Champions League betting tips: Final preview

The 2025 Champions League final takes place in Munich on Saturday between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan. Remarkably, it is the first competitive meeting of these huge football clubs.

Both teams have been beaten finalists in this competition within the last five years, though historically their pedigrees differ. Where PSG are looking to become champions of Europe for the first time, their opponents this weekend lifted the trophy in 1964, 1965 and 2010.

If Inter prevail in Germany, only five clubs will have won this competition more times. Only three will have lost more finals if they are beaten though. Let’s look at what might happen at the Allianz Arena.

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Paris Saint-Germain vs Inter betting tips

Paris Saint-Germain are favourites to win the 2025 Champions League final. Both the difficulty of their path to this point and their underlying expected goal numbers justify this position. 

After thumping Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the first knockout round, Luis Enrique’s side had to face three Premier League clubs, all of whom had finished in the top eight of the competition’s league phase. 

They dispatched Liverpool (who finished first in the opening stage), Aston Villa (eighth) and Arsenal (third). While Inter had to beat Barcelona (second) in a never-to-be-forgotten semi-final, that came after facing Feyenoord (19th) and Bayern Munich (12th), two sides who hadn’t been as dominant in Europe this season.

The impressive but unsustainable defensive run Simone Inzaghi’s side enjoyed early in the competition came to an end too. Inter conceded just one goal from chances collectively valued at 7.3 xG across their eight league phase matches. A far more predictable 10 goals from 9.9 expected followed in the knockout rounds. 

It’s notable that Inter allowed at least 19 shots in their four matches with Bayern and Barcelona. As the Parisiens had 26 or more against Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester City, they should dominate the shot count in Munich. 

They will have more of the ball too, as their possession average of 61.6% in this competition this season is markedly above Inter’s 47.4. These factors don’t automatically mean the Ligue 1 champions will easily create good quality chances though.

Only Arsenal’s opponents had a lower average xG per non-penalty shot figure than those sides who faced Inter. Inzaghi’s boys allow a lot of shots, but they restrict the value of them.

PSG will need to unlock Inter’s 3-5-2 formation, having not faced a back three or five in the Champions League this season. Their matches against teams with these tactics in lower standard French football aren’t of much value experience-wise for the second youngest team in this competition in 2024/25.

Indeed, PSG lost their previous two matches against sides who deployed back threes, albeit both occurred after the title was won. They were only able to muster 1.1 and 1.2 xG against the three central defenders of Toulouse and Lens respectively in the winter though.

While PSG should still create chances here, they will come up against a top goalkeeper in Yann Sommer. He has saved 5.1 goals more than expected in the 2024/25 Champions League, the most of any shot stopper. With Gianluigi Donnarumma no slouch at the other end – he’s +2.1 against post-shot xG – it’s reasonable to expect this to be low scoring. 

PSG should have enough to win in normal time. Their defence held both to Arsenal and Liverpool to one goal over two matches (plus extra time for the latter) and the potency of their attack should break through at the other end. This will be intriguing rather than entertaining though.

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Scoreline prediction

Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 Inter (6/1 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Paris Saint-Germain to win (23/20 with BetMGM)

Extra tip

Player prop bets for Inter are tricky. Marcus Thuram has featured in just three of their previous nine matches (though both legs of their Champions League semi-final) while Lautaro Martinez only made the bench for their final Serie A game after missing two through injury. Check their confirmed team news before making a play.

The sensible selection is Ousmane Dembele, who has had more shots than any other player in the competition this season.

The PSG forward has made a goal contribution in his previous five Champions League matches too. Dembele also scored or assisted in seven of eight games prior to a couple of dead rubber fixtures in the last two weeks. He looks ready to make a decisive impact on the final.

Pick: Ousmane Dembele to score or assist (10/11 with Monster)

The value picks

Champions League finals have seen very few goals in recent years. Real Madrid’s 2-0 win over Dortmund last season came on the back of four in a row which had ended 1-0. Prior to that was Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Tottenham in 2019, in which the second goal came in the 87th minute. 

While the 2018 showpiece saw a 3-1 win for Real over the Reds, that match was goalless at half time. This contributes to a total of just two first half goals across the previous seven Champions League finals, with one of the strikes a somewhat contentious handball penalty for Liverpool six years ago.

Inter’s likely path to victory is to frustrate PSG and pinch a goal on the break. If they get ahead they will do everything they can to keep Enrique’s men at bay. A low-goal bet carries the risk of an early deadlock breaker, but history suggests it’s a good value selection. 

Pick: Under 1.5 goals (14/5 with BetMGM)

Pick: Under 0.5 1st Half Goals (2/1 with Spreadex)

Also worth considering

Referee Istvan Kovacs has been working his way up the ladder of UEFA finals. He took charge of one in the Conference League in 2022 before running the Europa League showpiece last season.

He showed five yellow cards in the former, then seven in the latter. It’s notable five of those 12 bookings were for dissent or time wasting, showing Kovacs is unafraid to punish off-ball offences. If the match is tight as expected, players will protect their lead at all costs. 

The Romanian ref also showed seven yellows and sent off Dembele when PSG went to Munich earlier in the competition. There should be quite a few bookings on Saturday night. 

Pick: Over 4.5 cards (21/20 with Zetbet)