Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Abu Dhabi GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play

Some dreams can come true in a moment; others take years and years of dedication and training to be realised. Winning your first Formula One World Championship title is one of those ambitions that takes so much, it’s almost impossible to imagine.

Two drivers stand on the verge of doing just that, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. And they wear the same team’s colours.

Norris leads the way with a 12 points gap at the top of the standings. Piastri, who led the championship for 15 rounds, is now the long shot, 16 points away from his first title. He will be reliant on others failing to score.

Enter Max Verstappen, a man who feels no pressure and is in with a serious chance of claiming his fifth world title. He’s in a McLaren sandwich in second place and has made up over 100 points in the last 10 rounds. We’ve written it down so many times, never write off Verstappen…

World Drivers’ Championship odds 

All three men have seven wins for the season. McLaren has the best car – and normally the F1 champion is the best driver in the best car but there are arguments for and against all of the drivers.

Verstappen – Has won so many titles and was not even in real contention for the 2025 crown until recently. Is there pressure? He certainly doesn’t show it.

Norris – Has the advantage in the standings and has been on the podium in all but six races this year (including his DSQ from Vegas).

Piastri – He had a near faultless race last time out in Qatar, back to his absolute best, but McLaren made a wrong call and cost him the race win. 

Can McLaren shake off Qatar woes to get it right and give either of their drivers the title? Or will Red Bull play their trump card and help Verstappen lift a fifth consecutive drivers’ championship – equalling Michael Schumacher’s record.

It goes down to the wire in Abu Dhabi…

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix winner odds

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix predictions 

This will be the 17th consecutive year that the Yas Marina circuit has hosted the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The first edition, in 2009, was won by Sebastian Vettel. 

Abu Dhabi: Where champions are made

It will be the fourth time that Abu Dhabi hosts the title decider where drama has been a feature each and every time.

The circuit analysis and past performances

Yas Marina has hosted the final race of the Formula 1 season 13 times. The track is 5.281 kilometres long and features 16 corners. 58 laps of the Yas Marina Circuit stand between the top three and the championship crown.

The most successful driver in Abu Dhabi is Lewis Hamilton with five wins and five poles. This year, Verstappen could equal that record. Red Bull Racing has the most wins (7) while Mercedes are just one behind. 

Pirelli will bring the C3 (H), C4 (M) and C5 (S). Expect a one stop race, 19 drivers started on the medium last year, the only man to do the reverse strategy was Hamilton who started on the hard tyres.

It was a McLaren front-row lock out in 2024, Verstappen started p4 but tagged Piastri into the first corner and Lando Norris took the win. 

Before that, Verstappen won every race between 2020-2023. These are the only three people on the current grid who have won at Yas Island.

All eyes will be on the battle for pole position in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. The last 10 races have all been won by the man starting on pole. 

It’s a short 177m dash down to the first corner, which invariably sees contact between at least two drivers every year.

FIRST’s top tip - Qatar GP 

A podium finish would be enough for Norris to win his first world title. If he finishes the race in the top three, it doesn’t matter where anyone else finishes. It would be enough.

For Verstappen to be champion he needs to win and hope Norris finishes off the podium.

As for Piastri, he needs a lot to go his way. He must win and hope the others finish well down the order.

Pick: Lando Norris to finish on the podium - 28/100 (10bet)

Extra tips

Historically, bagging pole position is key in Abu Dhabi. The last 10 races have all been won from starting first on the grid, so nailing it in qualifying on Saturday will be essential. The race has never been won from further back then fourth place. 

Pick: To win qualifying and to win the race (10bet)

Norris - 7/2
Verstappen - 7/2
Piastri - 11/2
Russell - 20/1

Leading after the first lap could also be crucial to the race win here, if Norris can lead the way he could be on for a historic victory.

Pick: Leader after first lap - The driver from pole: 4/9 (10bet)

Verstappen has reached Q3 at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in all of the last nine seasons, qualifying in the top six each time. Piastri (two races) and Norris (six races) have a 100% Q3 record at Yas Marina Circuit.

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix has been won by less than five seconds on six occasions, including at four of the last nine events.

Pick: Winning margin: 00 - 05.999 sec. - 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

Safety car (SC) stats for the past five years show only a 40% chance of a full SC period. Last year there was a Virtual Safety Car (VSC) on lap two for one lap. 

Prior to that, in 2021, lap 36 had a VSC and the full SC was deployed (infamously) on lap 53. 

In 2020 there was a VSC on lap 10 before a full SC period.

Pick: Safety car - No: 1/1 (Ladbrokes)

Battle for sixth:

A fight worth millions further down the grid, Red Bull Racing’ junior team, Racing Bulls are the team on form and should hold on to place. 

But it's tight going into the final round with Aston Martin, Haas and Sauber all within 24 points, so a double points finish could seal it. 

Pick: Double points finish; (Ladbrokes)

Racing Bulls - 7/2
Aston Martin - 8/1
Haas F1 - 8/1
Sauber - 10/1 

2025 Formula 1 constructor standings

2025 Formula 1 driver standings