22 April 2025 Novelty markets

Contenders and odds on who will become the next pope to replace Pope Francis

Written by: Graeme Hanna Casino & Sports Betting Expert
3 min to read
Contenders and odds on who will become the next pope to replace Pope Francis

Following the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, the papal conclave will convene to determine who will be the successor to the late pontiff. 

Within the next 20 days, 120 of the Roman Catholic Church’s 138 cardinals will form the conclave inside the Sistine Chapel. Cardinals over the age of 80 are not eligible to participate in the voting process. 

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The next pope will need to command a two-thirds majority, as the process of elimination unfolds. Cardinals can vote up to four times each day, until there is a clear winner. 

So, who are the candidates, and what are the odds in the contest to become the next pope? 

The conclave is thought to be very difficult to predict, given the secrecy that surrounds the process. The cardinals will not be in contact with the outside world until the white smoke arises to declare that a new leader of the Roman Catholic church has been chosen. 

One early frontrunner is thought to be Pietro Parolin, the incumbent Secretary of State at the Vatican and a well-known ally of the late Francis.

The 70-year-old Italian has been given odds of 15/8 by one prominent British bookmaker, highlighting his early prospects.

Parolin has effectively been a diplomat and a mediator, with those skills putting him in strong contention for the top job. He appears well placed to use his experience and strong personality to continue the work and remit of his mentor and associate, Pope Francis.

Another associate of the late pontiff in the running is Luis Antonio Tagle. 

The ‘Asian Francis’ from the Philippines would represent a continuation of the policies and positions of the Argentine, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio. 

The 67-year-old is part of a growing contingent with Asian cardinals now making up almost a quarter of the eligible conclave quota.

If continuity is desired, Tagle is in a favorable position, and his appointment would invigorate the fastest-growing region in the Catholic world. 

Luis Antonio Tagle is ranked at 10/3, at the top of the list of contenders.

Mateo Zuppi, aged 69, served as Pope Francis’ special envoy for the war in Ukraine, undertaking numerous trips to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, and Washington in recent times. 

The Archbishop of Bologna also holds the office of president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy.

Zuppi is currently listed at 5/1 to become the successor to Pope Francis.

Another contender attracting interest is Peter Erdo, 72, after the Hungarian cardinal emerged from the last conclave as a likely future papal prospect. 

The Primate of Hungary has also served as the president of the Council of the Bishops' Conferences of Europe.

He is placed at 8/1 to become the next pope.

The following odds for selected candidates with William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

CandidateOdds
Pietro Parolin15/8
Luis Antonio Tagle10/3
Matteo Zuppi5/1
Peter Turkson7/1
Peter Erdo8/1
Pierbattista Pizzaballa12/1
Angelo Scola18/1
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu20/1
Robert Sarah20/1
Raymond Leo Burke20/1
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