilton - 4/7
Isack Hadjar - 3/1
Yuki Tsunoda - 7/2
Alexander Albon 5/1
Fernando Alonso - 5/1
Oliver Bearman - 6/1
Carlos Sainz Jr. - 7/1

Reasons to be cautious: 100% of the last eight races in Mexico have featured a caution period of some kind. 

The 2015, 2016, 2021, 2023 and 2024 races featured a full safety car period each, while 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 had a single Virtual Safety Car stint each. 

Pick: Safety car to feature in the race - Yes - 8/13 (10bet)

FIRST’s recommended Formula 1 Mexico GP betting sites 

FIRST's expert team have put their heads together to come up with three of the best Formula 1 bookmakers to make their move on the Mexico Grand Prix this weekend.

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructor standings

Responsible gambling with FIRST.com

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Gamcare

Odds correct at the time of writing.