Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Las Vegas GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Do you dare to go all in on red? Could we really see Ferrari finally taking their first win of the season as they take on the streets of ‘sin city’? It might not be such a tall order as you think.

Las Vegas GP winning car odds 

Formula One state of play 

It’s time for the final three races of the 2025 season, and they’ll come thick and fast as we enter the triple-header of Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

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It’s advantage Lando Norris in the F1 drivers title fight odds, as the 26-year-old from Bristol moves into a 24 point lead over his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri. A hefty margin with three races to go – a total of 83 points. 

Max Verstappen fans will be disappointed that he slipped further behind the championship lead, 49-points now being the gap to Norris. 

Nonetheless, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, never write off Verstappen, but even his most faithful supporters are finding it hard to believe he’ll win a fifth consecutive title this year.

World Drivers’ Championship odds 

Talking of Red Bull, with Verstappen performing a miracle in Brazil, driving from pit lane to podium (second place) the team has leap-frogged Ferrari in the constructor’s standings to take third place (32 points behind Mercedes). 

If only they had a second car that could consistently score points. With too many lacklustre performances, I do see the writing on the wall for Yuki Tsunodu. 

It’s not confirmed yet, but I think Isack Hadjar will move up leaving a space for 18-year-old Brit Arvid Lindblad to graduate from F2 to partner Hadjar’s current team-mate Liam Lawson at Racing Bulls, whose results have shown more promise and confidence as he beds into the team.

As Red Bull start planning for next year, it’s this year that has been a headache for Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari. 

Describing it as ‘a nightmare’ after the Brazilian Grand Prix, Ferrari chairman John Elkann responded by saying its drivers "need to focus on driving and talk less". 

Harsh words from the boss, but will the troops rally in red or will the public dressing down destroy what little hope the team has in this season?

But there might be good news on the horizon…

Las Vegas Grand Prix winner odds 

Las Vegas Grand Prix predictions 

With only two races in Vegas in this modern era there is very little data to go from. That’s why you have to look at things we do know – because there’s so much we don’t! 

Max Verstappen won the first Las Vegas GP, George Russell the second.

Charles Leclerc and Geroge Russell have taken pole positions previously.

It’s cold in Vegas, meaning there is very little grip for the fragile tyres.

Tyres last year didn’t perform well. The hard tyre was the preferred option, the soft tyres pretty much redundant.

The track is a little like Baku, with long high-speed straights and low-speed corner boxy corners.

Last year looked like a one-stop, but the mediums didn’t last so it became a two-stop. Watch for drivers destroying their tyres, the key to a good race is keeping tyres alive.

McLaren’s car isn’t one that is predicted to go well at the track. It plays into all of its weak points.

Mercedes and Ferrari go well at a track with Vegas’ characteristics but Red Bull could bring their low-drag wing which might bring them back into the fight.

The race is run over 50-laps, each 6.2km, flashing through the sights and sounds of the  world-famous Vegas strip. 

READ: Weather and track conditions - F1’s greatest equaliser in betting markets

Once again, the tires are the C3, C4 and C5. The main challenge will be tyre temperature management, especially during qualifying. 

The sessions are earlier this year and will help the drivers, as conditions won’t be quite as cold, thus helping tyre warm-up. However, the preparation lap prior to the flying lap will still be crucial to get the tyres up into the right temperature window.

So, with all that said, I do see this being one of the final opportunities this year for Ferrari to win a race. 

It’s still a long-shot, but it’s the best shot they have! However, it’s hard to see past Mercedes for the win again, they really mastered Vegas last time out. Kimi Antonelli’s form in Brazil impressed across the whole weekend, culminating in a podium. 

He’ll push Russell hard for the win but Russell, in the form of his life, will want to teach his teammate that a good weekend does change the packing order.

Ferrari for pole, Mercedes for the win. Take your pick with the drivers but I’m backing Leclerc and Russell.

FIRST.com’s top tip - Las Vegas GP 

Geore Russell and Lando Norris will both make their 150th F1 start this weekend. I predict both men finishing on the podium to celebrate. 

Could we see an all-British podium? Maybe with Hamilton sneaking in on the celebrations…

Pick: Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium - 8/1 (Betfred)

Extra tips 

The past seven GP’s have each been won from pole position – if the Vegas GP is won from pole, it would equal the record of consecutive pole-conversions, set in the 1976 season. 

The 112-metre run from pole position to the first braking zone is the second shortest of the year. Only Baku in Azerbaijan (at 89m) has a shorter run, so expect fireworks off the start line.

Pick: To win qualifying and to win the race (10bet)

Max Verstappen - 7/2
Lando Norris - 9/2
George Russell - 11/2
Oscar Piastri - 20/1
Kimi Antonelli - 20/1
Charles Leclerc - 33/1

Safety first: Despite hosting only two races, the safety car featured twice in the first race, on lap 3 when Norris crashed heavily at T12 and then again on lap 26 after Russell and Verstappen had contact, again at T12. 

The odds are 50/50 but my gut tells me with rookies on track and championships on the line we could see safety cars again in this race.

Pick: Safety car to feature in the race - Yes - 2/7 (10bet)

From zero to hero: It was a tough home-weekend in Brazil last time out for Gabi Bortoleto. He’s “keen to move on” and this must be a better weekend than last time out. It will be a new track for the Brazilian, but he’s an outside bet to pick up points.

Pick: Gabriel Borteleto for a points finish - 15/8 (10bet)

Things to consider

Title wrap: Just a note, Norris cannot win the world title in Las Vegas no matter what the results are. His first chance to do that would be on Saturday in Qatar in the sprint race, if he wins this weekend.

Might be worth a punt on when he would be crowned world champion…

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructor standings

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Odds correct at the time of writing.