Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Qatar GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play 

A drama filled Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend saw McLaren disqualified from the race in ‘sin city’ for exceeding skid-block wear. 

It was a matter of millimetres for both cars, but it was enough to see their points scoring run skid to an abrupt halt. So with just two races of the 2025 season left to go, Max Verstappen is still in with a chance of taking his fifth consecutive title as we race towards Abu Dhabi.

After Verstappen’s victory in Vegas, flanked by the two Mercedes cars (after McLaren’s DSQ) the Dutchman is now just 24 points adrift from Championship leader Lando Norris and level on points with Oscar Piastri. 

There’s a maximum of 58 points remaining, with two GP’s and one sprint race.

World Drivers’ Championship odds 

After McLaren's double disqualification debacle in Las Vegas, Oscar Piastri has gone from 6/1 second fav out to 18s for the title.

This meant Max Verstappen was the big winner in Sin City, going from 14/1 outsider into 5/2 and now with a serious chance of retaining the crown from under the noses of the Papaya pair. 

Mathematically, and logically, Norris is still favourite to win the title, but the ominous threat of reigning champ Verstappen, and the old adage that you ‘write off Max at your own peril’, means it’s impossible to discount him at this stage. 

Not only do we have a juicy fight for the title, there’s also millions of pounds on the line in the Constructors Championship. 

2025 Formula 1 constructor standings

Mercedes are now in a strong second place 40 points ahead of third place Red Bull, who themselves are 13 points clear of Ferrari. 

Further down, Williams look comfortable in fifth place and maybe even Racing Bulls have done enough for sixth (just) but the battle for seventh is fierce between Haas, Aston Martin and Sauber. With the difference of about $30m (£22.6m) between 7-9th places it will go down to the wire.

Haas are the team in form with at least one driver scoring points in the last five rounds. After two terrible rounds for rookie Gabriel Bortoleto, he’ll hope for redemption in Qatar but will it be too little, too late for Sauber who will morph into Audi next year?

Qatar Grand Prix winner odds 

Qatar Grand Prix predictions 

Talk about the race specifically, including who may finish in the top three (or more).

Has a specific/driver or constructor performed well on this track previously. Which tyres would suit the track/ is this commonly a 1/2/3 pit stop track.

So, let’s look at Qatar. A race weekend that rewards resilience: physical, mental, and mechanical.

The Lusail International Circuit, located on the outskirts of Doha, is one of the fastest on the calendar. 

Its 5.419km, 3.3-mile, 16 turn layout, is a mix of medium and high-speed corners which on paper, should suit McLaren more than any other team. Could we see the team’s first 1-2 since the height of summer in Hungary?

Read more: Weather and track conditions - F1’s great betting equaliser

It’s the final sprint weekend of the season, just to make matters of the championship more confusing and with Norris’ first chance to win a world title it’s easy to get wrapped up in the drama and tension that will ensue.

Norris can’t win the title on Saturday – he’ll have to wait until the full Grand Prix on Sunday. 

For the 26-year-old Brit to take the crown in Qatar he needs to leave with a 26 points advantage over his title rivals – meaning he needs to outscore them by just two points. With eight points available on Saturday and 25 points on Sunday, and with Norris’ current form, you’d have to think that was a possibility.

In the last five GPs’ this season; 

• Norris has finished on track in 3-4-1-1-2 (95 points)
• Verstappen has finished in 2-1-3-3-1 (74 points)
• Piastri has finished on track in 4-5-5-5-4 (54 points)

Looking at those stats it’s hard not to see Norris leaving Qatar without his first ever world title. However, both Verstappen and Piastri will be trying their hardest to take it from his grasp. 

What about the race? Qatar has hosted three races so far, the first being won by Lewis Hamilton, then the last two races being won by Verstappen. All won from the front row.

The GP will be (at least) a two-stopper, a decision mandated by Pirelli for safety reasons. 

It will be a good experiment as races have fallen into a routine of having just one stop on more occasions than not this year. 

It means there will be a limit of 25 laps on each tyre set. With 57 laps under the lights the tyres are the hardest sets made by Pirelli – the C1 (hard), C2 (medium) and C3 (soft) – the same as last year.

Last year’s race was interrupted by safety cars, but most teams started on the mediums and switched to the hard tyres for the final stint. It will be interesting to see with a two-stop what teams will do but expect all three compounds to feature on the grid.

FIRST.com’s top tip for Qatar GP 

A sentence explaining clearly the betting tip with the odds at time of writing from one of our partners (such as, but not exclusively, race winner)

McLaren could take their 71st front row lock-out if Norris and Piastri take pole and second in qualifying for the Grand Prix. I’d back them for this, despite Zandvoort being the last time they did this.

Pick: Qualifying winning car - McLaren - 1/1 (Ladbrokes)

Fastest qualifier: Lando Norris - 7/4 (Betway) / Oscar Piastri - 6/1 (Betway)

Extra tips

All bets are off when it comes to Aston Martin’s new Team Principal. Rumours were rife that Christian Horner was in the frame to take over from Andy Cowell, but in fact Adrian Newey becomes the new TP for 2026. 

The master of his own ship for the first time in his distinguished career. The question to ask now is where will they finish next year, and could Newey steer the team to victory?

The offseason’s testing and subsequent 2026 odds will make interesting reading.

Delightful debuts: All the rookies have raced in Qatar before but the following four have never raced in Qatar in F1, only F2. 

Kimi Antonelli crashed out of both races last year.

Oliver Bearman won the sprint but finished 12th in the main race.

Isack Hadjar bagged second place in the sprint and feature race. While Sauber’s Gabriel Bortoleto took fifth in the sprint and won the feature race before picking up a five-second penalty for crossing the pit entry line during the race, dropping him to third in the final order.

It’s hard to choose who will finish as top rookie but the odds favour Kimi Antonelli with Isack Hajdar but behind.

Pick: Kimi Antonelli for a top six finish - 2/5 (10bet)

Title winner: Verstappen won his title in Qatar in 2023, but will Norris be able to replicate that and win with one round to go?

Pick: Lando Norris to win the drivers’ title - 3/10 (10bet)

Lando’s highest finish in Qatar was a third place in 2023. His highest start was third place last year. 

If you rate him for the clean sweep this weekend – taking pole and the win in the sprint and Grand Prix like he did in Brazil (which would see him crowned champion) 

Pick: Lando Norris for the hattrick -  take pole, win the sprint and the Grand Prix - 8/1 (10bet)

‘Virtually’ guaranteed: With three GP’s taking place in Qatar we have seen VSC’s on lap 55 in 2021, three full safety cars in 2023 in the sprint race and one in the GP, then in 2024 there were two full safety cars and one virtual safety car that became a full safety car. 

On average each SC period lasts 4 laps, a VSC about 2 laps. So, they’re appearances are fast and furious but have a track record of happening in every race so far.

Pick: Safety car to feature - Yes - 4/9 (Ladbrokes)

Total nightmare? At the end of the season parts go wrong and teams are tired, add to that the high-speed nature of Qatar (in the dark) and things can get messy. 

It's quite easy to see a few cars not making the finish line so under 17.5 is realistic, under 16.5 is brave but far from impossible.

Pick: Number of classified finishers - Under 17.5 - 7/5 (Ladbrokes)

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

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Odds correct at the time of writing.