FIFA Club World Cup betting preview 2025: Are Real Madrid and Man City really where the smart money is?

With over £750 million in prize money on offer, all 32 teams heading to the US this summer will be putting their heart and soul into winning the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup - whether fans have bought into the new format just yet is up for debate. 

We've already had a look at the top goalscorers markets ahead of the tournament. But our football betting expert Nathan Joyes runs us through the new format, favourites, value picks and more ahead of a hectic four weeks in the States. 

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How does the new format work? 

For the first time in its history, the Club World Cup has expanded to 32 teams that will mimic the format of the actual World Cup. Eight groups consisting of four teams each, where the top two will qualify for the knockout stages.

From there, those qualified will compete from the round of 16 until there are just two teams left in the final, set to pick up a shiny new trophy and a rather large cheque.

Will it work? That’s a difficult question to answer at this stage. With no other major tournament happening this summer, football fans will naturally be drawn in. But with the likes of Barcelona not competing, and the US audience instead set to witness Mamelodi Sundowns and Ulsan, tickets haven’t been sold at the rate anticipated - I wonder why.

Still, an opportunity to witness South American clubs face European powerhouses doesn’t happen often - if at all - and the chance to learn about new players and teams is always interesting to the average football fan. 

So who’s going to win it? Let’s talk about the favourites and the value picks to reign supreme in the US.

READ: Bet365 launches free-to-play Club World Cup £50k predictor

The favourites 

It's no surprise to see Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid at the top of the betting market. Priced at 4/1 with Ladbrokes, the Spaniard is almost expected to lift his first trophy in July - but can that be trusted? Los Blancos are definitely taking it seriously. They moved quickly to make sure Trent Alexander-Arnold was with the squad before flying to the US, while keeping Rodrygo on board was a huge win for Alonso.

But having fallen short in both La Liga and the Champions League, can Real Madrid really be trusted to produce the goods at a rather short price? It may take some time to adapt to Alonso’s new style of play.

What is perhaps eyebrow-raising is that Man City are priced at 11/2. Pep Guardiola’s side went the entire 2024/25 campaign trophyless - losing the FA Cup final to Crystal Palace only last month.

Several new faces have been brought in prior to the Club World Cup, but lacking a strong, creative player in the middle of the park could be their downfall. Approach with caution, Man City have a lot to do to convince anyone that this tournament is theirs.

Real Madrid to win FIFA Club World Cup - 4/1 (Ladbrokes)

Manchester City to win FIFA Club World Cup - 11/2 (Ladbrokes)

The value picks

Who else is worth looking at for the outright win? PSG are sitting at 9/2 with Betfred after their Champions League victory. But it’s worth noting that Ousmane Dembele is out injured, while Bradley Barcola is also a doubt - two key players for the French outfit.

Pick: Paris Saint-Germain to win FIFA Club World Cup - 9/2 (Betfred)

Next in the line: Vincent Kompany’s Bayern Munich. An easy group, yes - but Harry Kane looked leggy against Andorra and Senegal for England - who wasn’t afraid to admit he was tired after a long, gruelling season. Still worth looking at, at 7/1.

Pick: Bayern Munich to win FIFA Club World Cup - 7/1 (Betfred)

A huge outside swing could be with Borussia Dortmund at 25/1. The Germans were outstanding towards the end of the season, have arguably the easiest group and won’t potentially meet anyone at the top of the market until the quarter-finals. 

With Serhou Guirassy in the form of his life - scoring 34 goals across the Bundesliga and Champions League - and with plenty of pace either side of him, Dortmund are double the price of Chelsea - Niko Kovac’s side could be the dark horses.

Top pick: Borussia Dortmund to win FIFA Club World Cup - 25/1 (Betfred)

Also worth considering 

Upsets will happen. Yes, the European clubs are set to dominate, but let’s not forget they’ve had long seasons already. And that’s where South American clubs can potentially profit.

The four Brazilian clubs are only 10-15 games into their 2025 campaigns, and Palmeiras, Flamengo and Fluminense all have possibilities to reach the round of 16.

There’s a gulf in budgets, but if there’s anything we can take away from major events - think Saudi Arabia vs Argentina - football doesn’t always pan out as expected. And with big followings expected for the South American clubs in the US, this could be a factor that helps spring a surprise or two along the way.

Full odds for outright winner 2025 FIFA Club World Cup 

Odds supplied by Betfred.

All odds correct at time of writing.