England vs Wales tips and predictions: Can Tuchel’s tinkering survive a clash with the Red Dragons?

England and Wales renew their cross-border rivalry at Wembley on Thursday night in a friendly that feels anything but casual. 

Thomas Tuchel’s experimental England side look to sustain momentum after thrashing Serbia, while Craig Bellamy’s Wales test their defensive resolve and counter threat against one of Europe’s deepest squads.

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England state of play

England came into this friendly after a comprehensive 5-0 win over Serbia in September. This win extended their run in World Cup qualification, keeping them top of the group without conceding. 

Manager Thomas Tuchel has made bold calls in squad selection: Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish are all omitted. Tuchel explained that Bellingham, recovering from shoulder surgery, “has not gathered full rhythm” and that their exclusion is not personal. But does raise the question who will make the final 26-man squad for North America next summer. 

Bukayo Saka returns to the squad, replacing Arsenal team-mate Noni Madueke, who is injured, and captain Harry Kane was a late injury drop-out. The rest of the squad remains largely consistent with the Serbia camp. 

Wales state of play

Craig Bellamy’s Wales are approaching the England friendly as a test and also preparing for a key World Cup qualifier against Belgium. 

Aaron Ramsey was recalled after a 13-month absence. However, he has since withdrawn from the squad due to injury. Daniel James is dealing with an ankle issue, while Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies have been called in as replacements. 

Bellamy has warned that Wales must be “full gas” to compete, given the gulf in resources and squad depth. Wales will likely adopt a compact defensive shape, relying on transitions and set-play opportunities.

Key talking point: Will England’s rotation hurt their continuity?

Tuchel’s decision to retain a largely similar squad to the Serbia fixtures, while omitting high-profile figures like Bellingham, Foden and Grealish, signals a focus on cohesion and momentum over star selection. 

Bellingham’s exclusion is explicitly attributed to his lack of match rhythm rather than a personal rift – Tuchel says there is “no problem” between them. Thus, England should enter this match with a familiar shape and trust in their existing core.

Wales, meanwhile, will see this as a chance to test their resilience. With Ramsey and James out, their midfield creativity is reduced, placing greater burden on wide runners and the recalled Colwill and Davies. 

Their defensive discipline and transition speed will be crucial if they are to impose themselves at Wembley. 

England carry qualitative dominance and continuity, but may not flood forward recklessly given the friendly setting. 

A win for England, one of the 2026 World Cup’s heavy favourites, is expected, but victory by huge margin is less certain as they look to maintain freshness and focus for a qualifier away at Latvia next week.

FIRST’s top tip for England vs Wales

Pick: England to win - 1/4  (Ladbrokes)

With a stable core from their Serbia win and squad depth advantage, England should prevail without excessive risk.

Extra tips

Pick: Marcus Rashford to score anytime - 7/2 (Coral)

The on-loan Barcelona forward netted his first La Liga goal last weekend and will be a focal point of England’s attack in Kane’s absence.

Pick: Under 3.5 match goals -  2/5 (Ladbrokes)

Friendlies often trend lower as managers balance experimentation and match sharpness.

Team news

England omit Bellingham (recovering from shoulder surgery), Foden and Grealish; Kane is a late injury drop-out while Saka returns to replace Arsenal team-mate Madueke. 

Wales withdrew Ramsey and James; Colwill and Davies are called in. Bellamy is likely to lean on experience in midfield and reinforce defensive shape.

Predicted line-ups for England vs Wales

England: Henderson; Spence, Konsa, Guehi, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Anderson, Rogers; Saka, Watkins, Rashford (4-3-3)

Wales: Darlow; Williams, Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Ampadu, J. James; Johnson, Wilson, Thomas; Moore (4-2-3-1)

Form guide (including friendlies)

England: WWLWWWWWWL 

Wales: WWLWDWWDWD

FIRST recommended football betting sites for England vs Wales

Our plucky team of experts at FIRST.com have picked out some of the best football betting sites to make your picks for England vs Wales, both pre-match and in-play betting.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.