US Open betting tips: Can favourite Scottie Scheffler tame Oakmont and add major number four?

US Open: Things to consider  

The US Open returns to Oakmont, one of the toughest US Open venues on the rotation. Last time we visited Oakmont in 2016, tough conditions saw Shane Lowry blow away a four-stroke lead on the final day and surrender victory to Dustin Johnson (160/1 Spreadex). Only four players finished under par that week.

The 2024 US Open at Pinehurst saw a then major record tournament purse with $21.5million (£15.86m) in the pot and a winner’s cheque of $4.3m (£3.17m). There are 750 valuable FedEx points on offer for the winner of the 2025 US Open along with a long list of exemptions.

We've already delved into some of the prime value picks ahead of the tournament, but what are the other things to consider?

Bryson DeChambeau (7/1 Coral) will defend after coming from behind at Pinehurst to take down Rory McIlroy by a solitary stroke with, Tony Finau (80/1 Ladbrokes) and Patrick Cantlay one shot further back. 

DeChambeau and McIlroy were the final pairing in the Masters this year and will be looking to do battle down the stretch again. A certain Scottie Scheffler might have something to say about that though.

Keep an eye on Canadian Open winner Ryan Fox (100/1 BetMGM) who has now won two of his last four golf tournaments on US soil. 

US Open Odds: Top of the betting market  

Scottie Scheffler (11/4 BetMGM) comes to the US Open with three wins in his last four starts. He went back-to-back at Memorial, which is a good primer for the Oakmont test where fairways are surrounded by thick rough and greens are lightning fast. We haven’t seen a shorter priced market leader in a major for several years.

Rory McIlroy (10/1 Betway) completed the career grand slam only two months ago and has been runner up in the last two US Opens. The Irishman says he is struggling for motivation right now. This was portrayed at the Canadian Open where Rory put in an abysmal performance to miss the cut on a total of nine-over par. 

Add to this Bryson’s performance on the LIV Golf Tour in Virginia where he finished t4, and they have swapped positions in the US Open betting market. There has been a large drift on McIlroy’s US Open odds.

Jon Rahm (12/1 Betway) is keeping up the good form also, recording another top 10 at LIV Golf Virginia and the Spaniard was neck-and-neck with Scheffler with about eight holes to go in the PGA Championship. Don’t rule out Rahmbo who is sneaking into third place in the odds.

Xander Schauffele is yet to hit full throttle this season, but he is simmering nicely and 22/1 with BetMGM could prove to be some nice value on the American.

I’m going to go with Ludvig Aberg purely down to his price drift. The Swede should enjoy the Oakmont test with his solid tee to green game, and he is returning to form with t16 and t13 finishes at Memorial and the Canadian Open. Aberg is ranking in the top twelve for both ‘strokes gained off the tee and ‘proximity to the hole’.

Another player who will be well suited to Oakmont is Colin Morikawa who sits no.4 in the world rankings. By all accounts it is going to be about fairways and greens at Oakmont and Morikawa sits second in ‘driving accuracy’ and sixth in ‘strokes gained approach’. Morikawa has an average finishing position inside the top 10 in his last four US Opens and already has two major championship titles to his name.

I can’t leave Shane Lowry out given his current form and his portrayal of course fit last time out at Oakmont. Lowry is arguably the form player on the PGA tour this year in terms of long-term consistency and he was up there again in Canada last week. Lowry narrowly missed out to Sepp Straka in the Truist Championship and was visibly upset. He was second to good friend McIlroy at Pebble Beach – another ‘signature event’. The Irishman is second in both ‘strokes gained approach and ‘strokes gained tee to green’ this season.

Sepp Straka (33/1 BetMGM), Tommy Fleetwood (33/1 Betway) and Patrick Cantlay (30/1 Ladbrokes) will also be attracting some of my hard earned if you fancy some alternatives to the above trio at slightly better prices or terms, while Joaquin Niemann grabbed LIV Golf win number four of the season in Washington.

FIRST’s top tip for the US Open 

Fairways and greens are the name of the game at Oakmont and there’s no one better right now than Collin Morikawa at plotting his way around a golf course. Back the two-time major winner at 28/1 each way (seven places) with BetMGM.

Extra US Open tips 

It's Shane Lowry ‘take two’ at Oakmont and he will have learned a lot from his 2016 US Open exploits. He is one of the finest strikers in the game right now. Back the Irishman at 33/1 each way (eight places) with Betway.

I also think there’s some value in the prices of Aberg, Straka, Fleetwood, and Cantlay. An alternative option is to back them respectively at 5/1, 8/1, 8/1 and 8/1 for a top five finish with Ladbrokes or Coral.

US Open: Value bets 

I’m going to concentrate more on the subsidiary markets here and take on some guys from left field. 

Sam Burns might not fall exactly into that category given his numbers are back where they should be with five top 20 finishes in his last seven starts. Burns was unlucky to lose out at the RBC Canadian Open for us last week. The big man ranks no.1 for putting in the field. 

Thorbjorn Olesen has been finding some great form and low numbers of late and qualified for the US Open with two rounds of 67 at Lambton Golf and Country Club. “Thunder bear” knows how to go low, and he recorded recent t5 and t7 finishes at the Valero Texas Open and the Myrtle Beach Classic. Olesen was 33rd in the PGA Championship and looks a good bet in the US Open side markets.

Maverick McNealy is another player sneaking under the radar and back into some good form with a top five finish at Jack’s place. McNealy was also recently t3 at the RBC Heritage and the Valero Texas Open. McNealy is another man who knows how to take it low. His stats in all key departments of the game are solid in 2025.

FIRST’s top value tips for the US Open  

Sam Burns had a year off mentally, bringing up his first child. He’s back full throttle now and available at 55/1 each way (ten places) with Coral and Ladbrokes. Back Burns first round leader each way (seven places) at 66/1 with BetMGM.

Thorbjorn Olesen can shoot some low numbers, and the Norwegian is available at 125/1 (five places) each way with Ladbrokes in the first-round leader market. Olesen can be backed at 5/1 for a top 20 finish with Spreadex.

Maverick McNeraly is 90/1 each way (seven places) in the first-round leader market with BetMGM and he is known for starting fast. Back McNealy at 16/5 for a top 20 finish with BetMGM.